Going Beyond the First Child : Analysis of Russian Mothers' Desired and Actual Fertility Patterns
The Russian Federation's population has been declining since 1992, but recently the decline appears to be over. Although fertility has risen since the 2007 introduction of the family policy package, which focused on stimulating second and higher-order births, total fertility rates still remain significantly below replacement rate. Unlike some Western European countries, low overall fertility in Russia can be explained predominantly by a high prevalence of one-child families, despite the two-child ideal family size reported by the majority of Russians. This paper examines the correlates of Russian first-time mothers' desire and decision to have a second child. Using the 2004–12 waves of the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey, the study focuses on the motherhood-career trade-off as a potential obstacle to higher fertility in Russia. The preliminary results indicate that among Russian first-time mothers, being in stable employment is positively associated with the likelihood of having a second child. Moreover, the desire to have a second child is positively associated with the first child attending formal childcare, which suggests that the availability, affordability, and quality of such childcare can be important for promoting fertility. These results are broadly consistent with previous studies in other European countries that indicate that the ability of mothers to combine work and family has important implications for fertility, and that pro-natalist policies focusing on childcare accessibility can offer the greatest payoffs. In addition to these factors, better housing conditions, being married, having an older child, and having a first-born boy are also positively associated with having a second child.
Summary: | The Russian Federation's population
has been declining since 1992, but recently the decline
appears to be over. Although fertility has risen since the
2007 introduction of the family policy package, which
focused on stimulating second and higher-order births, total
fertility rates still remain significantly below replacement
rate. Unlike some Western European countries, low overall
fertility in Russia can be explained predominantly by a high
prevalence of one-child families, despite the two-child
ideal family size reported by the majority of Russians. This
paper examines the correlates of Russian first-time
mothers' desire and decision to have a second child.
Using the 2004–12 waves of the Russia Longitudinal
Monitoring Survey, the study focuses on the
motherhood-career trade-off as a potential obstacle to
higher fertility in Russia. The preliminary results indicate
that among Russian first-time mothers, being in stable
employment is positively associated with the likelihood of
having a second child. Moreover, the desire to have a second
child is positively associated with the first child
attending formal childcare, which suggests that the
availability, affordability, and quality of such childcare
can be important for promoting fertility. These results are
broadly consistent with previous studies in other European
countries that indicate that the ability of mothers to
combine work and family has important implications for
fertility, and that pro-natalist policies focusing on
childcare accessibility can offer the greatest payoffs. In
addition to these factors, better housing conditions, being
married, having an older child, and having a first-born boy
are also positively associated with having a second child. |
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