Rwanda Economic Update, June 2023

The Rwanda Economic Update No. 21 reviews the country’s macroeconomic performance and prospects and includes a special section focusing on the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the domestic economy. After growing by 8.2 percent in 2022, Real GDP expanded by 9.2 percent in the first quarter of 2023. However, this growth momentum may have been halted by disastrous flooding and landslides from the recent rains. Inflation has eased but remained well above the National Bank of Rwanda (NBR) target range in the first half of 2023, despite a tightening of monetary policy since January 2022. Rwanda’s current account deficit improved in 2022, with higher export revenues and remittances outweighing rising import prices. The fiscal deficit narrowed in FY2022-23 thanks to a large decline in public spending, and strong growth which combined to reduce Rwanda’s debt as a share of GDP. Prospects for continued high growth are good, and the fiscal and debt positions are expected to improve over the next few years. The special topic emphasizes the large size of FDI inflows, encouraged by a favorable regulatory environment and improvements in governance. FDI in Rwanda appears to generate significant employment benefits, both in terms of job creation by FDI firms and related increases in hiring by domestic firms. FDI firms also appear to have strong linkages with local firms, particularly domestic suppliers, and tend to provide higher-quality jobs than domestic firms, in terms of access to social security. However, forecasts of the volume of inflows and of employment provided when registering with the Rwanda Development Board turned out to be highly optimistic, raising concerns on both limits on FDI firms and the potential for misrepresentation to gain access to incentives. FDI projects tend to be concentrated in Kigali and surrounding districts, which have much lower poverty rates than the national average, and in general there is a negative association between the level of poverty and FDI inflows. Policies to improve the impact of FDI on inclusiveness could involve encouraging FDI projects in poorer districts, promoting greater participation by women and youths, enhancing corporate social responsibility initiatives, strengthening the monitoring and ex post performance assessment of FDI, improving linkages between FDI projects and domestic suppliers, and encouraging the home country of investors to enforce mandatory standards that enhance the sustainability and inclusivity of FDI.

Bibliographic Details

Main Author:	World Bank
Format:	Report biblioteca
Language:	English en_US
Published:	Washington, DC: World Bank 2023-07-11
Subjects:	MACROECONOMY, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, FDI, GDP, JOB CREATION,
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099070923155527476/P17745709838710d3087f70cae21a865046 https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/39975
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