Who Remained in Poverty, Who Moved Up, and Who Fell Down? An Investigation of Poverty Dynamics in Senegal in the Late 2000s

Poverty estimates based on cross-section data provide static snapshots of poverty rates. Although a time series of cross-section data can offer some insights into poverty trends, it does not allow for an assessment of dynamics at the household level. Such a dynamic perspective on poverty generally calls for panel data and this kind of analysis can usefully inform poverty reduction policy, notably the design of social protection interventions. Absent actual panel data for Senegal, this paper applies new statistical methods to construct synthetic panel data from two rounds of cross-section household surveys in 2005 and 2011. These data are used to study poverty transitions. The results suggest that, in marked contrast to the picture obtained from cross-section data, there exists a great deal of mobility in and out of poverty during this period. More than half the population experiences changes in its poverty status and more than two-thirds of the extreme (food) poor move up one or two welfare categories. Factors such as rural residence, disability, exposure to some kind of natural disaster, and informality in the labor market are associated with a heightened risk of falling into poverty. Belonging to certain ethnicities and factors such as migration, working in the non-agriculture sector, and having access to social capital are associated with a lower risk of falling into poverty.

Bibliographic Details

Main Authors:	Lanjouw, Peter F., Dang, Hai-Anh H., Swinkels, Rob
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank Group, Washington, DC 2014-12
Subjects:	ABSOLUTE TERMS, ANNUAL GROWTH, ANNUAL GROWTH RATE, CASH TRANSFERS, CHANGES IN POVERTY, CHRONIC POVERTY, CHRONICALLY POOR, CHRONICALLY POOR FAMILIES, CONSUMPTION GROWTH, CORRELATES OF POVERTY, COUNTRY CASE, CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION, CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION, DATA SETS, DENSITY FUNCTION, DEPENDENT VARIABLE, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPING COUNTRY, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH, DIVERSIFICATION, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMICS LETTERS, EDUCATION LEVEL, EMPIRICAL APPLICATION, EMPLOYMENT STATUS, ERROR TERMS, ESTIMATION RESULTS, EXTREME POOR HOUSEHOLDS, EXTREME POVERTY, FEMALE-HEADED HOUSEHOLDS, FOOD POVERTY, FOOD POVERTY LINE, FORM OF POVERTY, GEOGRAPHICAL REGIONS, GLOBAL POVERTY, GROWTH RATE, HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION, HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION, HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA, HOUSEHOLD DEMOGRAPHICS, HOUSEHOLD HEAD, HOUSEHOLD HEADS, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, HOUSEHOLD SURVEY, HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS, HOUSEHOLD WELFARE, HUMAN CAPITAL, INCOME, INCOME DYNAMICS, INCOME INEQUALITY, INCOME LEVELS, INEQUALITY, INSURANCE, LABOR MARKET, MEASURING POVERTY, NATURAL DISASTER, NATURAL DISASTERS, NON-POOR GROUP, NON-POOR HOUSEHOLDS, PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION, PER CAPITA GROWTH, POLICY MAKERS, POLICY RESEARCH, POLITICAL ECONOMY, POOR, POOR HOUSEHOLDS, POOR POPULATION, POPULATION GROUP, POVERTY ASSESSMENT, POVERTY DECLINE, POVERTY DYNAMICS, POVERTY ESTIMATES, POVERTY GROUPS, POVERTY LINES, POVERTY RATE, POVERTY RATES, POVERTY REDUCTION, POVERTY REDUCTION POLICIES, POVERTY STATUS, POVERTY TRAPS, PRIMARY EDUCATION, PRO-POOR, PRO-POOR GROWTH, REGIONAL DUMMY, RURAL, RURAL AREAS, RURAL COUNTERPARTS, RURAL FEMALE, RURAL HOUSEHOLDS, RURAL POOR, RURAL RESIDENCE, RURAL ROADS, SAFETY NET, SAFETY NET PROGRAMS, SCHOOL ATTENDANCE, SCHOOLING, SOCIAL CAPITAL, SOCIAL PROTECTION, TARGETING, UNDERSTANDING OF POVERTY, URBAN AREAS, URBAN POOR, VULNERABLE HOUSEHOLDS,
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/12/23055398/remained-poverty-moved-up-fell-down-investigation-poverty-dynamics-senegal-late-2000s https://hdl.handle.net/10986/21132
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