Relative Returns to Policy Reform : Evidence from Controlled Cross-Country Regressions
The authors aim at contributing to understand the dispersion of returns from policy reforms using cross-country regressions. The authors compare the "before reform" with "after reform" GDP growth outcome of countries that undertook import-liberalization and fiscal policy reforms. They survey a large sample (about 54) of developing countries over the period 1980-99. The benefits of openness to trade and fiscal prudence have been extensively identified in the growth literature, but the evidence from simple cross-section analysis can sometimes be inconclusive and remains vulnerable to criticism on estimation techniques, such as identification, endogeneity, multi-colinearity, and the quality of the data. The authors use a different analytical framework that establishes additional controls. First, they construct a counterfactual control group. These are countries that-under specific thresholds-did not introduce policy reforms under scrutiny. Second, the authors also try to use the most appropriate variable of policy reform, for example, exogenous changes in import-tariffs instead of the endogenous sum of all trade flows. Third, the authors try to base the before-after reform comparison on the most accurate date for the beginning of a policy reform period (instead of comparing averages over fixed intervals of time). Once these controls are set, they explain the difference between average GDP growth rates during the country-specific post and the pre-reform periods, relative to the average GDP growth of the relevant control group. The explanatory variables in the regressions include the standard growth-regression controls. The results are the following: 1) With a better measurement and timing of the policy reforms, the growth effect (the "returns on reform") is generally smaller than in previous papers. 2) There is evidence of contingent relationships between policy and growth, corresponding to the country's size, its export profile, and its governance. 2) Within the group of policy reformers, some countries have exhibited a relatively weaker growth response. Overall, the findings suggest that more accurate measurement and definition of the timing of reforms does not strengthen the significance of the effects of reforms on GDP growth. In fact, the effects are weaker than indicated in most cross-section studies. This suggests that the policy implications to be derived from these relationships should be treated with even more caution than previously thought.
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dig-okr-1098619222 |
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Banco Mundial |
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Estados Unidos |
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Bibliográfico |
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America del Norte |
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Biblioteca del Banco Mundial |
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English |
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AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS AGRICULTURE ANDEAN PACT ANTIDUMPING AVERAGE GROWTH AVERAGE GROWTH RATE AVERAGE TARIFF AVERAGE TARIFF RATE AVERAGE TARIFF RATES AVERAGE TARIFFS AVERAGE TRADE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS BALANCE OF PAYMENTS CRISIS BARRIERS TO IMPORTS BLACK MARKET BLACK MARKET PREMIUM CAPITAL ACCOUNT CAPITAL ACCUMULATION CAPITAL STOCK CD COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE COMPLEX TASK CONCESSIONS CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES COUNTRY CHARACTERISTICS COUNTRY REGRESSIONS COUNTRY SIZE CROSS- COUNTRY ANALYSIS CROSS- COUNTRY VARIATION CROSS-COUNTRY ANALYSIS CROSS-COUNTRY REGRESSIONS CURRENCY CUSTOMS CUSTOMS UNION DATA AVAILABILITY DEBT DEVELOPED COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC POLICY EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE EQUATIONS ESTIMATED COEFFICIENTS ESTIMATION METHOD ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES EXCHANGE RATE EXOGENOUS SHOCK EXOGENOUS SHOCKS EXPENDITURES EXPLANATORY VARIABLES EXPORT SHARES EXPORTERS EXPORTS EXTERNAL DEBT EXTERNAL SHOCKS FACTORS OF PRODUCTION FINANCIAL LIBERALIZATION GDP GDP PER CAPITA GLOBAL TRADE GROWTH EFFECT GROWTH LITERATURE GROWTH PERFORMANCE GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES GROWTH REGRESSIONS HIGH INCOME COUNTRIES HIGH TARIFFS HUMAN CAPITAL IDIOSYNCRATIC SHOCKS IMPORT DUTIES IMPORT LIBERALIZATION IMPORT TARIFFS INCOME INCREASE GROWTH INCREASING MARKET ACCESS INFLATION INVESTMENT RATE INVESTMENT RATES LAGGED GROWTH LONG- RUN GROWTH MACRO POLICY MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS MACROECONOMIC POLICY MARGINAL COST MARGINAL EFFECT MARGINAL EFFECTS MARKET ACCESS NEGATIVE EFFECT NEGATIVE IMPACT NON-TARIFF BARRIERS OPEN ECONOMIES OPENNESS OPENNESS TO IMPORTS POLICY ANALYSIS POLICY IMPLICATIONS POLICY INSTRUMENTS POLICY REFORM POLICY REFORMS POLICY RESEARCH POLICY VARIABLES PRIMARY EDUCATION PRIMARY PRODUCTS PRODUCTION FUNCTION PRODUCTIVITY PUBLIC INVESTMENT PUBLIC POLICIES QUOTAS REAL INTEREST RATES REDUCED FORM EQUATION REGIONAL TRADE REGIONAL TRADE BLOCS REGIONAL TRADE SHARES REGULATORY FRAMEWORK SAVINGS SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION STANDARD DEVIATION STANDARD GROWTH DETERMINANTS TARIFF BARRIERS TARIFF RATE TARIFF RATES TARIFF REDUCTION TAX REVENUES TAX SYSTEM TERMS OF TRADE TERMS OF TRADE SHOCKS TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY TRADE BARRIERS TRADE BLOC TRADE BLOCS TRADE CONTROL MEASURES TRADE DIVERSION TRADE DIVERSION EFFECT TRADE FLOW TRADE FLOWS TRADE INTENSITY TRADE LIBERALIZATION TRADE OPENNESS TRADE POLICIES TRADE POLICY TRADE POLICY REVIEW TRADE POLICY VARIABLES TRADE REFORM TRADE REGIME TRADE RESTRICTIONS TRADE SHARE TRADE TAXES UNDERESTIMATES URUGUAY ROUND WORLD TRADE WTO POLICY REFORM CROSS-COUNTRY EXPERIENCE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROWTH PATTERNS IMPORT LIBERALIZATION FISCAL POLICY PRUDENTIAL REGULATIONS VARIABILITY IMPORT TARIFFS TRADE FINANCE REGRESSIVE TAXES GOVERNANCE CAPACITY AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS AGRICULTURE ANDEAN PACT ANTIDUMPING AVERAGE GROWTH AVERAGE GROWTH RATE AVERAGE TARIFF AVERAGE TARIFF RATE AVERAGE TARIFF RATES AVERAGE TARIFFS AVERAGE TRADE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS BALANCE OF PAYMENTS CRISIS BARRIERS TO IMPORTS BLACK MARKET BLACK MARKET PREMIUM CAPITAL ACCOUNT CAPITAL ACCUMULATION CAPITAL STOCK CD COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE COMPLEX TASK CONCESSIONS CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES COUNTRY CHARACTERISTICS COUNTRY REGRESSIONS COUNTRY SIZE CROSS- COUNTRY ANALYSIS CROSS- COUNTRY VARIATION CROSS-COUNTRY ANALYSIS CROSS-COUNTRY REGRESSIONS CURRENCY CUSTOMS CUSTOMS UNION DATA AVAILABILITY DEBT DEVELOPED COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC POLICY EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE EQUATIONS ESTIMATED COEFFICIENTS ESTIMATION METHOD ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES EXCHANGE RATE EXOGENOUS SHOCK EXOGENOUS SHOCKS EXPENDITURES EXPLANATORY VARIABLES EXPORT SHARES EXPORTERS EXPORTS EXTERNAL DEBT EXTERNAL SHOCKS FACTORS OF PRODUCTION FINANCIAL LIBERALIZATION GDP GDP PER CAPITA GLOBAL TRADE GROWTH EFFECT GROWTH LITERATURE GROWTH PERFORMANCE GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES GROWTH REGRESSIONS HIGH INCOME COUNTRIES HIGH TARIFFS HUMAN CAPITAL IDIOSYNCRATIC SHOCKS IMPORT DUTIES IMPORT LIBERALIZATION IMPORT TARIFFS INCOME INCREASE GROWTH INCREASING MARKET ACCESS INFLATION INVESTMENT RATE INVESTMENT RATES LAGGED GROWTH LONG- RUN GROWTH MACRO POLICY MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS MACROECONOMIC POLICY MARGINAL COST MARGINAL EFFECT MARGINAL EFFECTS MARKET ACCESS NEGATIVE EFFECT NEGATIVE IMPACT NON-TARIFF BARRIERS OPEN ECONOMIES OPENNESS OPENNESS TO IMPORTS POLICY ANALYSIS POLICY IMPLICATIONS POLICY INSTRUMENTS POLICY REFORM POLICY REFORMS POLICY RESEARCH POLICY VARIABLES PRIMARY EDUCATION PRIMARY PRODUCTS PRODUCTION FUNCTION PRODUCTIVITY PUBLIC INVESTMENT PUBLIC POLICIES QUOTAS REAL INTEREST RATES REDUCED FORM EQUATION REGIONAL TRADE REGIONAL TRADE BLOCS REGIONAL TRADE SHARES REGULATORY FRAMEWORK SAVINGS SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION STANDARD DEVIATION STANDARD GROWTH DETERMINANTS TARIFF BARRIERS TARIFF RATE TARIFF RATES TARIFF REDUCTION TAX REVENUES TAX SYSTEM TERMS OF TRADE TERMS OF TRADE SHOCKS TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY TRADE BARRIERS TRADE BLOC TRADE BLOCS TRADE CONTROL MEASURES TRADE DIVERSION TRADE DIVERSION EFFECT TRADE FLOW TRADE FLOWS TRADE INTENSITY TRADE LIBERALIZATION TRADE OPENNESS TRADE POLICIES TRADE POLICY TRADE POLICY REVIEW TRADE POLICY VARIABLES TRADE REFORM TRADE REGIME TRADE RESTRICTIONS TRADE SHARE TRADE TAXES UNDERESTIMATES URUGUAY ROUND WORLD TRADE WTO POLICY REFORM CROSS-COUNTRY EXPERIENCE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROWTH PATTERNS IMPORT LIBERALIZATION FISCAL POLICY PRUDENTIAL REGULATIONS VARIABILITY IMPORT TARIFFS TRADE FINANCE REGRESSIVE TAXES GOVERNANCE CAPACITY |
spellingShingle |
AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS AGRICULTURE ANDEAN PACT ANTIDUMPING AVERAGE GROWTH AVERAGE GROWTH RATE AVERAGE TARIFF AVERAGE TARIFF RATE AVERAGE TARIFF RATES AVERAGE TARIFFS AVERAGE TRADE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS BALANCE OF PAYMENTS CRISIS BARRIERS TO IMPORTS BLACK MARKET BLACK MARKET PREMIUM CAPITAL ACCOUNT CAPITAL ACCUMULATION CAPITAL STOCK CD COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE COMPLEX TASK CONCESSIONS CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES COUNTRY CHARACTERISTICS COUNTRY REGRESSIONS COUNTRY SIZE CROSS- COUNTRY ANALYSIS CROSS- COUNTRY VARIATION CROSS-COUNTRY ANALYSIS CROSS-COUNTRY REGRESSIONS CURRENCY CUSTOMS CUSTOMS UNION DATA AVAILABILITY DEBT DEVELOPED COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC POLICY EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE EQUATIONS ESTIMATED COEFFICIENTS ESTIMATION METHOD ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES EXCHANGE RATE EXOGENOUS SHOCK EXOGENOUS SHOCKS EXPENDITURES EXPLANATORY VARIABLES EXPORT SHARES EXPORTERS EXPORTS EXTERNAL DEBT EXTERNAL SHOCKS FACTORS OF PRODUCTION FINANCIAL LIBERALIZATION GDP GDP PER CAPITA GLOBAL TRADE GROWTH EFFECT GROWTH LITERATURE GROWTH PERFORMANCE GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES GROWTH REGRESSIONS HIGH INCOME COUNTRIES HIGH TARIFFS HUMAN CAPITAL IDIOSYNCRATIC SHOCKS IMPORT DUTIES IMPORT LIBERALIZATION IMPORT TARIFFS INCOME INCREASE GROWTH INCREASING MARKET ACCESS INFLATION INVESTMENT RATE INVESTMENT RATES LAGGED GROWTH LONG- RUN GROWTH MACRO POLICY MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS MACROECONOMIC POLICY MARGINAL COST MARGINAL EFFECT MARGINAL EFFECTS MARKET ACCESS NEGATIVE EFFECT NEGATIVE IMPACT NON-TARIFF BARRIERS OPEN ECONOMIES OPENNESS OPENNESS TO IMPORTS POLICY ANALYSIS POLICY IMPLICATIONS POLICY INSTRUMENTS POLICY REFORM POLICY REFORMS POLICY RESEARCH POLICY VARIABLES PRIMARY EDUCATION PRIMARY PRODUCTS PRODUCTION FUNCTION PRODUCTIVITY PUBLIC INVESTMENT PUBLIC POLICIES QUOTAS REAL INTEREST RATES REDUCED FORM EQUATION REGIONAL TRADE REGIONAL TRADE BLOCS REGIONAL TRADE SHARES REGULATORY FRAMEWORK SAVINGS SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION STANDARD DEVIATION STANDARD GROWTH DETERMINANTS TARIFF BARRIERS TARIFF RATE TARIFF RATES TARIFF REDUCTION TAX REVENUES TAX SYSTEM TERMS OF TRADE TERMS OF TRADE SHOCKS TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY TRADE BARRIERS TRADE BLOC TRADE BLOCS TRADE CONTROL MEASURES TRADE DIVERSION TRADE DIVERSION EFFECT TRADE FLOW TRADE FLOWS TRADE INTENSITY TRADE LIBERALIZATION TRADE OPENNESS TRADE POLICIES TRADE POLICY TRADE POLICY REVIEW TRADE POLICY VARIABLES TRADE REFORM TRADE REGIME TRADE RESTRICTIONS TRADE SHARE TRADE TAXES UNDERESTIMATES URUGUAY ROUND WORLD TRADE WTO POLICY REFORM CROSS-COUNTRY EXPERIENCE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROWTH PATTERNS IMPORT LIBERALIZATION FISCAL POLICY PRUDENTIAL REGULATIONS VARIABILITY IMPORT TARIFFS TRADE FINANCE REGRESSIVE TAXES GOVERNANCE CAPACITY AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS AGRICULTURE ANDEAN PACT ANTIDUMPING AVERAGE GROWTH AVERAGE GROWTH RATE AVERAGE TARIFF AVERAGE TARIFF RATE AVERAGE TARIFF RATES AVERAGE TARIFFS AVERAGE TRADE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS BALANCE OF PAYMENTS CRISIS BARRIERS TO IMPORTS BLACK MARKET BLACK MARKET PREMIUM CAPITAL ACCOUNT CAPITAL ACCUMULATION CAPITAL STOCK CD COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE COMPLEX TASK CONCESSIONS CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES COUNTRY CHARACTERISTICS COUNTRY REGRESSIONS COUNTRY SIZE CROSS- COUNTRY ANALYSIS CROSS- COUNTRY VARIATION CROSS-COUNTRY ANALYSIS CROSS-COUNTRY REGRESSIONS CURRENCY CUSTOMS CUSTOMS UNION DATA AVAILABILITY DEBT DEVELOPED COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC POLICY EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE EQUATIONS ESTIMATED COEFFICIENTS ESTIMATION METHOD ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES EXCHANGE RATE EXOGENOUS SHOCK EXOGENOUS SHOCKS EXPENDITURES EXPLANATORY VARIABLES EXPORT SHARES EXPORTERS EXPORTS EXTERNAL DEBT EXTERNAL SHOCKS FACTORS OF PRODUCTION FINANCIAL LIBERALIZATION GDP GDP PER CAPITA GLOBAL TRADE GROWTH EFFECT GROWTH LITERATURE GROWTH PERFORMANCE GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES GROWTH REGRESSIONS HIGH INCOME COUNTRIES HIGH TARIFFS HUMAN CAPITAL IDIOSYNCRATIC SHOCKS IMPORT DUTIES IMPORT LIBERALIZATION IMPORT TARIFFS INCOME INCREASE GROWTH INCREASING MARKET ACCESS INFLATION INVESTMENT RATE INVESTMENT RATES LAGGED GROWTH LONG- RUN GROWTH MACRO POLICY MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS MACROECONOMIC POLICY MARGINAL COST MARGINAL EFFECT MARGINAL EFFECTS MARKET ACCESS NEGATIVE EFFECT NEGATIVE IMPACT NON-TARIFF BARRIERS OPEN ECONOMIES OPENNESS OPENNESS TO IMPORTS POLICY ANALYSIS POLICY IMPLICATIONS POLICY INSTRUMENTS POLICY REFORM POLICY REFORMS POLICY RESEARCH POLICY VARIABLES PRIMARY EDUCATION PRIMARY PRODUCTS PRODUCTION FUNCTION PRODUCTIVITY PUBLIC INVESTMENT PUBLIC POLICIES QUOTAS REAL INTEREST RATES REDUCED FORM EQUATION REGIONAL TRADE REGIONAL TRADE BLOCS REGIONAL TRADE SHARES REGULATORY FRAMEWORK SAVINGS SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION STANDARD DEVIATION STANDARD GROWTH DETERMINANTS TARIFF BARRIERS TARIFF RATE TARIFF RATES TARIFF REDUCTION TAX REVENUES TAX SYSTEM TERMS OF TRADE TERMS OF TRADE SHOCKS TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY TRADE BARRIERS TRADE BLOC TRADE BLOCS TRADE CONTROL MEASURES TRADE DIVERSION TRADE DIVERSION EFFECT TRADE FLOW TRADE FLOWS TRADE INTENSITY TRADE LIBERALIZATION TRADE OPENNESS TRADE POLICIES TRADE POLICY TRADE POLICY REVIEW TRADE POLICY VARIABLES TRADE REFORM TRADE REGIME TRADE RESTRICTIONS TRADE SHARE TRADE TAXES UNDERESTIMATES URUGUAY ROUND WORLD TRADE WTO POLICY REFORM CROSS-COUNTRY EXPERIENCE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROWTH PATTERNS IMPORT LIBERALIZATION FISCAL POLICY PRUDENTIAL REGULATIONS VARIABILITY IMPORT TARIFFS TRADE FINANCE REGRESSIVE TAXES GOVERNANCE CAPACITY de Castro, Alexandre Samy Goldin, Ian Pereira da Silva, Luiz A. Relative Returns to Policy Reform : Evidence from Controlled Cross-Country Regressions |
description |
The authors aim at contributing to
understand the dispersion of returns from policy reforms
using cross-country regressions. The authors compare the
"before reform" with "after reform" GDP
growth outcome of countries that undertook
import-liberalization and fiscal policy reforms. They survey
a large sample (about 54) of developing countries over the
period 1980-99. The benefits of openness to trade and fiscal
prudence have been extensively identified in the growth
literature, but the evidence from simple cross-section
analysis can sometimes be inconclusive and remains
vulnerable to criticism on estimation techniques, such as
identification, endogeneity, multi-colinearity, and the
quality of the data. The authors use a different analytical
framework that establishes additional controls. First, they
construct a counterfactual control group. These are
countries that-under specific thresholds-did not introduce
policy reforms under scrutiny. Second, the authors also try
to use the most appropriate variable of policy reform, for
example, exogenous changes in import-tariffs instead of the
endogenous sum of all trade flows. Third, the authors try to
base the before-after reform comparison on the most accurate
date for the beginning of a policy reform period (instead of
comparing averages over fixed intervals of time). Once these
controls are set, they explain the difference between
average GDP growth rates during the country-specific post
and the pre-reform periods, relative to the average GDP
growth of the relevant control group. The explanatory
variables in the regressions include the standard
growth-regression controls. The results are the following:
1) With a better measurement and timing of the policy
reforms, the growth effect (the "returns on
reform") is generally smaller than in previous papers.
2) There is evidence of contingent relationships between
policy and growth, corresponding to the country's size,
its export profile, and its governance. 2) Within the group
of policy reformers, some countries have exhibited a
relatively weaker growth response. Overall, the findings
suggest that more accurate measurement and definition of the
timing of reforms does not strengthen the significance of
the effects of reforms on GDP growth. In fact, the effects
are weaker than indicated in most cross-section studies.
This suggests that the policy implications to be derived
from these relationships should be treated with even more
caution than previously thought. |
topic_facet |
AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS AGRICULTURE ANDEAN PACT ANTIDUMPING AVERAGE GROWTH AVERAGE GROWTH RATE AVERAGE TARIFF AVERAGE TARIFF RATE AVERAGE TARIFF RATES AVERAGE TARIFFS AVERAGE TRADE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS BALANCE OF PAYMENTS CRISIS BARRIERS TO IMPORTS BLACK MARKET BLACK MARKET PREMIUM CAPITAL ACCOUNT CAPITAL ACCUMULATION CAPITAL STOCK CD COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE COMPLEX TASK CONCESSIONS CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES COUNTRY CHARACTERISTICS COUNTRY REGRESSIONS COUNTRY SIZE CROSS- COUNTRY ANALYSIS CROSS- COUNTRY VARIATION CROSS-COUNTRY ANALYSIS CROSS-COUNTRY REGRESSIONS CURRENCY CUSTOMS CUSTOMS UNION DATA AVAILABILITY DEBT DEVELOPED COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC POLICY EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE EQUATIONS ESTIMATED COEFFICIENTS ESTIMATION METHOD ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES EXCHANGE RATE EXOGENOUS SHOCK EXOGENOUS SHOCKS EXPENDITURES EXPLANATORY VARIABLES EXPORT SHARES EXPORTERS EXPORTS EXTERNAL DEBT EXTERNAL SHOCKS FACTORS OF PRODUCTION FINANCIAL LIBERALIZATION GDP GDP PER CAPITA GLOBAL TRADE GROWTH EFFECT GROWTH LITERATURE GROWTH PERFORMANCE GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES GROWTH REGRESSIONS HIGH INCOME COUNTRIES HIGH TARIFFS HUMAN CAPITAL IDIOSYNCRATIC SHOCKS IMPORT DUTIES IMPORT LIBERALIZATION IMPORT TARIFFS INCOME INCREASE GROWTH INCREASING MARKET ACCESS INFLATION INVESTMENT RATE INVESTMENT RATES LAGGED GROWTH LONG- RUN GROWTH MACRO POLICY MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS MACROECONOMIC POLICY MARGINAL COST MARGINAL EFFECT MARGINAL EFFECTS MARKET ACCESS NEGATIVE EFFECT NEGATIVE IMPACT NON-TARIFF BARRIERS OPEN ECONOMIES OPENNESS OPENNESS TO IMPORTS POLICY ANALYSIS POLICY IMPLICATIONS POLICY INSTRUMENTS POLICY REFORM POLICY REFORMS POLICY RESEARCH POLICY VARIABLES PRIMARY EDUCATION PRIMARY PRODUCTS PRODUCTION FUNCTION PRODUCTIVITY PUBLIC INVESTMENT PUBLIC POLICIES QUOTAS REAL INTEREST RATES REDUCED FORM EQUATION REGIONAL TRADE REGIONAL TRADE BLOCS REGIONAL TRADE SHARES REGULATORY FRAMEWORK SAVINGS SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION STANDARD DEVIATION STANDARD GROWTH DETERMINANTS TARIFF BARRIERS TARIFF RATE TARIFF RATES TARIFF REDUCTION TAX REVENUES TAX SYSTEM TERMS OF TRADE TERMS OF TRADE SHOCKS TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY TRADE BARRIERS TRADE BLOC TRADE BLOCS TRADE CONTROL MEASURES TRADE DIVERSION TRADE DIVERSION EFFECT TRADE FLOW TRADE FLOWS TRADE INTENSITY TRADE LIBERALIZATION TRADE OPENNESS TRADE POLICIES TRADE POLICY TRADE POLICY REVIEW TRADE POLICY VARIABLES TRADE REFORM TRADE REGIME TRADE RESTRICTIONS TRADE SHARE TRADE TAXES UNDERESTIMATES URUGUAY ROUND WORLD TRADE WTO POLICY REFORM CROSS-COUNTRY EXPERIENCE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROWTH PATTERNS IMPORT LIBERALIZATION FISCAL POLICY PRUDENTIAL REGULATIONS VARIABILITY IMPORT TARIFFS TRADE FINANCE REGRESSIVE TAXES GOVERNANCE CAPACITY |
author |
de Castro, Alexandre Samy Goldin, Ian Pereira da Silva, Luiz A. |
author_facet |
de Castro, Alexandre Samy Goldin, Ian Pereira da Silva, Luiz A. |
author_sort |
de Castro, Alexandre Samy |
title |
Relative Returns to Policy Reform : Evidence from Controlled Cross-Country Regressions |
title_short |
Relative Returns to Policy Reform : Evidence from Controlled Cross-Country Regressions |
title_full |
Relative Returns to Policy Reform : Evidence from Controlled Cross-Country Regressions |
title_fullStr |
Relative Returns to Policy Reform : Evidence from Controlled Cross-Country Regressions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Relative Returns to Policy Reform : Evidence from Controlled Cross-Country Regressions |
title_sort |
relative returns to policy reform : evidence from controlled cross-country regressions |
publisher |
World Bank |
publishDate |
2002-10 |
url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2002/10/2032622/relative-returns-policy-reform-evidence-controlled-cross-country-regressions https://hdl.handle.net/10986/19222 |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT decastroalexandresamy relativereturnstopolicyreformevidencefromcontrolledcrosscountryregressions AT goldinian relativereturnstopolicyreformevidencefromcontrolledcrosscountryregressions AT pereiradasilvaluiza relativereturnstopolicyreformevidencefromcontrolledcrosscountryregressions |
_version_ |
1807154980390436864 |
spelling |
dig-okr-10986192222024-08-08T17:50:41Z Relative Returns to Policy Reform : Evidence from Controlled Cross-Country Regressions de Castro, Alexandre Samy Goldin, Ian Pereira da Silva, Luiz A. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS AGRICULTURE ANDEAN PACT ANTIDUMPING AVERAGE GROWTH AVERAGE GROWTH RATE AVERAGE TARIFF AVERAGE TARIFF RATE AVERAGE TARIFF RATES AVERAGE TARIFFS AVERAGE TRADE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS BALANCE OF PAYMENTS CRISIS BARRIERS TO IMPORTS BLACK MARKET BLACK MARKET PREMIUM CAPITAL ACCOUNT CAPITAL ACCUMULATION CAPITAL STOCK CD COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE COMPLEX TASK CONCESSIONS CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES COUNTRY CHARACTERISTICS COUNTRY REGRESSIONS COUNTRY SIZE CROSS- COUNTRY ANALYSIS CROSS- COUNTRY VARIATION CROSS-COUNTRY ANALYSIS CROSS-COUNTRY REGRESSIONS CURRENCY CUSTOMS CUSTOMS UNION DATA AVAILABILITY DEBT DEVELOPED COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC POLICY EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE EQUATIONS ESTIMATED COEFFICIENTS ESTIMATION METHOD ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES EXCHANGE RATE EXOGENOUS SHOCK EXOGENOUS SHOCKS EXPENDITURES EXPLANATORY VARIABLES EXPORT SHARES EXPORTERS EXPORTS EXTERNAL DEBT EXTERNAL SHOCKS FACTORS OF PRODUCTION FINANCIAL LIBERALIZATION GDP GDP PER CAPITA GLOBAL TRADE GROWTH EFFECT GROWTH LITERATURE GROWTH PERFORMANCE GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES GROWTH REGRESSIONS HIGH INCOME COUNTRIES HIGH TARIFFS HUMAN CAPITAL IDIOSYNCRATIC SHOCKS IMPORT DUTIES IMPORT LIBERALIZATION IMPORT TARIFFS INCOME INCREASE GROWTH INCREASING MARKET ACCESS INFLATION INVESTMENT RATE INVESTMENT RATES LAGGED GROWTH LONG- RUN GROWTH MACRO POLICY MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS MACROECONOMIC POLICY MARGINAL COST MARGINAL EFFECT MARGINAL EFFECTS MARKET ACCESS NEGATIVE EFFECT NEGATIVE IMPACT NON-TARIFF BARRIERS OPEN ECONOMIES OPENNESS OPENNESS TO IMPORTS POLICY ANALYSIS POLICY IMPLICATIONS POLICY INSTRUMENTS POLICY REFORM POLICY REFORMS POLICY RESEARCH POLICY VARIABLES PRIMARY EDUCATION PRIMARY PRODUCTS PRODUCTION FUNCTION PRODUCTIVITY PUBLIC INVESTMENT PUBLIC POLICIES QUOTAS REAL INTEREST RATES REDUCED FORM EQUATION REGIONAL TRADE REGIONAL TRADE BLOCS REGIONAL TRADE SHARES REGULATORY FRAMEWORK SAVINGS SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION STANDARD DEVIATION STANDARD GROWTH DETERMINANTS TARIFF BARRIERS TARIFF RATE TARIFF RATES TARIFF REDUCTION TAX REVENUES TAX SYSTEM TERMS OF TRADE TERMS OF TRADE SHOCKS TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY TRADE BARRIERS TRADE BLOC TRADE BLOCS TRADE CONTROL MEASURES TRADE DIVERSION TRADE DIVERSION EFFECT TRADE FLOW TRADE FLOWS TRADE INTENSITY TRADE LIBERALIZATION TRADE OPENNESS TRADE POLICIES TRADE POLICY TRADE POLICY REVIEW TRADE POLICY VARIABLES TRADE REFORM TRADE REGIME TRADE RESTRICTIONS TRADE SHARE TRADE TAXES UNDERESTIMATES URUGUAY ROUND WORLD TRADE WTO POLICY REFORM CROSS-COUNTRY EXPERIENCE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROWTH PATTERNS IMPORT LIBERALIZATION FISCAL POLICY PRUDENTIAL REGULATIONS VARIABILITY IMPORT TARIFFS TRADE FINANCE REGRESSIVE TAXES GOVERNANCE CAPACITY The authors aim at contributing to understand the dispersion of returns from policy reforms using cross-country regressions. The authors compare the "before reform" with "after reform" GDP growth outcome of countries that undertook import-liberalization and fiscal policy reforms. They survey a large sample (about 54) of developing countries over the period 1980-99. The benefits of openness to trade and fiscal prudence have been extensively identified in the growth literature, but the evidence from simple cross-section analysis can sometimes be inconclusive and remains vulnerable to criticism on estimation techniques, such as identification, endogeneity, multi-colinearity, and the quality of the data. The authors use a different analytical framework that establishes additional controls. First, they construct a counterfactual control group. These are countries that-under specific thresholds-did not introduce policy reforms under scrutiny. Second, the authors also try to use the most appropriate variable of policy reform, for example, exogenous changes in import-tariffs instead of the endogenous sum of all trade flows. Third, the authors try to base the before-after reform comparison on the most accurate date for the beginning of a policy reform period (instead of comparing averages over fixed intervals of time). Once these controls are set, they explain the difference between average GDP growth rates during the country-specific post and the pre-reform periods, relative to the average GDP growth of the relevant control group. The explanatory variables in the regressions include the standard growth-regression controls. The results are the following: 1) With a better measurement and timing of the policy reforms, the growth effect (the "returns on reform") is generally smaller than in previous papers. 2) There is evidence of contingent relationships between policy and growth, corresponding to the country's size, its export profile, and its governance. 2) Within the group of policy reformers, some countries have exhibited a relatively weaker growth response. Overall, the findings suggest that more accurate measurement and definition of the timing of reforms does not strengthen the significance of the effects of reforms on GDP growth. In fact, the effects are weaker than indicated in most cross-section studies. This suggests that the policy implications to be derived from these relationships should be treated with even more caution than previously thought. 2014-08-01T19:41:11Z 2014-08-01T19:41:11Z 2002-10 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2002/10/2032622/relative-returns-policy-reform-evidence-controlled-cross-country-regressions https://hdl.handle.net/10986/19222 English Policy Research Working Paper; No. 2898 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ application/pdf text/plain World Bank |