Taking Stock, June 2011

In the last few years, Vietnam's macroeconomic situation has followed a predictable pattern. When faced with external shocks the authorities have opted to protect the country's rapid growth rate, even if it meant tolerating higher levels of macroeconomic instability. This has meant modest growth slowdowns and frequent episodes of overheating. So when the economy started to overheat in late 2010 following the delayed withdrawal of the fiscal and monetary stimulus put in place in 2009, few expected a determined response from the government to stem the ensuing macroeconomic volatility. The current episode of macroeconomic instability has been as severe as the previous overheating episode of mid-2008. The author constructed a summary measure of macroeconomic instability, Vietnam Index of Macroeconomic Stability (VIMS), based on the movement of four variables, namely nominal exchange rate, international reserves, inflation rate and nominal interest rate. Our measure shows that the degree of macroeconomic instability during the current episode did come quite close to mid-2008, but has not surpassed it yet. But unlike 2008, when the level of instability increased sharply and fell immediately, instability has persisted over a longer period of time during the current episode, from November 2010 to February 2011, exposing Vietnam's economy to a prolonged period of nervousness and uncertainty.

Bibliographic Details

Main Author:	World Bank
Format:	Report biblioteca
Language:	English en_US
Published:	Washington, DC 2011-06
Subjects:	ACCOUNTING, ADVANCED ECONOMIES, AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES, ANNUAL GROWTH, ASSET PRICE, ASSET QUALITY, BALANCE OF PAYMENT, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTS CRISES, BANK MARKET, BANK PORTFOLIOS, BANK RATE, BANKING LAWS, BANKING SECTOR, BANKING SYSTEM, BENEFICIARIES, BOND SPREADS, BONDS, BROAD MONEY, CAPACITY BUILDING, CAPITAL ACCOUNT, CAPITAL ACCOUNTS, CAPITAL CONTROLS, CAPITAL FLIGHT, CAPITAL FLOWS, CAPITAL FORMATION, CAPITAL INFLOWS, CDS, CENTRAL RATE, COMMERCIAL BANKS, COMMODITY PRICES, CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION, CORPORATE GOVERNANCE, CORPORATE SAVINGS, CREDIBILITY, CREDIT DEFAULT, CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS, CREDIT GROWTH, CREDIT INSTITUTIONS, CREDITORS, CURRENCY CRISES, CURRENT ACCOUNT, CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT, CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS, DEBT, DEBT CRISIS, DEPOSIT, DEPOSITORS, DEPOSITS, DEPRECIATION, DEVALUATION, DEVALUATIONS, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPING COUNTRY, DISBURSEMENT, DISBURSEMENTS, DISCLOSURE OF INFORMATION, DISCLOSURE REQUIREMENTS, DISCOUNT RATE, DOMESTIC CAPITAL, DOMESTIC CREDIT, DOMESTIC DEMAND, DOMESTIC ECONOMY, DOMESTIC PRICES, DRAG ON GROWTH, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS, ECONOMIC DISRUPTION, ECONOMIC GROWTH, EMERGING MARKETS, EQUIPMENT, EQUIPMENTS, EQUITY MARKET, EXCHANGE RATE, EXCHANGE RATES, EXPENDITURE, EXPENDITURES, EXPORT PERFORMANCE, EXPORTER, EXTERNAL BALANCE, EXTERNAL SHOCKS, FINANCIAL CRISES, FINANCIAL SAVINGS, FINANCIAL SYSTEM, FISCAL DEFICIT, FISCAL DEFICITS, FISCAL POLICIES, FISCAL POLICY, FIXED INCOMES, FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATE, FOOD PRICE, FOREIGN CURRENCY, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET, FOREIGN INVESTMENT, FOREIGN INVESTMENTS, FOREIGN INVESTORS, GLOBAL DEMAND, GLOBAL ECONOMY, GOLD, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, HIGH INFLATION, HIGH-INCOME COUNTRIES, HOLDINGS, IMPORTS, INFLATION, INFLATION RATE, INFLATION RATES, INFLATIONARY EXPECTATIONS, INFLATIONARY PRESSURE, INFORMATION DISCLOSURE, INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY, INSURANCE, INTEREST RATE, INTEREST RATE VOLATILITY, INTEREST RATES, INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL, INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS, INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MARKETS, INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL STATISTICS, INTERNATIONAL PRICES, INTERNATIONAL RESERVES, INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, INVESTMENT INCOME, INVESTMENT PROJECTS, INVESTMENT SPENDING, ISSUANCE, LENDING INTEREST RATE, LIQUIDITY, LIQUIDITY PROBLEMS, LOAN, LOAN CLASSIFICATION, LOAN PORTFOLIO, LOAN PORTFOLIOS, LOCAL CURRENCY, LONG-TERM LOANS, MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS, MACROECONOMIC CRISIS, MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT, MACROECONOMIC INSTABILITY, MACROECONOMIC POLICIES, MACROECONOMIC RISKS, MACROECONOMIC STABILITY, MACROECONOMIC VOLATILITY, MARKET ACCESS, MARKET MECHANISM, MARKET SHARE, MATURITY, MINIMUM CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS, MONETARY POLICY, MONEY SUPPLY, NATURAL DISASTER, NEGATIVE SHOCKS, NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE, NOMINAL INTEREST RATE, NON-PERFORMING LOAN, NPL, OIL PRICES, OUTSTANDING CREDIT, OVERNIGHT REPO, PARALLEL MARKET, PENSIONS, POLICY CREDIBILITY, POLICY RESPONSES, POLITICAL TURMOIL, PORTFOLIO, PORTFOLIO FLOWS, PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT, PORTFOLIO INVESTMENTS, POST-CRISIS PERIOD, PREMATURE WITHDRAWAL, PRIVATE INVESTMENT, PUBLIC DEBT, PUBLIC FINANCE, PUBLIC INVESTMENT, PUBLIC SECTOR DEBT, PUBLIC SECTOR DEFICIT, RAPID GROWTH, REAL EXCHANGE RATE, RECURRENT EXPENDITURES, REGIONAL GROWTH, REGULATORY FRAMEWORK, REGULATORY SYSTEMS, REMITTANCES, REPO, REPO RATE, RESERVE, RESERVE REQUIREMENT, RESERVES, RETURN, RETURNS, RISK MANAGEMENT, RISK MANAGEMENT SYSTEM, SECURITY MARKET, SHARE OF INVESTMENT, SLOWDOWN, SLOWDOWNS, SOVEREIGN BOND, SOVEREIGN DEBT, STATE BANK, STATUTORY FUNDS, STOCK MARKET, STOCK MARKET INDICES, STOCKS, STRONG DEMAND, STRUCTURAL PROBLEMS, STRUCTURAL REFORMS, SUPPLY SHOCKS, SURPLUS, TAX, TERMS OF CREDIT, TRADE AGREEMENTS, TRADE BALANCE, TRADING, TRADING PARTNER, TRANSPARENCY, UNCERTAINTY, WITHDRAWAL,
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/498461468329442718/Taking-stock-an-update-on-Vietnams-recent-economic-developments https://hdl.handle.net/10986/27799
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