Millions of people emigrate every year
in search of better economic and social opportunities.
Anecdotal evidence suggests that emigrants may have
over-optimistic expectations about the incomes they can earn
abroad, resulting in excessive migration pressure, and in
disappointment among those who do migrate. Yet there is
almost no statistical evidence on how accurately these
emigrants predict the incomes that they will earn working
abroad. In this paper the authors combine a natural
emigration experiment with unique survey data on would-be
emigrants' probabilistic expectations about employment
and incomes in the migration destination. Their procedure
enables them to obtain moments and quantiles of the
subjective distribution of expected earnings in the
destination country. The authors find a significant
underestimation of both unconditional and conditional labor
earnings at all points in the distribution. This
underestimation appears driven in part by potential migrants
placing too much weight on the negative employment
experiences of some migrants, and by inaccurate information
flows from extended family, who may be trying to moderate
remittance demands by understating incomes.
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: |
McKenzie, David,
Gibson, John,
Stillman, Steven |
Format: | Policy Research Working Paper
biblioteca
|
Language: | English |
Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2007-03
|
Subjects: | CHILD MORTALITY,
CITIZEN,
DEPENDENT CHILDREN,
DESTINATION COUNTRY,
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES,
DIASPORA,
DISTRIBUTION OF WAGES,
EARNING,
EARNINGS,
EARNINGS DISTRIBUTION,
EARNINGS OF IMMIGRANTS,
ECONOMIC MIGRANTS,
EMIGRATION,
EMPLOYMENT PROBABILITIES,
EMPLOYMENT STATUS,
EXPECTED WAGE,
EXTENDED FAMILY,
FAMILY MEMBERS,
FAMILY REUNIFICATION,
HOUSEHOLD INCOME,
HOUSEHOLD SURVEY,
IMMIGRANT,
IMMIGRANTS,
IMMIGRATION,
IMMIGRATION QUOTA,
INCOMES,
JOB OFFER,
JOB OFFERS,
JOB OPPORTUNITIES,
JOBS,
LABOR MARKET,
LABOR MARKET INFORMATION,
LABOUR,
LABOUR MARKET,
LABOUR MARKET INFORMATION,
LARGE NUMBER OF PEOPLE,
LOTTERY,
LOW EMPLOYMENT,
MIGRANT,
MIGRANT NETWORKS,
MIGRATION,
MIGRATION PROCESS,
MOTHER,
NEW ZEALAND DOLLARS,
POLICY CHANGE,
POLICY RESEARCH,
POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER,
POTENTIAL MIGRANTS,
PROGRESS,
PUBLIC POLICY,
PUBLIC SECTOR WORKERS,
REMITTANCE,
REMITTANCES,
RESPECT,
SEX,
SKILLED MIGRANTS,
SOCIAL OPPORTUNITIES,
SOCIAL PROBLEMS,
SPOUSE,
TELEVISION,
UNEMPLOYMENT,
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE,
UNEMPLOYMENT RATES,
WAGE DISTRIBUTION,
WAGE GROWTH,
WAGES,
WEALTH,
WORKERS,
YOUNG PEOPLE, |
Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2007/03/7405775/land-milk-honey-streets-paved-gold-emigrants-over-optimistic-expectations-incomes-abroad
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/7161
|
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