Assessing changes in species distribution from sequential large-scale forest inventories

• Context It is assumed that global change is already affecting the composition, structure and distribution of forest ecosystems; however, detailed evidences of altitudinal and latitudinal shifts are still scarce. • Aims To develop a method based on National Forest Inventory (NFI) to assess spatio-temporal changes in species distributions. • Methods We develop an approach based on universal kriging to compare species distribution models from the different NFI cycles and regardless of the differences in the sampling schemes used. Furthermore, a confidence interval approach is used to assess significant changes in species distribution. The approach is applied to some of the southernmost populations of Pinus sylvestris and Fagus sylvatica in the Western Pyrenees over the last 40 years. • Results An increase of the presence of the two species in the region was observed. Scots pine distribution has shifted about 1.5 km northwards over recent decades, whereas the European beech has extended its distribution southwards by about 2 km. Furthermore, the optimum altitude for both species has risen by about 200 m. As a result, the zone in which the two species coexist has been enlarged. • Conclusions This approach provides a useful tool to compare NFI data from different sampling schemes, quantifying and testing significant shifts in tree species distribution over recent decades across geographical gradients. © 2013 INRA and Springer-Verlag France.