Empirical and process-based models predict enhanced beech growth in European mountains under climate change scenarios: A multimodel approach
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Elsevier
2023-08-25
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| Subjects: | Dendrochronology, Ecosystem dynamics, European beech, Global climate change, Process-based growth model, Tree growth, |
| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10261/351633 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000780 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003759 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100014180 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100005992 https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/85163255096 |
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Dendrochronology Ecosystem dynamics European beech Global climate change Process-based growth model Tree growth Dendrochronology Ecosystem dynamics European beech Global climate change Process-based growth model Tree growth |
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Dendrochronology Ecosystem dynamics European beech Global climate change Process-based growth model Tree growth Dendrochronology Ecosystem dynamics European beech Global climate change Process-based growth model Tree growth Bosela, Michal Rubio-Cuadrado, Álvaro Marcis, Peter Merganičová, Katarina Fleischer, Peter Forrester, David I. Uhl, Enno Avdagić, Admir Bellan, Michal Bielak, Kamil Bravo, Felipe Coll, Lluís Cseke, Klára Río, Miren del Dinca, Lucian Dobor, Laura Drozdowski, Stanisław Giammarchi, Francesco Gömöryová, Erika Ibrahimspahić, Aida Kašanin-Grubin, Milica Klopcic, Matija Kurylyak, Viktor Montes, Fernando Pach, Maciej Ruiz-Peinado, Ricardo Skrzyszewski, Jerzy Stajić, Branko Stojanovic, Dejan Svoboda, Miroslav Tonon, Giustino Versace, Soraya Mitrovic, Suzana Zlatanov, Tzvetan Pretzsch, Hans Tognetti, Roberto Empirical and process-based models predict enhanced beech growth in European mountains under climate change scenarios: A multimodel approach |
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19 Pág. |
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Slovak Research and Development Agency |
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Slovak Research and Development Agency Bosela, Michal Rubio-Cuadrado, Álvaro Marcis, Peter Merganičová, Katarina Fleischer, Peter Forrester, David I. Uhl, Enno Avdagić, Admir Bellan, Michal Bielak, Kamil Bravo, Felipe Coll, Lluís Cseke, Klára Río, Miren del Dinca, Lucian Dobor, Laura Drozdowski, Stanisław Giammarchi, Francesco Gömöryová, Erika Ibrahimspahić, Aida Kašanin-Grubin, Milica Klopcic, Matija Kurylyak, Viktor Montes, Fernando Pach, Maciej Ruiz-Peinado, Ricardo Skrzyszewski, Jerzy Stajić, Branko Stojanovic, Dejan Svoboda, Miroslav Tonon, Giustino Versace, Soraya Mitrovic, Suzana Zlatanov, Tzvetan Pretzsch, Hans Tognetti, Roberto |
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artículo |
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Dendrochronology Ecosystem dynamics European beech Global climate change Process-based growth model Tree growth |
| author |
Bosela, Michal Rubio-Cuadrado, Álvaro Marcis, Peter Merganičová, Katarina Fleischer, Peter Forrester, David I. Uhl, Enno Avdagić, Admir Bellan, Michal Bielak, Kamil Bravo, Felipe Coll, Lluís Cseke, Klára Río, Miren del Dinca, Lucian Dobor, Laura Drozdowski, Stanisław Giammarchi, Francesco Gömöryová, Erika Ibrahimspahić, Aida Kašanin-Grubin, Milica Klopcic, Matija Kurylyak, Viktor Montes, Fernando Pach, Maciej Ruiz-Peinado, Ricardo Skrzyszewski, Jerzy Stajić, Branko Stojanovic, Dejan Svoboda, Miroslav Tonon, Giustino Versace, Soraya Mitrovic, Suzana Zlatanov, Tzvetan Pretzsch, Hans Tognetti, Roberto |
| author_sort |
Bosela, Michal |
| title |
Empirical and process-based models predict enhanced beech growth in European mountains under climate change scenarios: A multimodel approach |
| title_short |
Empirical and process-based models predict enhanced beech growth in European mountains under climate change scenarios: A multimodel approach |
| title_full |
Empirical and process-based models predict enhanced beech growth in European mountains under climate change scenarios: A multimodel approach |
| title_fullStr |
Empirical and process-based models predict enhanced beech growth in European mountains under climate change scenarios: A multimodel approach |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Empirical and process-based models predict enhanced beech growth in European mountains under climate change scenarios: A multimodel approach |
| title_sort |
empirical and process-based models predict enhanced beech growth in european mountains under climate change scenarios: a multimodel approach |
| publisher |
Elsevier |
| publishDate |
2023-08-25 |
| url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10261/351633 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000780 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003759 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100014180 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100005992 https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/85163255096 |
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dig-inia-es-10261-3516332024-10-28T21:37:00Z Empirical and process-based models predict enhanced beech growth in European mountains under climate change scenarios: A multimodel approach Bosela, Michal Rubio-Cuadrado, Álvaro Marcis, Peter Merganičová, Katarina Fleischer, Peter Forrester, David I. Uhl, Enno Avdagić, Admir Bellan, Michal Bielak, Kamil Bravo, Felipe Coll, Lluís Cseke, Klára Río, Miren del Dinca, Lucian Dobor, Laura Drozdowski, Stanisław Giammarchi, Francesco Gömöryová, Erika Ibrahimspahić, Aida Kašanin-Grubin, Milica Klopcic, Matija Kurylyak, Viktor Montes, Fernando Pach, Maciej Ruiz-Peinado, Ricardo Skrzyszewski, Jerzy Stajić, Branko Stojanovic, Dejan Svoboda, Miroslav Tonon, Giustino Versace, Soraya Mitrovic, Suzana Zlatanov, Tzvetan Pretzsch, Hans Tognetti, Roberto Slovak Research and Development Agency Slovenian Research Agency Ministry of Civil Affairs of Bosnia and Herzegovina Junta de Castilla y León European Commission Universidad Politécnica de Madrid Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development (Serbia) Ministry of Education and Science (Bulgaria) Bosela, Michal [0000-0001-6706-8614] Rubio-Cuadrado, Álvaro [0000-0001-5299-6063] Marcis, Peter [0000-0001-5143-3509] Merganičová, Katarina [0000-0003-4380-7472] Forrester, David I. [0000-0003-4546-3554] Uhl, Enno [0000-0002-7847-923X] Avdagić, Admir [0000-0001-5866-6946] Bellan, Michal [0000-0001-9602-4629] Bielak, Kamil [0000-0002-1327-4911] Bravo, Felipe [0000-0001-7348-6695] Coll, Lluís [0000-0002-8035-5949] Cseke, Klára [0000-0002-1728-5167] Río, Miren del [0000-0001-7496-3713] Dinca, Lucian [0000-0003-0399-3688] Dobor, Laura [0000-0001-6712-9827] Drozdowski, Stanisław [0000-0002-1253-7281] Giammarchi, Francesco [0000-0003-3999-3583] Gömöryová, Erika [0000-0002-0374-1168] Ibrahimspahić, Aida [0000-0002-2682-6463] Kašanin-Grubin, Milica [0000-0002-7764-2509] Klopcic, Matija [0000-0003-2619-9073] Kurylyak, Viktor [0000-0002-8647-6514] Montes, Fernando [0000-0001-5859-8533] Pach, Maciej [0000-0002-9833-867X] Ruiz-Peinado, Ricardo [0000-0003-0126-1651] Skrzyszewski, Jerzy [0000-0003-4330-5827] Stajić, Branko [0000-0001-8542-3173] Stojanovic, Dejan [0000-0003-2967-2049] Svoboda, Miroslav [0000-0003-4050-3422] Tonon, Giustino [0000-0002-4851-0662] Mitrovic, Suzana [0000-0003-1855-4418] Zlatanov, Tzvetan [0000-0003-4205-3429] Pretzsch, Hans [0000-0002-4958-1868] Tognetti, Roberto [0000-0002-7771-6176] Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [https://ror.org/02gfc7t72] Dendrochronology Ecosystem dynamics European beech Global climate change Process-based growth model Tree growth 19 Pág. Process-based models and empirical modelling techniques are frequently used to (i) explore the sensitivity of tree growth to environmental variables, and (ii) predict the future growth of trees and forest stands under climate change scenarios. However, modelling approaches substantially influence predictions of the sensitivity of trees to environmental factors. Here, we used tree-ring width (TRW) data from 1630 beech trees from a network of 70 plots established across European mountains to build empirical predictive growth models using various modelling approaches. In addition, we used 3-PG and Biome-BGCMuSo process-based models to compare growth predictions with derived empirical models. Results revealed similar prediction errors (RMSE) across models ranging between 3.71 and 7.54 cm2 of basal area increment (BAI). The models explained most of the variability in BAI ranging from 54 % to 87 %. Selected explanatory variables (despite being statistically highly significant) and the pattern of the growth sensitivity differed between models substantially. We identified only five factors with the same effect and the same sensitivity pattern in all empirical models: tree DBH, competition index, elevation, Gini index of DBH, and soil silt content. However, the sensitivity to most of the climate variables was low and inconsistent among the empirical models. Both empirical and process-based models suggest that beech in European mountains will, on average, likely experience better growth conditions under both 4.5 and 8.5 RCP scenarios. The process-based models indicated that beech may grow better across European mountains by 1.05 to 1.4 times in warmer conditions. The empirical models identified several drivers of tree growth that are not included in the current process-based models (e.g., different nutrients) but may have a substantial effect on final results, particularly if they are limiting factors. Hence, future development of process-based models may build upon our findings to increase their ability to correctly capture ecosystem dynamics. The study was supported by the COST Action CA15226 CLIMO “Climate-Smart Forestry in Mountain Regions”. MB and PM were additionally supported by the Slovak Research and Development Agency via the projects APVV-15-0265, APVV-18-0390, APVV-18-0086 and APVV-19-0183. MK was supported by the Slovenian Research Agency (ARRS) via the research core funding P4-0059 “Forest, forestry and renewable forest resources”. AA was supported by the Ministry of Civil Affairs of Bosnia and Herzegovina. FB was supported by the Castilla and León regional government (Spain) excellence projects (CLU-2019-01 y CL-EI-2021-05) and research project VA183P20 co-financed by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF). LD and KM were supported by the OP RDE via grant no. CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/0000803 “Advanced research supporting the forestry and wood-processing sector's adaptation to global change and the 4th industrial revolution”. KM was additionally supported by the project “Scientific support of climate change adaptation in agriculture and mitigation of soil degradation” (grant no. ITMS2014+ 313011W580) under the Integrated Infrastructure Operational Programme funded by the ERDF. The authors gratefully acknowledge the Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (www.upm.es) for providing computing resources on Magerit Supercomputer (www.cesvima.upm.es). MKG was funded by the Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia via grant no.: 451–03-68/2022–14/200026 and DS via grant no.: 451-03-68/2022-14/200197. TZ was supported by the National Roadmap for Research Infrastructure (2020–2027), Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Bulgaria, through agreements nos. DO1-405/18.12.2020 and DO1-163/28.07.2022 (LTER-BG). Peer reviewed 2024-03-22T16:47:16Z 2024-03-22T16:47:16Z 2023-08-25 artículo http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 Science of the Total Environment 888: e164123 (2023) 0048-9697 http://hdl.handle.net/10261/351633 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164123 1879-1026 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000780 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003759 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100014180 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100005992 37182772 2-s2.0-85163255096 https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/85163255096 en #PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE# info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/CA15226 Instituto de Ciencias Forestales (ICIFOR) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164123 Sí open Elsevier |