Benefits and Costs of Debt
Government debt has risen substantially in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) since the global financial crisis. The current environment of low global interest rates and weak growth may appear to mitigate concerns about elevated debt levels. Considering currently subdued investment, additional government borrowing might also appear to be an attractive option for financing growth-enhancing initiatives such as investment in human and physical capital. However, history suggests caution. Despite low interest rates, debt was on a rising trajectory in half of EMDEs in 2018. In addition, the cost of rolling over debt can increase sharply during periods of financial stress and result in financial crises; elevated debt levels can limit the ability of governments to provide fiscal stimulus during downturns; and high debt can weigh on investment and long-term growth. Hence, EMDEs need to strike a careful balance between taking advantage of low interest rates and avoiding the potentially adverse consequences of excessive debt accumulation.
Main Authors: | , , |
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Format: | Working Paper biblioteca |
Language: | English |
Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2020-02
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Subjects: | DEBT SUSTAINABILITY, FISCAL POLICY, FISCAL TRENDS, FISCAL BALANCE, GOVERNMENT DEBT, PRIVATE DEBT, FISCAL POSITION, EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES, |
Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/648141582830563001/Benefits-and-Costs-of-Debt-The-Dose-Makes-the-Poison https://hdl.handle.net/10986/33409 |
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Summary: | Government debt has risen substantially
in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) since
the global financial crisis. The current environment of low
global interest rates and weak growth may appear to mitigate
concerns about elevated debt levels. Considering currently
subdued investment, additional government borrowing might
also appear to be an attractive option for financing
growth-enhancing initiatives such as investment in human and
physical capital. However, history suggests caution. Despite
low interest rates, debt was on a rising trajectory in half
of EMDEs in 2018. In addition, the cost of rolling over debt
can increase sharply during periods of financial stress and
result in financial crises; elevated debt levels can limit
the ability of governments to provide fiscal stimulus during
downturns; and high debt can weigh on investment and
long-term growth. Hence, EMDEs need to strike a careful
balance between taking advantage of low interest rates and
avoiding the potentially adverse consequences of excessive
debt accumulation. |
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