Evaluating the Trade Effect of Developing Regional Trade Agreements : A Semi-parametric Approach
Many recent papers have pointed to
ambiguous trade effects of developing regional trade
agreements (RTAs), calling for a reassessment of their
economic merits. The author focuses on seven such agreements
currently in force in Sub-Saharan Africa (ECOWAS and SADC),
Asia (AFTA and SAPTA) and Latin America (CACM, CAN, and
MERCOSUR), estimating their impacts on their members'
trade flows. Instead of the usual dummy variables for RTAs,
he proposes a variable taking into account the number of
years of membership. He then combines a gravity model with
kernel estimation techniques to capture the non-monotonic
trade effects while imposing minimal structure on the model.
The results indicate that except for SAPTA, these RTAs have
had a positive impact on their members' intra-trade
over the estimation period (1960-99). AFTA seems to be the
most successful among them, with an estimated positive
impact on its members' imports from the rest of the
world (hence no trade diversion), but its impact on their
exports to the rest of the world is rather limited. During
its first 10 years of existence, ECOWAS appears to have had
a positive impact on its members' imports from the rest
of the world (hence no trade diversion), but this positive
impact vanished over time. SAPTA's negative impact on
its members' intra-trade is probably an implicit effect
of the India-Pakistan tensions over the estimation period.
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Bibliographic Details
| Main Author: |
Coulibaly, Souleymane |
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| Format: | Policy Research Working Paper
biblioteca
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| Language: | English |
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| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2007-05
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| Subjects: | BILATERAL TRADE,
CENTRAL AMERICAN,
COMMON MARKET,
COMPETITIVENESS,
CURRENCY,
CUSTOMS,
CUSTOMS UNION,
DATE OF ENTRY INTO FORCE,
DEFLATION,
ECONOMETRICS,
ECONOMIC COMMUNITY,
EXPORT PRICE,
EXPORT QUANTITIES,
EXPORT VOLUME,
EXPORTERS,
EXPORTS,
FREE TRADE,
FREE TRADE AGREEMENT,
FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS,
GDP,
GDP DEFLATOR,
GLOBAL ECONOMY,
GRAVITY EQUATION,
GRAVITY MODEL,
GRAVITY MODELS,
GRAVITY VARIABLES,
IMPORTS,
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS,
INTERNATIONAL FINANCE,
INTERNATIONAL TRADE,
INTRAREGIONAL TRADE,
MEMBER COUNTRIES,
MEMBER COUNTRY,
NET TRADE CREATION,
POLICY RESEARCH,
PREFERENTIAL AGREEMENT,
PREFERENTIAL ARRANGEMENT,
PREFERENTIAL TRADE,
PREFERENTIAL TRADE AGREEMENT,
PREFERENTIAL TRADE ARRANGEMENTS,
PRICE INDEX,
REAL EXCHANGE RATE,
REGIONAL AGREEMENTS,
REGIONAL TRADE,
REGIONAL TRADE AGREEMENT,
REGIONAL TRADE AGREEMENTS,
REGIONAL TRADE ARRANGEMENTS,
REGIONAL TRADING ARRANGEMENTS,
REGIONALISM,
RULES OF ORIGIN,
SOUTH ASIAN,
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA,
TRADE AGREEMENT,
TRADE BLOCS,
TRADE CREATING,
TRADE CREATION,
TRADE DIVERSION,
TRADE EFFECT,
TRADE EFFECTS,
TRADE FLOW,
TRADE FLOWS,
TRADE IMPACT,
TRADE MORE,
TRADE ORIENTATION,
TRADE POLICIES,
TRADE POLICY,
TRADING PARTNERS,
WORLD TRADE,
WTO, |
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2007/05/7558207/evaluating-trade-effect-developing-regional-trade-agreements-semi-parametric-approach
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/7090
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