Growth, Inequality, and Simulated Poverty Paths for Tanzania, 1992-2002
Although Tanzania experienced relatively rapid growth in per capita GDP in the 1995 2001 period, household budget survey (HBS) data show only a modest and statistically insignificant decline in poverty between 1992 and 2001. To assess the likely trajectory of poverty rates over the course of the period, changes in poverty are simulated using unit-record HBS data and national accounts growth rates under varying assumptions for growth rates and inequality changes. To this end the projection approach of Datt and Walker (2002) is used along with an extension that is better suited to taking into account distributional changes observed between the two household surveys. The simulations suggest that following increases in poverty during the economic slowdown of the early 1990s, recent growth in Tanzania has brought a decline in poverty, particularly in urban areas. Unless recent growth is sustained, the country will not meet its 2015 Millennium Development Goal (MDG). Poverty reduction is on track in urban areas, but reaching the MDG target for bringing down poverty in rural areas, where most Tanzanians live, requires sustaining high growth in rural output per capita.
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| Language: | English en_US |
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World Bank, Washington, D.C.
2004-10
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| Subjects: | AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT, AGRICULTURE, BASE YEAR, CONSUMPTION LEVELS, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC INFORMATION, ECONOMIC STAGNATION, EMPLOYMENT, GDP, GDP DEFLATOR, GDP PER CAPITA, GINI COEFFICIENT, GROWTH RATE, HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS, HOUSEHOLD DATA, HOUSEHOLDS, INCOME, LORENZ CURVE, MACROECONOMIC GROWTH, MIGRATION, NATIONAL ACCOUNTS, NATIONAL INCOME, OUTPUT PER CAPITA, POPULATION GROWTH, REAL GDP, UNCERTAINTY, URBAN AREAS, |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2004/10/5278822/growth-inequality-simulated-poverty-paths-tanzania-1992-2002 https://hdl.handle.net/10986/14210 |
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dig-okr-10986142102024-08-08T17:29:26Z Growth, Inequality, and Simulated Poverty Paths for Tanzania, 1992-2002 Demombynes, Gabriel Hoogeveen, Johannes G. AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT AGRICULTURE BASE YEAR CONSUMPTION LEVELS ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC INFORMATION ECONOMIC STAGNATION EMPLOYMENT GDP GDP DEFLATOR GDP PER CAPITA GINI COEFFICIENT GROWTH RATE HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLDS INCOME LORENZ CURVE MACROECONOMIC GROWTH MIGRATION NATIONAL ACCOUNTS NATIONAL INCOME OUTPUT PER CAPITA POPULATION GROWTH REAL GDP UNCERTAINTY URBAN AREAS Although Tanzania experienced relatively rapid growth in per capita GDP in the 1995 2001 period, household budget survey (HBS) data show only a modest and statistically insignificant decline in poverty between 1992 and 2001. To assess the likely trajectory of poverty rates over the course of the period, changes in poverty are simulated using unit-record HBS data and national accounts growth rates under varying assumptions for growth rates and inequality changes. To this end the projection approach of Datt and Walker (2002) is used along with an extension that is better suited to taking into account distributional changes observed between the two household surveys. The simulations suggest that following increases in poverty during the economic slowdown of the early 1990s, recent growth in Tanzania has brought a decline in poverty, particularly in urban areas. Unless recent growth is sustained, the country will not meet its 2015 Millennium Development Goal (MDG). Poverty reduction is on track in urban areas, but reaching the MDG target for bringing down poverty in rural areas, where most Tanzanians live, requires sustaining high growth in rural output per capita. 2013-06-26T17:23:30Z 2013-06-26T17:23:30Z 2004-10 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2004/10/5278822/growth-inequality-simulated-poverty-paths-tanzania-1992-2002 https://hdl.handle.net/10986/14210 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No.3432 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank application/pdf text/plain World Bank, Washington, D.C. |
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America del Norte |
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| language |
English en_US |
| topic |
AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT AGRICULTURE BASE YEAR CONSUMPTION LEVELS ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC INFORMATION ECONOMIC STAGNATION EMPLOYMENT GDP GDP DEFLATOR GDP PER CAPITA GINI COEFFICIENT GROWTH RATE HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLDS INCOME LORENZ CURVE MACROECONOMIC GROWTH MIGRATION NATIONAL ACCOUNTS NATIONAL INCOME OUTPUT PER CAPITA POPULATION GROWTH REAL GDP UNCERTAINTY URBAN AREAS AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT AGRICULTURE BASE YEAR CONSUMPTION LEVELS ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC INFORMATION ECONOMIC STAGNATION EMPLOYMENT GDP GDP DEFLATOR GDP PER CAPITA GINI COEFFICIENT GROWTH RATE HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLDS INCOME LORENZ CURVE MACROECONOMIC GROWTH MIGRATION NATIONAL ACCOUNTS NATIONAL INCOME OUTPUT PER CAPITA POPULATION GROWTH REAL GDP UNCERTAINTY URBAN AREAS |
| spellingShingle |
AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT AGRICULTURE BASE YEAR CONSUMPTION LEVELS ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC INFORMATION ECONOMIC STAGNATION EMPLOYMENT GDP GDP DEFLATOR GDP PER CAPITA GINI COEFFICIENT GROWTH RATE HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLDS INCOME LORENZ CURVE MACROECONOMIC GROWTH MIGRATION NATIONAL ACCOUNTS NATIONAL INCOME OUTPUT PER CAPITA POPULATION GROWTH REAL GDP UNCERTAINTY URBAN AREAS AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT AGRICULTURE BASE YEAR CONSUMPTION LEVELS ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC INFORMATION ECONOMIC STAGNATION EMPLOYMENT GDP GDP DEFLATOR GDP PER CAPITA GINI COEFFICIENT GROWTH RATE HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLDS INCOME LORENZ CURVE MACROECONOMIC GROWTH MIGRATION NATIONAL ACCOUNTS NATIONAL INCOME OUTPUT PER CAPITA POPULATION GROWTH REAL GDP UNCERTAINTY URBAN AREAS Demombynes, Gabriel Hoogeveen, Johannes G. Growth, Inequality, and Simulated Poverty Paths for Tanzania, 1992-2002 |
| description |
Although Tanzania experienced relatively
rapid growth in per capita GDP in the 1995 2001 period,
household budget survey (HBS) data show only a modest and
statistically insignificant decline in poverty between 1992
and 2001. To assess the likely trajectory of poverty rates
over the course of the period, changes in poverty are
simulated using unit-record HBS data and national accounts
growth rates under varying assumptions for growth rates and
inequality changes. To this end the projection approach of
Datt and Walker (2002) is used along with an extension that
is better suited to taking into account distributional
changes observed between the two household surveys. The
simulations suggest that following increases in poverty
during the economic slowdown of the early 1990s, recent
growth in Tanzania has brought a decline in poverty,
particularly in urban areas. Unless recent growth is
sustained, the country will not meet its 2015 Millennium
Development Goal (MDG). Poverty reduction is on track in
urban areas, but reaching the MDG target for bringing down
poverty in rural areas, where most Tanzanians live, requires
sustaining high growth in rural output per capita. |
| topic_facet |
AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT AGRICULTURE BASE YEAR CONSUMPTION LEVELS ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC INFORMATION ECONOMIC STAGNATION EMPLOYMENT GDP GDP DEFLATOR GDP PER CAPITA GINI COEFFICIENT GROWTH RATE HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLDS INCOME LORENZ CURVE MACROECONOMIC GROWTH MIGRATION NATIONAL ACCOUNTS NATIONAL INCOME OUTPUT PER CAPITA POPULATION GROWTH REAL GDP UNCERTAINTY URBAN AREAS |
| author |
Demombynes, Gabriel Hoogeveen, Johannes G. |
| author_facet |
Demombynes, Gabriel Hoogeveen, Johannes G. |
| author_sort |
Demombynes, Gabriel |
| title |
Growth, Inequality, and Simulated Poverty Paths for Tanzania, 1992-2002 |
| title_short |
Growth, Inequality, and Simulated Poverty Paths for Tanzania, 1992-2002 |
| title_full |
Growth, Inequality, and Simulated Poverty Paths for Tanzania, 1992-2002 |
| title_fullStr |
Growth, Inequality, and Simulated Poverty Paths for Tanzania, 1992-2002 |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Growth, Inequality, and Simulated Poverty Paths for Tanzania, 1992-2002 |
| title_sort |
growth, inequality, and simulated poverty paths for tanzania, 1992-2002 |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, D.C. |
| publishDate |
2004-10 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2004/10/5278822/growth-inequality-simulated-poverty-paths-tanzania-1992-2002 https://hdl.handle.net/10986/14210 |
| work_keys_str_mv |
AT demombynesgabriel growthinequalityandsimulatedpovertypathsfortanzania19922002 AT hoogeveenjohannesg growthinequalityandsimulatedpovertypathsfortanzania19922002 |
| _version_ |
1807159770163970048 |