Growth Implosions, Debt Explosions, and My Aunt Marilyn : Do Growth Slowdowns Cause Public Debt Crises?
The worldwide slowdown in growth after 1975 was a major negative fiscal shock. Slower growth lowers the present value of tax revenues and primary surpluses and thus makes a given level of debt more burdensome. Most countries failed to adjust to the negative fiscal consequences of the growth implosion, so public-debt-to-GDP ratios exploded. The growth slowdown therefore played an important role in the debt crisis of the middle-income countries in the 1980s, the crisis of the heavily indebted poor countries (HIPCs) in the 1980s and 1990s, and the increased public debt burden of the industrial countries in the 1980s and 1990s. Moreover, the HIPCs' debt problems were worse than elsewhere because, as a result of poor policies, these countries grew more slowly after 1975 than other low-income countries. Econometric tests and fiscal solvency accounting confirm the important role of growth in debt crises.
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dig-okr-1098615742 |
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koha |
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dig-okr-10986157422024-08-08T18:04:39Z Growth Implosions, Debt Explosions, and My Aunt Marilyn : Do Growth Slowdowns Cause Public Debt Crises? Easterly, william DEBT CRISIS PUBLIC DEBT ECONOMIC STAGNATION ECONOMIC SHOCKS PRESENT VALUE CONSTRAINTS HEAVILY INDEBTED POOR COUNTRIES ECONOMIC GROWTH RATE FISCAL SURPLUS BUDGET MANAGEMENT DEBT SERVICING MIDDLE-INCOME ECONOMIES DEBT RESCHEDULING ADJUSTMENT PACKAGES AGRICULTURE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS BORROWING BUDGET CONSTRAINT BUDGET DEFICITS CONTINGENT LIABILITIES CURRENCY CRISES CURRENT ACCOUNT CURRENT RATIO DEBT DEBT BURDEN DEBT CRISES DEBT LEVEL DEBT OBLIGATIONS DEBT PROBLEMS DEBT RATIO DEBT RATIOS DEBT RELIEF DEBT RESCHEDULING DEBT SERVICE DEBT SERVICING DEBT STOCKS DEBT SUSTAINABILITY DEFICIT REDUCTION DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRY DISCOUNT RATE DOMESTIC DEBT ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC GROWTH ELECTRICITY GENERATION EXCHANGE RATE EXTERNAL DEBT FINANCIAL ASSETS FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT FISCAL DEFICITS FISCAL GAP FISCAL POLICIES FISCAL POLICY FOREIGN DEBT GDP GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES GROWTH GROWTH PROJECTIONS GROWTH RATE HIGH DEBT HIGHLY INDEBTED COUNTRIES INCOME INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES INDUSTRIAL ECONOMIES INFLATION INFLATION RATE INFLATION TAX INSOLVENCY INTEREST RATES INTERNATIONAL RESERVES LOW INCOME LOW INCOME COUNTRIES MACROECONOMICS MIDDLE INCOME MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES MIDDLE- INCOME COUNTRIES MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES MONEY BASE MONOPOLY NET WORTH OIL OIL RESERVES OVERVALUATION OVERVALUED EXCHANGE RATES POLICIES POLICY RESEARCH POPULATION GROWTH PRESENT VALUE PRIMARY DEFICIT PRIMARY DEFICITS PRIMARY SURPLUS PRIMARY SURPLUSES PUBLIC DEBT PUBLIC DEFICITS PUBLIC FINANCE PUBLIC FINANCES PUBLIC INVESTMENT PUBLIC SECTOR PUBLIC SECTOR SOLVENCY REAL EXCHANGE REAL EXCHANGE RATE REAL INTEREST REAL INTEREST RATE SLOW GROWTH SOCIAL SECURITY SOLVENCY SOLVENCY CONSTRAINT TAX REVENUE TAX REVENUES TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS TIME SERIES VALUATION WORLD DEBT TABLES The worldwide slowdown in growth after 1975 was a major negative fiscal shock. Slower growth lowers the present value of tax revenues and primary surpluses and thus makes a given level of debt more burdensome. Most countries failed to adjust to the negative fiscal consequences of the growth implosion, so public-debt-to-GDP ratios exploded. The growth slowdown therefore played an important role in the debt crisis of the middle-income countries in the 1980s, the crisis of the heavily indebted poor countries (HIPCs) in the 1980s and 1990s, and the increased public debt burden of the industrial countries in the 1980s and 1990s. Moreover, the HIPCs' debt problems were worse than elsewhere because, as a result of poor policies, these countries grew more slowly after 1975 than other low-income countries. Econometric tests and fiscal solvency accounting confirm the important role of growth in debt crises. 2013-09-09T20:50:52Z 2013-09-09T20:50:52Z 2001-01 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2001/01/1000470/growth-implosions-debt-explosions-aunt-marilyn-growth-slowdowns-cause-public-debt-crises https://hdl.handle.net/10986/15742 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 2531 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank application/pdf text/plain World Bank, Washington, DC |
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Banco Mundial |
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English en_US |
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DEBT CRISIS PUBLIC DEBT ECONOMIC STAGNATION ECONOMIC SHOCKS PRESENT VALUE CONSTRAINTS HEAVILY INDEBTED POOR COUNTRIES ECONOMIC GROWTH RATE FISCAL SURPLUS BUDGET MANAGEMENT DEBT SERVICING MIDDLE-INCOME ECONOMIES DEBT RESCHEDULING ADJUSTMENT PACKAGES AGRICULTURE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS BORROWING BUDGET CONSTRAINT BUDGET DEFICITS CONTINGENT LIABILITIES CURRENCY CRISES CURRENT ACCOUNT CURRENT RATIO DEBT DEBT BURDEN DEBT CRISES DEBT LEVEL DEBT OBLIGATIONS DEBT PROBLEMS DEBT RATIO DEBT RATIOS DEBT RELIEF DEBT RESCHEDULING DEBT SERVICE DEBT SERVICING DEBT STOCKS DEBT SUSTAINABILITY DEFICIT REDUCTION DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRY DISCOUNT RATE DOMESTIC DEBT ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC GROWTH ELECTRICITY GENERATION EXCHANGE RATE EXTERNAL DEBT FINANCIAL ASSETS FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT FISCAL DEFICITS FISCAL GAP FISCAL POLICIES FISCAL POLICY FOREIGN DEBT GDP GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES GROWTH GROWTH PROJECTIONS GROWTH RATE HIGH DEBT HIGHLY INDEBTED COUNTRIES INCOME INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES INDUSTRIAL ECONOMIES INFLATION INFLATION RATE INFLATION TAX INSOLVENCY INTEREST RATES INTERNATIONAL RESERVES LOW INCOME LOW INCOME COUNTRIES MACROECONOMICS MIDDLE INCOME MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES MIDDLE- INCOME COUNTRIES MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES MONEY BASE MONOPOLY NET WORTH OIL OIL RESERVES OVERVALUATION OVERVALUED EXCHANGE RATES POLICIES POLICY RESEARCH POPULATION GROWTH PRESENT VALUE PRIMARY DEFICIT PRIMARY DEFICITS PRIMARY SURPLUS PRIMARY SURPLUSES PUBLIC DEBT PUBLIC DEFICITS PUBLIC FINANCE PUBLIC FINANCES PUBLIC INVESTMENT PUBLIC SECTOR PUBLIC SECTOR SOLVENCY REAL EXCHANGE REAL EXCHANGE RATE REAL INTEREST REAL INTEREST RATE SLOW GROWTH SOCIAL SECURITY SOLVENCY SOLVENCY CONSTRAINT TAX REVENUE TAX REVENUES TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS TIME SERIES VALUATION WORLD DEBT TABLES DEBT CRISIS PUBLIC DEBT ECONOMIC STAGNATION ECONOMIC SHOCKS PRESENT VALUE CONSTRAINTS HEAVILY INDEBTED POOR COUNTRIES ECONOMIC GROWTH RATE FISCAL SURPLUS BUDGET MANAGEMENT DEBT SERVICING MIDDLE-INCOME ECONOMIES DEBT RESCHEDULING ADJUSTMENT PACKAGES AGRICULTURE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS BORROWING BUDGET CONSTRAINT BUDGET DEFICITS CONTINGENT LIABILITIES CURRENCY CRISES CURRENT ACCOUNT CURRENT RATIO DEBT DEBT BURDEN DEBT CRISES DEBT LEVEL DEBT OBLIGATIONS DEBT PROBLEMS DEBT RATIO DEBT RATIOS DEBT RELIEF DEBT RESCHEDULING DEBT SERVICE DEBT SERVICING DEBT STOCKS DEBT SUSTAINABILITY DEFICIT REDUCTION DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRY DISCOUNT RATE DOMESTIC DEBT ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC GROWTH ELECTRICITY GENERATION EXCHANGE RATE EXTERNAL DEBT FINANCIAL ASSETS FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT FISCAL DEFICITS FISCAL GAP FISCAL POLICIES FISCAL POLICY FOREIGN DEBT GDP GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES GROWTH GROWTH PROJECTIONS GROWTH RATE HIGH DEBT HIGHLY INDEBTED COUNTRIES INCOME INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES INDUSTRIAL ECONOMIES INFLATION INFLATION RATE INFLATION TAX INSOLVENCY INTEREST RATES INTERNATIONAL RESERVES LOW INCOME LOW INCOME COUNTRIES MACROECONOMICS MIDDLE INCOME MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES MIDDLE- INCOME COUNTRIES MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES MONEY BASE MONOPOLY NET WORTH OIL OIL RESERVES OVERVALUATION OVERVALUED EXCHANGE RATES POLICIES POLICY RESEARCH POPULATION GROWTH PRESENT VALUE PRIMARY DEFICIT PRIMARY DEFICITS PRIMARY SURPLUS PRIMARY SURPLUSES PUBLIC DEBT PUBLIC DEFICITS PUBLIC FINANCE PUBLIC FINANCES PUBLIC INVESTMENT PUBLIC SECTOR PUBLIC SECTOR SOLVENCY REAL EXCHANGE REAL EXCHANGE RATE REAL INTEREST REAL INTEREST RATE SLOW GROWTH SOCIAL SECURITY SOLVENCY SOLVENCY CONSTRAINT TAX REVENUE TAX REVENUES TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS TIME SERIES VALUATION WORLD DEBT TABLES |
| spellingShingle |
DEBT CRISIS PUBLIC DEBT ECONOMIC STAGNATION ECONOMIC SHOCKS PRESENT VALUE CONSTRAINTS HEAVILY INDEBTED POOR COUNTRIES ECONOMIC GROWTH RATE FISCAL SURPLUS BUDGET MANAGEMENT DEBT SERVICING MIDDLE-INCOME ECONOMIES DEBT RESCHEDULING ADJUSTMENT PACKAGES AGRICULTURE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS BORROWING BUDGET CONSTRAINT BUDGET DEFICITS CONTINGENT LIABILITIES CURRENCY CRISES CURRENT ACCOUNT CURRENT RATIO DEBT DEBT BURDEN DEBT CRISES DEBT LEVEL DEBT OBLIGATIONS DEBT PROBLEMS DEBT RATIO DEBT RATIOS DEBT RELIEF DEBT RESCHEDULING DEBT SERVICE DEBT SERVICING DEBT STOCKS DEBT SUSTAINABILITY DEFICIT REDUCTION DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRY DISCOUNT RATE DOMESTIC DEBT ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC GROWTH ELECTRICITY GENERATION EXCHANGE RATE EXTERNAL DEBT FINANCIAL ASSETS FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT FISCAL DEFICITS FISCAL GAP FISCAL POLICIES FISCAL POLICY FOREIGN DEBT GDP GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES GROWTH GROWTH PROJECTIONS GROWTH RATE HIGH DEBT HIGHLY INDEBTED COUNTRIES INCOME INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES INDUSTRIAL ECONOMIES INFLATION INFLATION RATE INFLATION TAX INSOLVENCY INTEREST RATES INTERNATIONAL RESERVES LOW INCOME LOW INCOME COUNTRIES MACROECONOMICS MIDDLE INCOME MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES MIDDLE- INCOME COUNTRIES MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES MONEY BASE MONOPOLY NET WORTH OIL OIL RESERVES OVERVALUATION OVERVALUED EXCHANGE RATES POLICIES POLICY RESEARCH POPULATION GROWTH PRESENT VALUE PRIMARY DEFICIT PRIMARY DEFICITS PRIMARY SURPLUS PRIMARY SURPLUSES PUBLIC DEBT PUBLIC DEFICITS PUBLIC FINANCE PUBLIC FINANCES PUBLIC INVESTMENT PUBLIC SECTOR PUBLIC SECTOR SOLVENCY REAL EXCHANGE REAL EXCHANGE RATE REAL INTEREST REAL INTEREST RATE SLOW GROWTH SOCIAL SECURITY SOLVENCY SOLVENCY CONSTRAINT TAX REVENUE TAX REVENUES TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS TIME SERIES VALUATION WORLD DEBT TABLES DEBT CRISIS PUBLIC DEBT ECONOMIC STAGNATION ECONOMIC SHOCKS PRESENT VALUE CONSTRAINTS HEAVILY INDEBTED POOR COUNTRIES ECONOMIC GROWTH RATE FISCAL SURPLUS BUDGET MANAGEMENT DEBT SERVICING MIDDLE-INCOME ECONOMIES DEBT RESCHEDULING ADJUSTMENT PACKAGES AGRICULTURE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS BORROWING BUDGET CONSTRAINT BUDGET DEFICITS CONTINGENT LIABILITIES CURRENCY CRISES CURRENT ACCOUNT CURRENT RATIO DEBT DEBT BURDEN DEBT CRISES DEBT LEVEL DEBT OBLIGATIONS DEBT PROBLEMS DEBT RATIO DEBT RATIOS DEBT RELIEF DEBT RESCHEDULING DEBT SERVICE DEBT SERVICING DEBT STOCKS DEBT SUSTAINABILITY DEFICIT REDUCTION DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRY DISCOUNT RATE DOMESTIC DEBT ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC GROWTH ELECTRICITY GENERATION EXCHANGE RATE EXTERNAL DEBT FINANCIAL ASSETS FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT FISCAL DEFICITS FISCAL GAP FISCAL POLICIES FISCAL POLICY FOREIGN DEBT GDP GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES GROWTH GROWTH PROJECTIONS GROWTH RATE HIGH DEBT HIGHLY INDEBTED COUNTRIES INCOME INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES INDUSTRIAL ECONOMIES INFLATION INFLATION RATE INFLATION TAX INSOLVENCY INTEREST RATES INTERNATIONAL RESERVES LOW INCOME LOW INCOME COUNTRIES MACROECONOMICS MIDDLE INCOME MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES MIDDLE- INCOME COUNTRIES MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES MONEY BASE MONOPOLY NET WORTH OIL OIL RESERVES OVERVALUATION OVERVALUED EXCHANGE RATES POLICIES POLICY RESEARCH POPULATION GROWTH PRESENT VALUE PRIMARY DEFICIT PRIMARY DEFICITS PRIMARY SURPLUS PRIMARY SURPLUSES PUBLIC DEBT PUBLIC DEFICITS PUBLIC FINANCE PUBLIC FINANCES PUBLIC INVESTMENT PUBLIC SECTOR PUBLIC SECTOR SOLVENCY REAL EXCHANGE REAL EXCHANGE RATE REAL INTEREST REAL INTEREST RATE SLOW GROWTH SOCIAL SECURITY SOLVENCY SOLVENCY CONSTRAINT TAX REVENUE TAX REVENUES TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS TIME SERIES VALUATION WORLD DEBT TABLES Easterly, william Growth Implosions, Debt Explosions, and My Aunt Marilyn : Do Growth Slowdowns Cause Public Debt Crises? |
| description |
The worldwide slowdown in growth after
1975 was a major negative fiscal shock. Slower growth lowers
the present value of tax revenues and primary surpluses and
thus makes a given level of debt more burdensome. Most
countries failed to adjust to the negative fiscal
consequences of the growth implosion, so public-debt-to-GDP
ratios exploded. The growth slowdown therefore played an
important role in the debt crisis of the middle-income
countries in the 1980s, the crisis of the heavily indebted
poor countries (HIPCs) in the 1980s and 1990s, and the
increased public debt burden of the industrial countries in
the 1980s and 1990s. Moreover, the HIPCs' debt problems
were worse than elsewhere because, as a result of poor
policies, these countries grew more slowly after 1975 than
other low-income countries. Econometric tests and fiscal
solvency accounting confirm the important role of growth in
debt crises. |
| topic_facet |
DEBT CRISIS PUBLIC DEBT ECONOMIC STAGNATION ECONOMIC SHOCKS PRESENT VALUE CONSTRAINTS HEAVILY INDEBTED POOR COUNTRIES ECONOMIC GROWTH RATE FISCAL SURPLUS BUDGET MANAGEMENT DEBT SERVICING MIDDLE-INCOME ECONOMIES DEBT RESCHEDULING ADJUSTMENT PACKAGES AGRICULTURE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS BORROWING BUDGET CONSTRAINT BUDGET DEFICITS CONTINGENT LIABILITIES CURRENCY CRISES CURRENT ACCOUNT CURRENT RATIO DEBT DEBT BURDEN DEBT CRISES DEBT LEVEL DEBT OBLIGATIONS DEBT PROBLEMS DEBT RATIO DEBT RATIOS DEBT RELIEF DEBT RESCHEDULING DEBT SERVICE DEBT SERVICING DEBT STOCKS DEBT SUSTAINABILITY DEFICIT REDUCTION DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRY DISCOUNT RATE DOMESTIC DEBT ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC GROWTH ELECTRICITY GENERATION EXCHANGE RATE EXTERNAL DEBT FINANCIAL ASSETS FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT FISCAL DEFICITS FISCAL GAP FISCAL POLICIES FISCAL POLICY FOREIGN DEBT GDP GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES GROWTH GROWTH PROJECTIONS GROWTH RATE HIGH DEBT HIGHLY INDEBTED COUNTRIES INCOME INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES INDUSTRIAL ECONOMIES INFLATION INFLATION RATE INFLATION TAX INSOLVENCY INTEREST RATES INTERNATIONAL RESERVES LOW INCOME LOW INCOME COUNTRIES MACROECONOMICS MIDDLE INCOME MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES MIDDLE- INCOME COUNTRIES MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES MONEY BASE MONOPOLY NET WORTH OIL OIL RESERVES OVERVALUATION OVERVALUED EXCHANGE RATES POLICIES POLICY RESEARCH POPULATION GROWTH PRESENT VALUE PRIMARY DEFICIT PRIMARY DEFICITS PRIMARY SURPLUS PRIMARY SURPLUSES PUBLIC DEBT PUBLIC DEFICITS PUBLIC FINANCE PUBLIC FINANCES PUBLIC INVESTMENT PUBLIC SECTOR PUBLIC SECTOR SOLVENCY REAL EXCHANGE REAL EXCHANGE RATE REAL INTEREST REAL INTEREST RATE SLOW GROWTH SOCIAL SECURITY SOLVENCY SOLVENCY CONSTRAINT TAX REVENUE TAX REVENUES TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS TIME SERIES VALUATION WORLD DEBT TABLES |
| author |
Easterly, william |
| author_facet |
Easterly, william |
| author_sort |
Easterly, william |
| title |
Growth Implosions, Debt Explosions, and My Aunt Marilyn : Do Growth Slowdowns Cause Public Debt Crises? |
| title_short |
Growth Implosions, Debt Explosions, and My Aunt Marilyn : Do Growth Slowdowns Cause Public Debt Crises? |
| title_full |
Growth Implosions, Debt Explosions, and My Aunt Marilyn : Do Growth Slowdowns Cause Public Debt Crises? |
| title_fullStr |
Growth Implosions, Debt Explosions, and My Aunt Marilyn : Do Growth Slowdowns Cause Public Debt Crises? |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Growth Implosions, Debt Explosions, and My Aunt Marilyn : Do Growth Slowdowns Cause Public Debt Crises? |
| title_sort |
growth implosions, debt explosions, and my aunt marilyn : do growth slowdowns cause public debt crises? |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2001-01 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2001/01/1000470/growth-implosions-debt-explosions-aunt-marilyn-growth-slowdowns-cause-public-debt-crises https://hdl.handle.net/10986/15742 |
| work_keys_str_mv |
AT easterlywilliam growthimplosionsdebtexplosionsandmyauntmarilyndogrowthslowdownscausepublicdebtcrises |
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