Linking Public Investment Programs and SPAHD Macro Models : Methodology and Application to Aid Requirements

The authors propose a "bottom up" approach to link public investment programs with a class of macro models recently developed to quantify Strategy Papers for Human Development (SPAHD) in low-income countries. The methodology involves establishing constant-price projections of investment outlays (disaggregated into infrastructure, education, and health), spending on maintenance and other goods and services, salaries, and user charges. These estimates are incorporated in a SPAHD macro framework to calculate, under alternative scenarios, domestic financing, foreign borrowing, and aid requirements. The authors also evaluate the impact on growth and indicators associated with the Millennium Development Goals. They use illustrative applications, based on a SPAHD model for Niger, to highlight the link between tax reform and aid requirements.

Bibliographic Details

Main Authors:	Agénor, Pierre-Richard, Bayraktar, Nihal, Pinto Moreira, Emmanuel
Language:	English
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2006-06
Subjects:	ACCESS TO SAFE WATER, ACCOUNTING, ADJUSTMENT POLICIES, AGGREGATE DEMAND, ALLOCATION, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, BUDGET BALANCE, BUDGET CONSTRAINT, BUDGET DEFICIT, BUDGET FRAMEWORK, CALIBRATION PROCESS, CAPITAL EXPENDITURE, CAPITAL EXPENDITURES, CAPITAL INFLOWS, CAPITAL STOCK, CENTRAL BANK, COMPREHENSIVE DEVELOPMENT, CONDITIONALITY, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE, CONTINGENT LIABILITIES, DEBT, DEBT RELIEF, DEBT SERVICING, DEBT SUSTAINABILITY, DEFICITS, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES, DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES, DISEASES, DISPOSABLE INCOME, DISTRIBUTIONAL ISSUES, DOMESTIC BORROWING, DOMESTIC GOOD, DOMESTIC MARKET, DOMESTIC TAX, DOMESTIC TAXATION, ECONOMIC COOPERATION, ECONOMIC GROWTH, EDUCATION, EDUCATION SYSTEM, EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT, ELASTICITIES, ELASTICITY, ELECTRICITY, EXOGENOUS VARIABLES, EXPENDITURE DATA, EXPENDITURES, EXPORTS, EXTERNAL FINANCING, FISCAL ACCOUNTS, FIXED CAPITAL, FOREIGN BORROWING, FOREIGN CAPITAL, FOREIGN DEBT, FORMAL ANALYSIS, GDP, GOVERNMENT BUDGET, GOVERNMENT DEBT, GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE, GOVERNMENT SPENDING, GROWTH, GROWTH RATE, HEALTH, HEALTH SERVICES, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, HUMAN LIFE, IMPACT ON HEALTH, INCOME, INFANT, INFANT MORTALITY, INFANT MORTALITY RATE, INFANT MORTALITY RATES, INFRASTRUCTURE SERVICES, INTEREST PAYMENTS, INTEREST RATE, INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, INVENTORY, INVESTMENT, INVESTMENT FLOWS, INVESTMENT NEEDS, INVESTMENT PROJECTS, LABOR MARKET, LABOR SUPPLY, LIFE EXPECTANCY, LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES, LOW-INCOME COUNTRY, MACROECONOMIC FRAMEWORK, MACROECONOMIC MODEL, MACROECONOMIC MODELS, MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES, MACROECONOMICS, MAINTENANCE, MEDIUM-TERM EXPENDITURE, MEDIUM-TERM EXPENDITURE FRAMEWORKS, MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS, MORAL HAZARD, NEGATIVE EXTERNALITIES, NET EXPORTS, NET FOREIGN ASSETS, NET PRESENT VALUE, PER CAPITA INCOME, POLICY DECISIONS, POLICY IMPLICATIONS, POLICY RESEARCH, POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER, POLITICAL ECONOMY, POOR HOUSEHOLDS, POPULATION DENSITY, POVERTY REDUCTION, POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGIES, PRIMARY DEFICITS, PRIVATE CAPITAL, PRIVATE CONSUMPTION, PRIVATE INVESTMENT, PRIVATE SAVINGS, PRIVATE SECTOR, PROGRESS, PROVISION OF HEALTH SERVICES, PUBLIC, PUBLIC ASSETS, PUBLIC CAPITAL, PUBLIC DEBT, PUBLIC EDUCATION, PUBLIC ENTERPRISES, PUBLIC EXPENDITURE, PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE, PUBLIC INVESTMENT, PUBLIC INVESTMENT IN EDUCATION, PUBLIC INVESTMENT IN INFRASTRUCTURE, PUBLIC INVESTMENT PROGRAM, PUBLIC INVESTMENT PROGRAMS, PUBLIC INVESTMENTS, PUBLIC SECTOR, PUBLIC SECTOR EMPLOYEES, PUBLIC SERVICES, PUBLIC SPENDING, PUBLIC UTILITIES, RATE OF GROWTH, RATE OF INVESTMENT, RATE OF RETURN, REAL EXCHANGE RATE, REAL INCOME, ROADS, SAFE DRINKING WATER, SAVINGS, SIDE EFFECTS, SOCIAL INDICATORS, STATE UNIVERSITY, TAX, TAX EFFORT, TAX PAYMENTS, TAX POLICY, TAX RATE, TAX RATES, TAX REFORM, TAX REVENUE, TAX REVENUES, TAXATION, TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE, TELECOMMUNICATIONS, TOTAL SPENDING, UNEMPLOYMENT, USER CHARGES, USER FEES, WAGES,
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2006/06/6889027/linking-public-investment-programs-spahd-macro-models-methodology-application-aid-requirements https://hdl.handle.net/10986/8386
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