Assessing the Accuracy of Electricity Demand Forecasts in Developing Countries
This study assesses the accuracy of time-series econometric methods in forecasting electricity demand in developing countries. The analysis of historical time series for 106 developing countries over 1960-2012 demonstrates that econometric forecasts are highly accurate for the majority of these countries. These forecasts significantly outperform predictions of simple heuristic models, which assume that electricity demand grows at an exogenous rate or is proportional to real gross domestic product growth. The quality of the forecasts, however, diminishes for the countries and regions, where rapid economic and structural transformation or exposure to conflicts and environmental disasters makes it difficult to establish stable historical demand trends.
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| Format: | Working Paper biblioteca |
| Language: | English en_US |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2017-02
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| Subjects: | electricity, energy consumption, econometric models, forecasting, electricity demand, |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/728681487169710866/Assessing-the-accuracy-of-electricity-demand-forecasts-in-developing-countries https://hdl.handle.net/10986/26141 |
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| Summary: | This study assesses the accuracy of
time-series econometric methods in forecasting electricity
demand in developing countries. The analysis of historical
time series for 106 developing countries over 1960-2012
demonstrates that econometric forecasts are highly accurate
for the majority of these countries. These forecasts
significantly outperform predictions of simple heuristic
models, which assume that electricity demand grows at an
exogenous rate or is proportional to real gross domestic
product growth. The quality of the forecasts, however,
diminishes for the countries and regions, where rapid
economic and structural transformation or exposure to
conflicts and environmental disasters makes it difficult to
establish stable historical demand trends. |
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