Poverty and Violence : The Immediate Impact of Terrorist Attacks against Civilians in Somalia

Somalia, one of the poorest countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, still faces many challenges as it remains fragile. Terrorist groups and their attacks are threatening the government and limiting its capacity to implement effective development policies. Using difference-in-difference and instrumental variables approaches with micro-data from two waves of the Somali High Frequency Survey, this paper estimates the immediate (within a week) impact of terrorist attacks on households. The consumption of households exposed to terrorist incidents decreases by 33 percent, mainly on food items. As a result, poverty and the depth of poverty among the poor increases. The decline in consumption seems to be explained by a smaller share of household members working and earning income after an attack. In addition, the effect on consumption is restricted to a 4-kilometer radius from incidents and has a heterogeneous impact, not affecting households in the top 20 percent of the consumption distribution. The paper also finds a deterioration in people’s perception of police competence. Achieving peace is a fundamental first step to increase welfare conditions that will also bring other wider long-term benefits in Somalia.

Bibliographic Details

Main Authors:	Nunez-Chaim, Gonzalo, Pape, Utz Johann
Format:	Working Paper biblioteca
Language:	English English
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2022-09
Subjects:	SOMALI HIGH FREQUENCY SURVEY (SHFS), VIOLENCE MICRO DATA, NATIONAL SECURITY, POVERTY, CONFLICT, VULNERABILITY, ECONOMIC IMPACT OF TERRORISM, DECLINING FOOD CONSUMPTION, POLICE COMPETENCE,
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099415109082281442/IDU03861d1b0002f304b090b8c80ea73003b5ba6 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/37986
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