Uncertainty in Preferential Trade Agreements
This study examines the impact of the abrupt suspension of African Growth and Opportunity Act benefits on exports from eligible African countries. The study uses a triple difference-in-differences estimation that controls for both country- and product-level export changes. The results suggest that the suspension of the African Growth and Opportunity Act has had a considerable negative impact on the level of exports to the United States. The impact appears to be bigger for countries with a high African Growth and Opportunity Act utilization rate. The suspension is associated with a 39 percent decline in exports to the United States. At the product level, the suspension hurt apparel and textile exports, leading to a decline of their exports by about 88 percent. Understanding the impact of withdrawing access to a nonreciprocal trade agreement is particularly important now, as the European Union began negotiating Economic Partnership Agreements with African countries, as a sign of a shift to reciprocity; the United States is considering a similar path of negotiating free trade agreements with individual African countries. These developments underscore the need to prepare for a post–African Growth and Opportunity Act period with more reciprocity, as trade uncertainty is becoming rampant.
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Format: | Working Paper biblioteca |
Language: | English English |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2023-05-01
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Subjects: | AFRICA GROWTH AND OPPORTUNITY ACT (ACGOA), PREFERENTIAL TRADE AGREEMENT, EXPORT UNCERTAINTY, EXPORT DECLINE, FREE TRADE AGREEMENT, RECIPROCITY, APPAREL AND TEXTILE EXPORTS, |
Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099212404272329040/IDU0e80fbc010cd72049ca0a9560a77e6c4bf776 https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/39754 |
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dig-okr-10986397542024-07-17T11:30:02Z Uncertainty in Preferential Trade Agreements Impact of AGOA Suspensions on Exports Edjigu, Habtamu Hakobyan, Shushanik Kassa, Woubet AFRICA GROWTH AND OPPORTUNITY ACT (ACGOA) PREFERENTIAL TRADE AGREEMENT EXPORT UNCERTAINTY EXPORT DECLINE FREE TRADE AGREEMENT RECIPROCITY APPAREL AND TEXTILE EXPORTS This study examines the impact of the abrupt suspension of African Growth and Opportunity Act benefits on exports from eligible African countries. The study uses a triple difference-in-differences estimation that controls for both country- and product-level export changes. The results suggest that the suspension of the African Growth and Opportunity Act has had a considerable negative impact on the level of exports to the United States. The impact appears to be bigger for countries with a high African Growth and Opportunity Act utilization rate. The suspension is associated with a 39 percent decline in exports to the United States. At the product level, the suspension hurt apparel and textile exports, leading to a decline of their exports by about 88 percent. Understanding the impact of withdrawing access to a nonreciprocal trade agreement is particularly important now, as the European Union began negotiating Economic Partnership Agreements with African countries, as a sign of a shift to reciprocity; the United States is considering a similar path of negotiating free trade agreements with individual African countries. These developments underscore the need to prepare for a post–African Growth and Opportunity Act period with more reciprocity, as trade uncertainty is becoming rampant. 2023-05-01T16:30:51Z 2023-05-01T16:30:51Z 2023-05-01 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099212404272329040/IDU0e80fbc010cd72049ca0a9560a77e6c4bf776 https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/39754 English en Policy Research Working Papers; 10424 CC BY 3.0 IGO https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank application/pdf text/plain World Bank, Washington, DC |
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AFRICA GROWTH AND OPPORTUNITY ACT (ACGOA) PREFERENTIAL TRADE AGREEMENT EXPORT UNCERTAINTY EXPORT DECLINE FREE TRADE AGREEMENT RECIPROCITY APPAREL AND TEXTILE EXPORTS AFRICA GROWTH AND OPPORTUNITY ACT (ACGOA) PREFERENTIAL TRADE AGREEMENT EXPORT UNCERTAINTY EXPORT DECLINE FREE TRADE AGREEMENT RECIPROCITY APPAREL AND TEXTILE EXPORTS |
spellingShingle |
AFRICA GROWTH AND OPPORTUNITY ACT (ACGOA) PREFERENTIAL TRADE AGREEMENT EXPORT UNCERTAINTY EXPORT DECLINE FREE TRADE AGREEMENT RECIPROCITY APPAREL AND TEXTILE EXPORTS AFRICA GROWTH AND OPPORTUNITY ACT (ACGOA) PREFERENTIAL TRADE AGREEMENT EXPORT UNCERTAINTY EXPORT DECLINE FREE TRADE AGREEMENT RECIPROCITY APPAREL AND TEXTILE EXPORTS Edjigu, Habtamu Hakobyan, Shushanik Kassa, Woubet Uncertainty in Preferential Trade Agreements |
description |
This study examines the impact of the
abrupt suspension of African Growth and Opportunity Act
benefits on exports from eligible African countries. The
study uses a triple difference-in-differences estimation
that controls for both country- and product-level export
changes. The results suggest that the suspension of the
African Growth and Opportunity Act has had a considerable
negative impact on the level of exports to the United
States. The impact appears to be bigger for countries with a
high African Growth and Opportunity Act utilization rate.
The suspension is associated with a 39 percent decline in
exports to the United States. At the product level, the
suspension hurt apparel and textile exports, leading to a
decline of their exports by about 88 percent. Understanding
the impact of withdrawing access to a nonreciprocal trade
agreement is particularly important now, as the European
Union began negotiating Economic Partnership Agreements with
African countries, as a sign of a shift to reciprocity; the
United States is considering a similar path of negotiating
free trade agreements with individual African countries.
These developments underscore the need to prepare for a
post–African Growth and Opportunity Act period with more
reciprocity, as trade uncertainty is becoming rampant. |
format |
Working Paper |
topic_facet |
AFRICA GROWTH AND OPPORTUNITY ACT (ACGOA) PREFERENTIAL TRADE AGREEMENT EXPORT UNCERTAINTY EXPORT DECLINE FREE TRADE AGREEMENT RECIPROCITY APPAREL AND TEXTILE EXPORTS |
author |
Edjigu, Habtamu Hakobyan, Shushanik Kassa, Woubet |
author_facet |
Edjigu, Habtamu Hakobyan, Shushanik Kassa, Woubet |
author_sort |
Edjigu, Habtamu |
title |
Uncertainty in Preferential Trade Agreements |
title_short |
Uncertainty in Preferential Trade Agreements |
title_full |
Uncertainty in Preferential Trade Agreements |
title_fullStr |
Uncertainty in Preferential Trade Agreements |
title_full_unstemmed |
Uncertainty in Preferential Trade Agreements |
title_sort |
uncertainty in preferential trade agreements |
publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
publishDate |
2023-05-01 |
url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099212404272329040/IDU0e80fbc010cd72049ca0a9560a77e6c4bf776 https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/39754 |
work_keys_str_mv |
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1806032384236191744 |