Short-Term Impact of Brexit on the United Kingdom's Export of Goods

The short-term impact of Brexit on goods exports is assessed using the Overall Trade Restrictiveness Index of the United Kingdom's major trading partners. The analysis shows that in the short run, leaving the European Union may cause the United Kingdom's exports to the European Union to decrease by 2 percent, and the prospect of a major trade collapse post-Brexit is unlikely. This is because the European Union's Most Favored Nation (MFN) tariffs are higher on products that are less responsive to tariffs, and lower on products that are more responsive to tariffs. The study assumes that there are no further compliance costs associated with the existing nontariff measures facing firms in the United Kingdom, should the United Kingdom leave the European Union.