Economic Effects of the Syrian War and the Spread of the Islamic State on the Levant

This paper uses a global computable general-equilibrium framework with new detail on six Levant countries -- the Arab Republic of Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, the Syrian Arab Republic, and Turkey -- to quantify the direct and indirect economic effects of the Syrian war and the advance of the Islamic State on the Levant. Syria and Iraq bear the brunt of the direct economic costs, while the other Levant countries lose in per capita but not in aggregate terms. The fact that the Islamic State's spread has undermined regional trade adds to varying degrees to the direct costs in all Levant economies and in the case of Syria and Iraq doubles the welfare losses. All these countries are foregoing opportunities to expand intra-Levant trade and the associated gains in economic efficiency and diversification. The average welfare effects are not indicative of within-country incidence, which varies among workers, landowners, and capitalists.

Bibliographic Details

Main Authors:	Ivanic, Maros, Ianchovichina, Elena
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2014-12
Subjects:	AGENTS, AGGREGATE CONSUMPTION, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS, AGRICULTURAL TRADE, AGRICULTURE, APPAREL, APPLICATIONS, BARRIERS TO TRADE, BENCHMARK, BENEFITS OF TRADE, BILATERAL TARIFF, BILATERAL TRADE, BILATERAL TRADE AGREEMENTS, BORDER INFRASTRUCTURE, BUSINESS SERVICES, CAPITAL GOODS, CAPITAL OWNERS, COMMERCIAL SERVICES, COMPETITIVENESS, COUNTRY TARIFF, COVERAGE, CUMULATIVE EFFECTS, CUSTOMS, CUSTOMS UNION, DEEP TRADE INTEGRATION, DEEPER TRADE INTEGRATION, DEMAND FOR GOODS, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, DIRECT INVESTMENT, DISASTERS, DOMESTIC FIRMS, DOMESTIC MARKET, ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY, ECONOMIC INTEGRATION, ECONOMIC POLICY, ECONOMIC SYSTEMS, ELASTICITY, EMBARGO, EQUILIBRIUM, EX POST ASSESSMENT, EXPORT MARKETS, EXPORT SHARES, EXPORTERS, EXPORTS, FINANCIAL SERVICES, FOREIGN COMPETITION, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, FOREIGN INVESTMENT, FOREIGN OWNERSHIP, FREE TRADE, FREE TRADE AREA, GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS, GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL, GLOBAL COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM, GLOBAL TRADE, GLOBAL TRADE ANALYSIS, HOTELS, IMPORT DATA, IMPORT VALUES, IMPORTING COUNTRY, IMPORTS, IMPROVED MARKET ACCESS, INSURANCE, INTERMEDIATE INPUTS, INTERNATIONAL LABOR MOBILITY, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, INVESTIGATIONS, INVESTMENT FLOWS, METAL PRODUCTS, MFN, MONOPOLIES, MULTILATERAL TRADE, MULTILATERAL TRADE REFORM, NATURAL RESOURCES, NEWLY INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES, OIL PRICE, OIL PRICES, OPPORTUNITY COSTS, OWNERSHIP STRUCTURE, PER CAPITA INCOME, PRODUCT DIFFERENTIATION, PRODUCTION COSTS, PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH, PROTECTION DATA, PROTECTION RATES, PUBLIC MONOPOLIES, PUBLIC SERVICES, REAL GDP, RECIPROCITY, REGIONAL INTEGRATION, REGIONAL TRADE, REGIONAL TRADE AGREEMENTS, REGIONAL TRADE INTEGRATION, RETAIL TRADE, SAVINGS, SERVICE SECTORS, SERVICES LIBERALIZATION, SERVICES SECTORS, SERVICES TRADE, SKILLED LABOR, TARIFF DATA, TARIFF EQUIVALENTS, TARIFF LINES, TARIFF PROTECTION, TARIFF RATE, TARIFF RATES, TARIFF REVENUE, TAX REVENUE, TELECOMMUNICATIONS, TOTAL COSTS, TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY, TOURISM, TRADE AGREEMENT, TRADE AGREEMENTS, TRADE BALANCES, TRADE CONCESSIONS, TRADE COSTS, TRADE DATA, TRADE FLOWS, TRADE IN SERVICES, TRADE LIBERALIZATION, TRADE LOSSES, TRADE POLICY, TRADE PREFERENCES, TRADE REFORM, TRADE REFORMS, TRADE RESTRICTIONS, TRADE VALUE, TRADE VOLUMES, TRANSPORT COSTS, TRANSPORT SERVICES, UNSKILLED LABOR, UNSKILLED WORKERS, URUGUAY ROUND, VALUE ADDED, WAGE RATES, WAGES, WELFARE LOSS, WELFARE LOSSES, WORLD TRADE, WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION, WTO,
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2004/12/22316371/economic-effects-syrian-war-spread-islamic-state-levant https://hdl.handle.net/10986/20696
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