Three Feet Under
This paper analyses the degree to which infrastructure reliability and urban economic activity in several African cities is impacted by flooding. It combines firm-level micro data, flood maps, and several spatial data layers across cities through a harmonized geospatial network analysis. The analysis shows that a significant share of jobs in cities is directly affected by floods. It further details how transport infrastructure is subjected to significant flood risk that disproportionally affects main roads in many cities. While direct flood effects are revealed to be significant, this work further shows how knock-on implications for the entire urban economy might be even larger. Regardless of the direct flood exposure of firms, flooded transport networks mean that disruptions propagate across the city and drastically reduce the connectivity between firms. Access to hospitals is also found to be reduced significantly -- even during relatively light flooding events: From a third of locations in Kampala, floods mean that people would no longer be able to reach hospitals within the "golden hour" -- a rule of thumb referring to the window of time that maximizes the likelihood of survival after a severe medical incident. Overall, this study showcases the use of high-detail city-level analyses to better understand the localized impacts of natural hazards on urban infrastructure networks.
Main Authors: | , , , |
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Format: | Working Paper biblioteca |
Language: | English |
Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2019-06
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Subjects: | FLOOD, URBAN FLOODS, RESILIENT INFRASTRUCTURE, CONNECTIVITY, URBAN EMPLOYMENT, CITY DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY, NATURAL DISASTER, GEOSPATIAL NETWORK ANALYSIS, URBAN TRANSPORT, |
Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/410661560796289323/Three-Feet-Under-The-Impact-of-Floods-on-Urban-Jobs-Connectivity-and-Infrastructure https://hdl.handle.net/10986/31918 |
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Summary: | This paper analyses the degree to which
infrastructure reliability and urban economic activity in
several African cities is impacted by flooding. It combines
firm-level micro data, flood maps, and several spatial data
layers across cities through a harmonized geospatial network
analysis. The analysis shows that a significant share of
jobs in cities is directly affected by floods. It further
details how transport infrastructure is subjected to
significant flood risk that disproportionally affects main
roads in many cities. While direct flood effects are
revealed to be significant, this work further shows how
knock-on implications for the entire urban economy might be
even larger. Regardless of the direct flood exposure of
firms, flooded transport networks mean that disruptions
propagate across the city and drastically reduce the
connectivity between firms. Access to hospitals is also
found to be reduced significantly -- even during relatively
light flooding events: From a third of locations in Kampala,
floods mean that people would no longer be able to reach
hospitals within the "golden hour" -- a rule of
thumb referring to the window of time that maximizes the
likelihood of survival after a severe medical incident.
Overall, this study showcases the use of high-detail
city-level analyses to better understand the localized
impacts of natural hazards on urban infrastructure networks. |
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