Moving to Adaptation?
Using data on the paths of all hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin from 1992 to 2017, this paper studies whether migration has served as a form of adaptation to hurricane risk. The findings show that on average hurricanes have little to no impact on county out-migration, with population-weighted exposure to hurricanes increasing slightly over the sample period. Counties with high economic activity see net in-migration in the years after a hurricane. Further, return migration likely plays a role in offsetting any out-migration in the year of the storm. The intensity of pre-hurricane migration between county pairs is a strong predictor of excess migration after a hurricane, suggesting that existing economic and social ties dominate in post-hurricane migration decisions. Given existing policies and incentives, the economic and social benefits that people derive from living in high-risk areas currently outweigh the incentive to adapt to future storms by relocating across counties.
Main Authors: | , |
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Format: | Working Paper biblioteca |
Language: | English English |
Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2023-07-27
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Subjects: | CYCLONES, CLIMATE CHANGE, ADAPTATION TO RISK, MIGRATION, |
Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099315507272320722/IDU094cddbee04f5004bcf083120ff7d068d8c5a https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/40119 |
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Summary: | Using data on the paths of all
hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin from 1992 to 2017, this
paper studies whether migration has served as a form of
adaptation to hurricane risk. The findings show that on
average hurricanes have little to no impact on county
out-migration, with population-weighted exposure to
hurricanes increasing slightly over the sample period.
Counties with high economic activity see net in-migration in
the years after a hurricane. Further, return migration
likely plays a role in offsetting any out-migration in the
year of the storm. The intensity of pre-hurricane migration
between county pairs is a strong predictor of excess
migration after a hurricane, suggesting that existing
economic and social ties dominate in post-hurricane
migration decisions. Given existing policies and incentives,
the economic and social benefits that people derive from
living in high-risk areas currently outweigh the incentive
to adapt to future storms by relocating across counties. |
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