The 21st century climate change effects on the forests and primary conifers in central Siberia
Regional studies have shown that winters warmed 2-3 °C while summers warmed 1-2 °C during the1960-2010 period in central Siberia. Increased warming predicted from general circulation models (GCMs) by the end of the century is expected to impact Siberian vegetation. Our goal is to evaluate the consequences of climate warming on vegetation, forests, and forest-forming tree species in central Siberia. We use our envelope-type bioclimatic models of the Siberian forests and major tree conifer species based on three climatic indices which characterise their warmth and moisture requirements and cold resistance, and on one soil factor that charactrises their tolerance to permafrost. Coupling our bioclimatic models with the climatic indices and the permafrost distributions, we predict the potential habitats of forests and forest-forming tree species in current climate conditions and also in the 2080 projected climate. In the 2080 drier climate conditions, Siberian forests are simulated to decrease significantly and shift northwards while forest-steppe and steppe would come to dominate 50 % of central Siberia. Permafrost is not predicted to thaw deep enough to sustain dark (Pinus sibirica, Abies sibirica, and Picea obovata) taiga. Dahurian larch (L. gmelinii+cajanderi), which is able to withstand permafrost, would remain the dominant tree species. Light conifers (Larix spp. and Pinus sylvestris) may gain an advantage over dark conifers in a predicted dry climate due to their resistance to water stress and wildfire. Habitats for new temperate broadleaf forests, non-existent in Siberia at present, are predicted by 2080.
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Artículo de revista biblioteca |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Universidad Austral de Chile, Facultad de Ciencias Forestales
2019-06-12T02:00:22Z
|
| Subjects: | climate warming, bioclimatic models, major conifer ranges, Central Siberia, |
| Online Access: | https://scielo.conicyt.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0717-92002012000300004 https://bibliotecadigital.infor.cl/handle/20.500.12220/28815 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| id |
dig-infor-cl-20.500.12220-28815 |
|---|---|
| record_format |
koha |
| spelling |
dig-infor-cl-20.500.12220-288152019-06-12T02:00:22Z The 21st century climate change effects on the forests and primary conifers in central Siberia Tchebakova,Nadezda M Parfenova,Elena I climate warming bioclimatic models major conifer ranges Central Siberia Regional studies have shown that winters warmed 2-3 °C while summers warmed 1-2 °C during the1960-2010 period in central Siberia. Increased warming predicted from general circulation models (GCMs) by the end of the century is expected to impact Siberian vegetation. Our goal is to evaluate the consequences of climate warming on vegetation, forests, and forest-forming tree species in central Siberia. We use our envelope-type bioclimatic models of the Siberian forests and major tree conifer species based on three climatic indices which characterise their warmth and moisture requirements and cold resistance, and on one soil factor that charactrises their tolerance to permafrost. Coupling our bioclimatic models with the climatic indices and the permafrost distributions, we predict the potential habitats of forests and forest-forming tree species in current climate conditions and also in the 2080 projected climate. In the 2080 drier climate conditions, Siberian forests are simulated to decrease significantly and shift northwards while forest-steppe and steppe would come to dominate 50 % of central Siberia. Permafrost is not predicted to thaw deep enough to sustain dark (Pinus sibirica, Abies sibirica, and Picea obovata) taiga. Dahurian larch (L. gmelinii+cajanderi), which is able to withstand permafrost, would remain the dominant tree species. Light conifers (Larix spp. and Pinus sylvestris) may gain an advantage over dark conifers in a predicted dry climate due to their resistance to water stress and wildfire. Habitats for new temperate broadleaf forests, non-existent in Siberia at present, are predicted by 2080. 2012-01-01 2019-06-12T02:00:22Z 2019-06-12T02:00:22Z Artículo de revista https://scielo.conicyt.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0717-92002012000300004 https://bibliotecadigital.infor.cl/handle/20.500.12220/28815 en 10.4067/S0717-92002012000300004 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess text/html Universidad Austral de Chile, Facultad de Ciencias Forestales Bosque (Valdivia) v.33 n.3 2012 |
| institution |
INFOR CL |
| collection |
DSpace |
| country |
Chile |
| countrycode |
CL |
| component |
Bibliográfico |
| access |
En linea |
| databasecode |
dig-infor-cl |
| tag |
biblioteca |
| region |
America del Sur |
| libraryname |
Biblioteca del INFOR Chile |
| language |
English |
| topic |
climate warming bioclimatic models major conifer ranges Central Siberia climate warming bioclimatic models major conifer ranges Central Siberia |
| spellingShingle |
climate warming bioclimatic models major conifer ranges Central Siberia climate warming bioclimatic models major conifer ranges Central Siberia Tchebakova,Nadezda M Parfenova,Elena I The 21st century climate change effects on the forests and primary conifers in central Siberia |
| description |
Regional studies have shown that winters warmed 2-3 °C while summers warmed 1-2 °C during the1960-2010 period in central Siberia. Increased warming predicted from general circulation models (GCMs) by the end of the century is expected to impact Siberian vegetation. Our goal is to evaluate the consequences of climate warming on vegetation, forests, and forest-forming tree species in central Siberia. We use our envelope-type bioclimatic models of the Siberian forests and major tree conifer species based on three climatic indices which characterise their warmth and moisture requirements and cold resistance, and on one soil factor that charactrises their tolerance to permafrost. Coupling our bioclimatic models with the climatic indices and the permafrost distributions, we predict the potential habitats of forests and forest-forming tree species in current climate conditions and also in the 2080 projected climate. In the 2080 drier climate conditions, Siberian forests are simulated to decrease significantly and shift northwards while forest-steppe and steppe would come to dominate 50 % of central Siberia. Permafrost is not predicted to thaw deep enough to sustain dark (Pinus sibirica, Abies sibirica, and Picea obovata) taiga. Dahurian larch (L. gmelinii+cajanderi), which is able to withstand permafrost, would remain the dominant tree species. Light conifers (Larix spp. and Pinus sylvestris) may gain an advantage over dark conifers in a predicted dry climate due to their resistance to water stress and wildfire. Habitats for new temperate broadleaf forests, non-existent in Siberia at present, are predicted by 2080. |
| format |
Artículo de revista |
| topic_facet |
climate warming bioclimatic models major conifer ranges Central Siberia |
| author |
Tchebakova,Nadezda M Parfenova,Elena I |
| author_facet |
Tchebakova,Nadezda M Parfenova,Elena I |
| author_sort |
Tchebakova,Nadezda M |
| title |
The 21st century climate change effects on the forests and primary conifers in central Siberia |
| title_short |
The 21st century climate change effects on the forests and primary conifers in central Siberia |
| title_full |
The 21st century climate change effects on the forests and primary conifers in central Siberia |
| title_fullStr |
The 21st century climate change effects on the forests and primary conifers in central Siberia |
| title_full_unstemmed |
The 21st century climate change effects on the forests and primary conifers in central Siberia |
| title_sort |
21st century climate change effects on the forests and primary conifers in central siberia |
| publisher |
Universidad Austral de Chile, Facultad de Ciencias Forestales |
| publishDate |
2019-06-12T02:00:22Z |
| url |
https://scielo.conicyt.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0717-92002012000300004 https://bibliotecadigital.infor.cl/handle/20.500.12220/28815 |
| work_keys_str_mv |
AT tchebakovanadezdam the21stcenturyclimatechangeeffectsontheforestsandprimaryconifersincentralsiberia AT parfenovaelenai the21stcenturyclimatechangeeffectsontheforestsandprimaryconifersincentralsiberia AT tchebakovanadezdam 21stcenturyclimatechangeeffectsontheforestsandprimaryconifersincentralsiberia AT parfenovaelenai 21stcenturyclimatechangeeffectsontheforestsandprimaryconifersincentralsiberia |
| _version_ |
1767599501837598720 |