The Real Exchange Rate and Export Growth : Are Services Different?

This paper considers the determinants of exports of modern services and traditional services. It considers the growth of export volumes as well as export surges, that is, the periods of rapid sustained export growth. It asks whether the determinants of export growth rates and export surges differ between merchandise, traditional services, and modern services and whether developing countries are different. It confirm the importance of the real exchange rate for export growth. The paper finds that the effect of the real exchange rate is even stronger for exports of services than for exports of goods and that it is especially strong for exports of modern services. The results suggest that in the course of their development, as developing countries shift from exporting commodities and merchandise to exporting traditional and modern services, appropriate policies toward the real exchange rate become even more important.

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Eichengreen, Barry, Gupta, Poonam
Format: Policy Research Working Paper biblioteca
Language:English
en_US
Published: World Bank, Washington, DC 2013-09
Subjects:ADVANCED COUNTRIES, ADVANCED ECONOMIES, AVERAGE GROWTH, AVERAGE GROWTH RATE, COMMODITIES, COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES, COMMUNICATIONS INFRASTRUCTURE, COMMUNICATIONS TECHNOLOGY, COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE, COMPETITION POLICY, COMPETITIVENESS, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, CONTRACT ENFORCEMENT, COUNTRY DUMMY, COUNTRY FIXED EFFECTS, COUNTRY LEVEL, CURRENCY, CURRENCY CRASHES, CURRENCY CRISES, DATA AVAILABILITY, DEPENDENT VARIABLE, DEVELOPED COUNTRIES, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPING COUNTRY, DEVELOPING ECONOMIES, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, DOMESTIC CREDIT/GDP, DOMESTIC SAVINGS, ECONOMETRICS, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, ECONOMIC REFORMS, ECONOMIC RESEARCH, ECONOMIC REVIEW, EXCHANGE RATE DEPRECIATION, EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS, EXCHANGE RATE MISALIGNMENT, EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENT, EXCHANGE RATES, EXPLANATORY VARIABLES, EXPORT GROWTH, EXPORT PROMOTION, EXPORTS, EXTERNAL DEBT, EXTERNALITIES, FACTOR ENDOWMENTS, FINANCIAL CRISES, FINANCIAL INTEGRATION, FINANCIAL REFORM, FINANCIAL REFORMS, FINANCIAL SECTOR, FINANCIAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENT, FINANCIAL SERVICES, FIXED COSTS, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, FUTURE RESEARCH, GDP, GDP PER CAPITA, GROWTH PERFORMANCE, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, HIGH GROWTH, HIGH INCOME COUNTRIES, HUMAN CAPITAL, INCOME COUNTRIES, INCOME GROUPS, INCREASING RETURNS, INDEPENDENT VARIABLES, INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES, INFORMATION ASYMMETRIES, INSURANCE, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, LABOR FORCE, LAGGED CHANGES, LDCS, MACROECONOMIC POLICIES, MARGINAL PRODUCT, MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES, NATIONAL INCOME, NATURAL MONOPOLY, NEGATIVE EFFECT, NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE, 0 HYPOTHESIS, OUTPUT, PER CAPITA INCOME, PER CAPITA INCOMES, POLICY RESEARCH, POLITICAL RISK, PRIVATE INVESTMENT, PUBLIC FINANCE, REAL EXCHANGE, REAL EXCHANGE RATE, REAL EXCHANGE RATE UNCERTAINTY, REAL EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY, REGIONAL INTEGRATION, REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS, RELATIVE PRICE, RELATIVE PRICES, RESERVE BANK, SAVING RATE, SAVINGS, SIGNIFICANT EFFECT, STANDARD DEVIATION, STRUCTURAL BREAK, STRUCTURAL CHANGE, SUSTAINED GROWTH, SYSTEMIC BANKING CRISES, TELECOMMUNICATIONS, TELECOMMUNICATIONS INFRASTRUCTURE, TRADE LIBERALIZATION, TRADE REFORMS, UNDERVALUATION, UNDERVALUED EXCHANGE RATE, WAGES, WHOLESALE PRICE INDICES, WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS, WORLD TRADE, WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION, WTO,
Online Access:http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/09/18325211/real-exchange-rate-export-growth-services-different
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/16846
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Summary:This paper considers the determinants of exports of modern services and traditional services. It considers the growth of export volumes as well as export surges, that is, the periods of rapid sustained export growth. It asks whether the determinants of export growth rates and export surges differ between merchandise, traditional services, and modern services and whether developing countries are different. It confirm the importance of the real exchange rate for export growth. The paper finds that the effect of the real exchange rate is even stronger for exports of services than for exports of goods and that it is especially strong for exports of modern services. The results suggest that in the course of their development, as developing countries shift from exporting commodities and merchandise to exporting traditional and modern services, appropriate policies toward the real exchange rate become even more important.