The Impact of Export Tax Incentives on Export Performance : Evidence from the Automotive Sector in South Africa
The original goal of the Motor Industry Development Program was to help the automotive industry in South Africa adjust to trade liberalization and become internationally competitive. In simple terms, it consists of an import/export complementation arrangement, whereby the local value-added of components or built-up vehicles exported earns credits that can be used to rebate import duties on components and vehicles. This study provides a first attempt at a quantitative analysis of the Motor Industry Development Program using the difference-in-difference methodology, in order to assess to what extent the program was effective in improving South Africa's automotive export performance during 1996-2006. The authors take a two-tier approach. First, they perform a comparative study using different manufacturing sectors within South Africa; second, they apply this methodology to analyze South Africa and a number of comparator countries that are automotive producers and exporters. The analysis finds that the impact of the program on automotive exports in South Africa is positive and significant. In particular, (i) the largest response to the program in terms of improved manufacturing exports occurs with a delay after the adoption of the law, suggesting that exports need time to fully react to the incentives; and (ii) in turn, the effectiveness of the tax incentives fades in time, reaffirming the common belief that tax incentives may affect some business decisions particularly in the short run, but they are not a primary consideration for investors in the long run.
Summary: | The original goal of the Motor Industry
Development Program was to help the automotive industry in
South Africa adjust to trade liberalization and become
internationally competitive. In simple terms, it consists of
an import/export complementation arrangement, whereby the
local value-added of components or built-up vehicles
exported earns credits that can be used to rebate import
duties on components and vehicles. This study provides a
first attempt at a quantitative analysis of the Motor
Industry Development Program using the
difference-in-difference methodology, in order to assess to
what extent the program was effective in improving South
Africa's automotive export performance during
1996-2006. The authors take a two-tier approach. First, they
perform a comparative study using different manufacturing
sectors within South Africa; second, they apply this
methodology to analyze South Africa and a number of
comparator countries that are automotive producers and
exporters. The analysis finds that the impact of the program
on automotive exports in South Africa is positive and
significant. In particular, (i) the largest response to the
program in terms of improved manufacturing exports occurs
with a delay after the adoption of the law, suggesting that
exports need time to fully react to the incentives; and (ii)
in turn, the effectiveness of the tax incentives fades in
time, reaffirming the common belief that tax incentives may
affect some business decisions particularly in the short
run, but they are not a primary consideration for investors
in the long run. |
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