A Ricardian Analysis of the Distribution of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture across Agro-Ecological Zones in Africa

This paper examines the distribution of climate change impacts across the 16 agro-ecological zones in Africa using data from the Food and Agriculture Organization combined with economic survey data from a Global Environment Facility/World Bank project. Net revenue per hectare of cropland is regressed on a set of climate, soil, and socio-economic variables using different econometric specifications "with" and "without" country fixed effects. Country fixed effects slightly reduce predicted future climate related damage to agriculture. With a mild climate scenario, African farmers gain income from climate change; with a more severe scenario, they lose income. Some locations are more affected than others. The analysis of agro-ecological zones implies that the effects of climate change will vary across Africa. For example, currently productive areas such as dry/moist savannah are more vulnerable to climate change while currently less productive agricultural zones such as humid forest or sub-humid zones become more productive in the future. The agro-ecological zone classification can help explain the variation of impacts across the landscape.

Bibliographic Details

Main Authors:	Seo, S. Niggol, Mendelsohn, Robert, Dinar, Ariel, Hassan, Rashid, Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep
Language:	English
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2008-04
Subjects:	AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES, AGRICULTURAL PRICES, AGRICULTURE, ALTITUDE, ANIMAL HUSBANDRY, ARID AREAS, ARID ZONE, ARID ZONES, CLIMATE, CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE CHANGES, CLIMATE DYNAMICS, CLIMATE MODELS, CLIMATE SENSITIVITY, CLIMATE VARIABLES, CLIMATE ZONES, CLIMATES, CLIMATIC CHANGE, CLOUDS, COMMERCIAL FARMS, CROP INCOME, CROP VARIETIES, CROPLAND, DESERTS, ECOLOGICAL ZONES, ECONOMIC SURVEYS, ELECTRICITY, EMISSION, EVAPOTRANSPIRATION, FARM HOUSEHOLDS, FARM INCOME, FARM INCOMES, FARMER, FARMERS, FOOD SECURITY, FOREST, FORESTRY, FORESTS, GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT, GLOBAL WARMING, GREENHOUSE GAS, GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS, GREENHOUSE GASES, HUMID ZONE, HUMID ZONES, HYDROLOGY, HYDROMETEOROLOGY, INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE, IPCC, IRRIGATION, LATIN AMERICAN, LIVESTOCK INCOME, LIVESTOCK MANAGEMENT, LIVESTOCK SECTOR, LIVESTOCK SPECIES, NET INCOME, PASTURE, PRECIPITATION, PUBLIC LAND, RAIN, RAINFALL, RUNOFF, SAHARA, SATELLITES, SOIL, SOILS, SOUTH AMERICAN, SULFATE, SURFACE TEMPERATURE, TEMPERATURE, TEMPERATURE DATA, WATER FOR IRRIGATION, WEATHER, WELFARE MEASURE,
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2008/04/9365569/ricardian-analysis-distribution-climate-change-impacts-agriculture-across-agro-ecological-zones-africa https://hdl.handle.net/10986/6762
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