50 Years of Urbanization in Africa : Examining the Role of Climate Change

This paper documents a significant impact of climate variation on urbanization in Sub-Saharan Africa, primarily in more arid countries. By lowering farm incomes, reduced moisture availability encourages migration to nearby cities, while wetter conditions slow migration. The paper also provides evidence for rural-urban income links. In countries with a larger industrial base, reduced moisture shrinks the agricultural sector and raises total incomes in nearby cities. However, if local cities are entirely dependent on servicing agriculture so their fortunes move with those of agriculture, reduced moisture tends to reduce local urban incomes. Finally, the paper shows that climate induces employment changes within the rural sector itself. Drier conditions induce a shift out of farm activities, especially for women, into non-farm activities, and especially out of the workforce. Overall, these findings imply a strong link between climate and urbanization in Africa.

Bibliographic Details

Main Authors:	Henderson, J. Vernon, Storeygard, Adam, Deichmann, Uwe
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2014-06
Subjects:	ADVERSE CLIMATE, AIR, AIR TEMPERATURE, ALLOCATION, AMOUNT OF RAINFALL, ARID CLIMATES, AVERAGE RAINFALL, BASES, CENSUSES, CHANGES IN DEMAND, CHANNELS, CITY POPULATION, CIVIL WAR, CLIMATE, CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION, CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES, CLIMATE CHANGE DISCUSSION, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS, CLIMATE CHANGES, CLIMATE CONDITIONS, CLIMATE DATA, CLIMATE EFFECTS, CLIMATE EXTREMES, CLIMATE FACTORS, CLIMATE FLUCTUATIONS, CLIMATE IMPACT, CLIMATE IMPACT RESEARCH, CLIMATE IMPACTS, CLIMATE INDICATORS, CLIMATE MODELS, CLIMATE SCENARIOS, CLIMATE SCIENTISTS, CLIMATE TRENDS, CLIMATE UNCERTAINTY, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, CLIMATIC CHANGE, CLIMATIC CONDITIONS, CLIMATIC RESEARCH, CLIMATIC VARIABILITY, CLIMATOLOGISTS, CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY, CONVERGENCE, DEMAND FOR SERVICES, DESERTIFICATION, DESERTS, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, DIVERGENCE, DROUGHT, EARLY CHILDHOOD, ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS, ECONOMIC DATA, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC IMPACTS, ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE, ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, ECONOMIC SECTORS, EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE, ELECTRICITY, EMISSION, EMISSION SCENARIOS, ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE, ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION, ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS, ESTIMATES OF CLIMATE CHANGE, EVAPOTRANSPIRATION, EXPORT, EXTREME EVENTS, FARMERS, FARMING, FERTILITY, FERTILITY RATES, FINANCIAL SUPPORT, FLOODS, FOOD SECURITY, FOREST, FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE, GAS, GAS FLARING, GLOBAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE, GLOBAL CLIMATE, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE, GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT, GLOBAL WARMING, GREENHOUSE, GREENHOUSE GASES, HOUSEHOLD DYNAMICS, HOUSEHOLD RESPONSIBILITIES, HOUSEHOLD WORK, HUMAN CAPITAL, ICE, IMPACT OF CLIMATE, IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE, IMPACT OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY, IMPACT OF CLIMATE VARIATION, IMPACT OF RAINFALL, IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, INCOME, INDUSTRIALIZATION, INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE, INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION, JOBS, LABOR FORCE, LABOR MARKET, LABOR SUPPLY, LAND OWNERSHIP, LAND TENURE, LOCAL DISTRIBUTION, MALE LABOR FORCE, MARITAL STATUS, MIGRANTS, MIGRATION, MOISTURE, MONSOONS, NATIONAL LEVEL, NATURAL GAS, NATURAL RESOURCE, NEGATIVE IMPACTS, NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, NUMBER OF CHILDREN, OCEAN TEMPERATURES, PER CAPITA INCOME, PER CAPITA INCOMES, PET, PH, PLANT GROWTH, POLICY DISCUSSIONS, POLICY RESEARCH, POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER, POPULATION ASSOCIATION, POPULATION DATA, POPULATION DECLINES, POPULATION EFFECT, POPULOUS COUNTRY, PRECIPITATION, PRIMARY EDUCATION, PRIMARY SCHOOL, PRIMATE CITY, PROGRESS, PUBLIC SERVICES, PULL FACTORS, PUSH FACTORS, RAIN, RAINFALL, RAINFALL ANOMALIES, RAINFALL CLIMATOLOGY, RAINFALL DEFICITS, RAINFALL EFFECTS, RAINFALL FLUCTUATIONS, RAINFALL UNCERTAINTY, RAINFALL VARIATION, REGIONAL CLIMATE, REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE, REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH, RESOURCE ECONOMICS, RESPECT, RURAL AREAS, RURAL INFRASTRUCTURE, RURAL POPULATION, RURAL POPULATION GROWTH, RURAL PRODUCTION, RURAL RESIDENTS, SCIENCES, SEA, SEA LEVEL, SEASON, SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS, SOILS, SUMMER TEMPERATURE, TEMPERATURE, TEMPERATURE DATA, TEMPERATURE EFFECTS, TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY, TOTAL DEMAND, TROPICS, UNEP, URBAN AREAS, URBAN DEVELOPMENT, URBAN MIGRATION, URBAN POPULATION, URBAN POPULATION GROWTH, URBANIZATION, UTILITY FUNCTION, UTILITY FUNCTIONS, VULNERABILITY, WARS, WATER CYCLE, WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY, WORKFORCE,
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/06/19679968/50-years-urbanization-africa-examining-role-climate-change https://hdl.handle.net/10986/18757
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