Long-Term Energy Demand Forecasting in Romania

This study develops an end-use energy demand analysis model for Romania to project energy demand by sector and end-use for 2015-50. The study finds that Romania's energy demand in 2050 would be 34 percent higher than the level in 2013. The industry sector would be the largest final energy-consuming sector, surpassing the residential sector from 2025 onward. The services sector would exhibit the fastest growth of energy consumption in line with the expected structural change from manufacturing to services. Although population in the country is projected to drop by 7 percent in 2050 from the 2013 level, electricity demand would increase by 46 percent over the same period, because of increased household income and the expanded service sector, which is relatively electricity intensive. Still, per capita electricity consumption in Romania will be about half the European Union 28 average. At the end-use level, thermal processes in the industry sector, space heating in the residential and services sectors, and road transportation in the transport sector would be dominant throughout the study period. The study also shows that improvement of energy efficiency in the heating system would be the main channel to cut energy demand in the country.

Bibliographic Details

Main Authors:	Malla, Sunil, Timilsina, Govinda R.
Format:	Working Paper biblioteca
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2016-06
Subjects:	ELECTRIC SERVICES, LOW CARBON ECONOMY, TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, TRANSPORT SECTOR, REDUCING ENERGY CONSUMPTION, FLOOR SPACE, PASSENGERS, DISTRICT HEATING, DISTRICT HEATING SYSTEMS, HEATING SYSTEMS, PUBLIC ROAD, VEHICLES, ACTIVITIES, GENERATION, RAIL PASSENGER, QUANTITY OF ELECTRICITY, GROWTH IN DEMAND FOR ELECTRICITY, FREIGHT TRANSPORT, TRANSPORT MODE, WOOD PRODUCTS, TREND, EMISSIONS, ELASTICITY, FREIGHT TRAVEL, PETROLEUM COKE, SPACE COOLING, RAIL TRANSPORTATION, PRIVATE VEHICLE OWNERSHIP, INLAND WATERWAYS, PASSENGER VEHICLE, VEHICLE OWNERSHIP, GAS, TRAFFIC, EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT, PRICE, CLEANER, WEALTH, AIR, GREENHOUSE GAS, ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION, DRIVERS, TRANSPORT MODES, BIOMASS, VEHICLE, FREIGHT MOVEMENT, REFINERY GAS, ENERGY POLICIES, PETROLEUM, ROAD, HEATING ENERGY, RAIL TRANSPORT, AIR POLLUTION, OIL, TRANSPORT, POPULATION GROWTH, ENERGY REQUIREMENTS, TRANSPORT ACTIVITIES, RESIDENTIAL ENERGY, MOBILITY, AIR CONDITIONING, OIL PRODUCTS, WATER, ELECTRIC VEHICLES, TRAVEL DEMAND, WATER HEATING, CARBON ECONOMY, FLOOR AREA, POLLUTION, STEAM GENERATION, PRICE ELASTICITY, TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT, THERMAL ENERGY, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, FUELS, ELASTICITY VALUES, TRAVEL PATTERNS, HEATING SYSTEM, INFRASTRUCTURE, AIR FREIGHT, BUSES, PETROCHEMICAL INDUSTRIES, PASSENGER VEHICLES, ENERGY CONSUMPTION, ELECTRIC ENERGY, DRIVING, TRAVEL, TRANSPORTATION, TRANSIT, HEAT, CLIMATE CHANGE, FUEL TYPES, POLICIES, DEMAND FOR ELECTRICITY, ELECTRIC POWER, BALANCE, DISTRICT HEAT, PRICE ELASTICITIES, ELECTRICITY DEMAND, MODE OF TRANSPORTATION, CARS, ENERGY NEEDS, DEMAND FOR ENERGY, LAND TRANSPORT, POWER, ELECTRICITY, POLLUTION IMPACT, ELASTICITIES, MASS TRANSIT, MOTOR VEHICLES, SOLID BIOMASS, PASSENGER TRAVEL, MASS TRANSIT SYSTEM, ENERGY USE, RAILWAY, BIOMASS FUELS, TRANSPORTATION INDUSTRY, ENERGY EFFICIENCY, ENERGY OUTLOOK, ENERGY DEMAND, MARITIME TRANSPORT, RAILWAYS, NATURAL GAS, AIR TRANSPORT, VEHICLE FUEL, RAIL INLAND WATERWAYS, ENERGY BALANCE, COAL, RAIL, FUEL, DEMAND FORECAST, AVAILABILITY, FACILITIES, TRANSPORT DEMAND, PRIVATE VEHICLE, TRANSIT SYSTEMS, RENEWABLE ENERGY, SPACE HEATING, AIR PASSENGER, ROAD TRANSPORT, PASSENGER TRANSPORT, PIPELINE, FREIGHT, PRICES, APPROACH, TRANSIT SYSTEM, ROAD TRAFFIC, ENERGY, PASSENGER VOLUMES,
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/06/26442453/long-term-energy-demand-forecasting-romania-end-use-demand https://hdl.handle.net/10986/24535
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