Breaking the Waves? Does Education Mediate the Relationship Between Youth Bulges and Political Violence?

Much of the developing world has experienced a decline in mortality, while fertility often has remained high. This has produced youthful populations in many countries, generally referred to as "youth bulges." Recent empirical research suggests that youth bulges may be associated with increased risks of political violence and conflict. This paper addresses ways that education may serve as a strategy to reduce the risk of political violence, particularly in the context of large cohorts of young males. The authors use a new education dataset measuring educational attainment. The dataset is constructed using demographic back-projection techniques, and offers uninterrupted time-series data for 120 countries. The empirical analysis finds evidence that large, young male population bulges are more likely to increase the risk of conflict in societies where male secondary education is low. The effect on conflict risk by low education and large youth populations is particularly strong in low and middle-income countries. This is especially challenging for Sub-Saharan Africa, the region facing the youngest age structure and the lowest educational attainment levels. Although quantitative studies generally find a strong relationship between indicators of development and conflict risk, the results suggest that poor countries do have some leverage over reducing conflict potential through increased educational opportunities for young people. There is further evidence that the interaction of large youth cohorts and low education levels may be mediated by structural economic factors. The study supports broad policy interventions in education by relaxing concerns about the consequences of rapid educational expansion.

Bibliographic Details

Main Authors:	Barakat, Bilal, Urdal, Henrik
Format:	Policy Research Working Paper biblioteca
Language:	English
Published:	2009-11-01
Subjects:	ACCESS TO EDUCATION, ADULT POPULATION, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, ARMED CONFLICT, BASIC EDUCATION, BOTH SEXES, CENSUSES, CENTER FOR DEVELOPMENT, CIVIL CONFLICT, CIVIL WAR, CONTINUOUS EDUCATION, CURRICULA, DEMOCRACY, DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE, DEPENDENCY RATIO, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES, ECONOMIC PROGRESS, EDUCATION FOR ALL, EDUCATION VARIABLES, EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT, EDUCATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS, EDUCATIONAL OPPORTUNITIES, EDUCATIONAL PLANNING, EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES, ENROLLMENT, FEMALE EDUCATION, FERTILITY, FERTILITY TRANSITION, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, GENDER DISPARITIES, GENDER DISPARITIES IN EDUCATION, GENOCIDE, GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS, HUMAN CAPITAL, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, IMPORTANT POLICY, INFANT, INFANT MORTALITY, INFANT MORTALITY RATE, INFANT MORTALITY RATES, INTERVENTIONS, INVESTMENTS IN EDUCATION, LABOR FORCE, LABOR MARKET, LABOR MARKETS, LACK OF INFORMATION, LEVEL OF DEVELOPMENT, LEVEL OF EDUCATION, LEVELS OF EDUCATION, LIVING CONDITIONS, MALE YOUTH, MANUALS, MIGRANTS, MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS, MORTALITY, NATIONAL EDUCATION, NATURAL RESOURCE, NATURAL RESOURCES, OLD MALES, OLD MEN, PEACE, PERPETRATORS OF VIOLENCE, POLICY FORMULATION, POLICY IMPLICATIONS, POLICY RESEARCH, POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER, POLITICAL CHANGE, POLITICAL UNREST, POPULATION ACTION, POPULATION ACTION INTERNATIONAL, POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT, POPULATION DIVISION, POPULATION DYNAMICS, POPULATION ESTIMATES, POPULATION MATTERS, POPULATION SIZE, PRACTITIONERS, PRIMARY EDUCATION, PRIMARY ENROLLMENT, PRIMARY ENROLLMENT RATES, PRIMARY SCHOOL, PRIMARY SCHOOLING, PROGRESS, PURCHASING POWER, RISK FACTORS, SECONDARY EDUCATION, SECONDARY SCHOOL, SECONDARY SCHOOLING, SEX, SOCIAL COHESION, SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT, SOCIAL RESEARCH, SOCIAL UNREST, SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, TERTIARY EDUCATION, TERTIARY LEVEL, TEXTBOOKS, UNEMPLOYMENT, UNFPA, UNITED NATIONS POPULATION FUND, URBANIZATION, VIOLENCE, WAGES, WARS, WORLD POPULATION, YOUNG MALE, YOUNG MALES, YOUNG MEN, YOUNG PEOPLE, YOUTH, YOUTH EMPLOYMENT, YOUTH MOVEMENTS, YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT,
Online Access:	http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20091105103139 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4304
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