Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems
22 pages, 5 figures, 1 table, supplementary information https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01173-9.-- Data availabilityAll standardized forcing variables from the ESMs are available at https://doi.org/10.48364/ISIMIP.575744.1; all outputs from the MEMs are available via ISIMIP (https://www.isimip.org/gettingstarted/data-access/).-- Code availabilityAll code used to analyse simulations is available at https://github.com/Fish-MIP/CMIP5vsCMIP6
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2021-11
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22 pages, 5 figures, 1 table, supplementary information https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01173-9.-- Data availabilityAll standardized forcing variables from the ESMs are available at https://doi.org/10.48364/ISIMIP.575744.1; all outputs from the MEMs are available via ISIMIP (https://www.isimip.org/gettingstarted/data-access/).-- Code availabilityAll code used to analyse simulations is available at https://github.com/Fish-MIP/CMIP5vsCMIP6 |
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Jarislowsky Foundation Tittensor, Derek P. Novaglio, Camilla Harrison, Cheryl Heneghan, Ryan F. Barrier, Nicolas Bianchi, Daniele Bopp, Laurent Bryndum‐Buchholz, Andrea Britten, Gregory L. Büchner, Matthias Cheung, William W.L. Christensen, Villy Coll, Marta Dunne, John P. Eddy, Tyler D. Everett, Jason D. Fernandes-Salvador, José A. Fulton, Elizabeth A. Galbraith, Eric D. Gascuel, Didier Guiet, Jerome John, Jasmin G. Link, Jason S. Lotze, Heike K. Maury, Olivier Ortega-Cisneros, Kelly Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano Petrik, Colleen M. Pontavice, Hubert du Rault, Jonathan Richardson, Anthony J. Shannon, Lynne J. Shin, Yunne-Jai Steenbeek, Jeroen Stock, Charles A. Blanchard, Julia L. |
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artículo |
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Tittensor, Derek P. Novaglio, Camilla Harrison, Cheryl Heneghan, Ryan F. Barrier, Nicolas Bianchi, Daniele Bopp, Laurent Bryndum‐Buchholz, Andrea Britten, Gregory L. Büchner, Matthias Cheung, William W.L. Christensen, Villy Coll, Marta Dunne, John P. Eddy, Tyler D. Everett, Jason D. Fernandes-Salvador, José A. Fulton, Elizabeth A. Galbraith, Eric D. Gascuel, Didier Guiet, Jerome John, Jasmin G. Link, Jason S. Lotze, Heike K. Maury, Olivier Ortega-Cisneros, Kelly Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano Petrik, Colleen M. Pontavice, Hubert du Rault, Jonathan Richardson, Anthony J. Shannon, Lynne J. Shin, Yunne-Jai Steenbeek, Jeroen Stock, Charles A. Blanchard, Julia L. |
| spellingShingle |
Tittensor, Derek P. Novaglio, Camilla Harrison, Cheryl Heneghan, Ryan F. Barrier, Nicolas Bianchi, Daniele Bopp, Laurent Bryndum‐Buchholz, Andrea Britten, Gregory L. Büchner, Matthias Cheung, William W.L. Christensen, Villy Coll, Marta Dunne, John P. Eddy, Tyler D. Everett, Jason D. Fernandes-Salvador, José A. Fulton, Elizabeth A. Galbraith, Eric D. Gascuel, Didier Guiet, Jerome John, Jasmin G. Link, Jason S. Lotze, Heike K. Maury, Olivier Ortega-Cisneros, Kelly Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano Petrik, Colleen M. Pontavice, Hubert du Rault, Jonathan Richardson, Anthony J. Shannon, Lynne J. Shin, Yunne-Jai Steenbeek, Jeroen Stock, Charles A. Blanchard, Julia L. Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems |
| author_sort |
Tittensor, Derek P. |
| title |
Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems |
| title_short |
Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems |
| title_full |
Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems |
| title_fullStr |
Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems |
| title_sort |
next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems |
| publisher |
Nature Publishing Group |
| publishDate |
2021-11 |
| url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10261/253090 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000038 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000893 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001665 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100011033 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000879 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000923 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000780 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000192 |
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dig-icm-es-10261-2530902021-11-08T12:04:44Z Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems Tittensor, Derek P. Novaglio, Camilla Harrison, Cheryl Heneghan, Ryan F. Barrier, Nicolas Bianchi, Daniele Bopp, Laurent Bryndum‐Buchholz, Andrea Britten, Gregory L. Büchner, Matthias Cheung, William W.L. Christensen, Villy Coll, Marta Dunne, John P. Eddy, Tyler D. Everett, Jason D. Fernandes-Salvador, José A. Fulton, Elizabeth A. Galbraith, Eric D. Gascuel, Didier Guiet, Jerome John, Jasmin G. Link, Jason S. Lotze, Heike K. Maury, Olivier Ortega-Cisneros, Kelly Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano Petrik, Colleen M. Pontavice, Hubert du Rault, Jonathan Richardson, Anthony J. Shannon, Lynne J. Shin, Yunne-Jai Steenbeek, Jeroen Stock, Charles A. Blanchard, Julia L. Jarislowsky Foundation Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada Australian Research Council European Commission Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (España) UK Research and Innovation Global Challenges Research Fund One Ocean Hub Simons Foundation Belmont Forum BiodivERsA Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España) Ocean Frontier Institute Agence Nationale de la Recherche (France) California Ocean Protection Council Alfred P. Sloan Foundation Extreme Science and Engineering Discovery Environment (US) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US) 22 pages, 5 figures, 1 table, supplementary information https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01173-9.-- Data availabilityAll standardized forcing variables from the ESMs are available at https://doi.org/10.48364/ISIMIP.575744.1; all outputs from the MEMs are available via ISIMIP (https://www.isimip.org/gettingstarted/data-access/).-- Code availabilityAll code used to analyse simulations is available at https://github.com/Fish-MIP/CMIP5vsCMIP6 Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning This work was supported by the Jarislowsky Foundation (D.P.T.), the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada Discovery Grant programme (D.P.T., H.K.L., T.D.E., W.W.L.C., J.P.-A. and V.C.); Australian Research Council (ARC) Discovery Projects DP170104240 (J.L.B. and C.N.), DP190102293 (J.L.B., C.N., A.J.R., J.D.E. and D.P.T.) and DP150102656 (J.D.E.); the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreements 817578 (TRIATLAS) (M.C., J.S., L.S., O.M., L.B., Y.-J.S., N.B. and J.R.), 869300 (FutureMARES) (J.A.F.-S.,Y.-J.S. and M.C.) and 862428 (MISSION ATLANTIC (J.A.F.-S, Y.-J.S. and M.C.); the Spanish National Project ProOceans (PID2020-118097RB-I00) (M.C. and J.S.); the Open Philanthropy Project (C.S.H.); the United Kingdom Research and Innovation (UKRI) Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) One Ocean Hub (NE/S008950/1) (K.O.-C. and L.S.); the Simons Foundation (nos. 54993, 645921) (G.L.B.); the Belmont Forum and BiodivERsA under the BiodivScen ERA-Net COFUND programme (SOMBEE project, ANR-18-EBI4-0003-01) (Y.-J.S. and N.B.); the MEOPAR Postdoctoral Fellowship Award 2020–2021 and the Ocean Frontier Institute (Module G) (A.B.-B.); the French ANR project CIGOEF (grant ANR-17-CE32-0008-01) (O.M., L.B. and J.R.); the California Ocean Protection Council Grant C0100400, the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and the Extreme Science and Engineering Discovery Environment (XSEDE) allocation TG-OCE170017 (D.B. and J.G.); the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Association (NA20OAR4310441, NA20OAR4310442) (C.M.P.). M.C. acknowledges the Severo Ochoa Centre of Excellence accreditation (CEX2019-000928-S) to the Institute of Marine Science (ICM-CSIC) Peer reviewed 2021-10-27T08:22:34Z 2021-10-27T08:22:34Z 2021-11 artículo http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 Nature Climate Change 11: 973-981 (2021) 1758-678X CEX2019-000928-S http://hdl.handle.net/10261/253090 10.1038/s41558-021-01173-9 1758-6798 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000038 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000893 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001665 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100011033 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000879 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000923 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000780 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000192 en #PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE# #PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE# #PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE# #PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE# info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/817578 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/869300 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/862428 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2017-2020/PID2020-118097RB-I00 Publisher's version https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01173-9 Sí open Nature Publishing Group |