Deterministic Factors Overwhelm Stochastic Environmental Fluctuations as Drivers of Jellyfish Outbreaks
16 pages, 4 figures, 1 table, supporting Information http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0141060
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dig-icm-es-10261-1285872021-12-28T16:11:39Z Deterministic Factors Overwhelm Stochastic Environmental Fluctuations as Drivers of Jellyfish Outbreaks Benedetti-Cecchi, Lisandro Canepa, Antonio Fuentes, Veronica Tamburello, Laura Purcell, Jennifer E. Piraino, Stefano Roberts, Jason Boero, Ferdinando Halpin, Pat European Commission Comisión Nacional de Investigación Científica y Tecnológica (Chile) 16 pages, 4 figures, 1 table, supporting Information http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0141060 Jellyfish outbreaks are increasingly viewed as a deterministic response to escalating levels of environmental degradation and climate extremes. However, a comprehensive understanding of the influence of deterministic drivers and stochastic environmental variations favouring population renewal processes has remained elusive. This study quantifies the deterministic and stochastic components of environmental change that lead to outbreaks of the jellyfish Pelagia noctiluca in the Mediterranen Sea. Using data of jellyfish abundance collected at 241 sites along the Catalan coast from 2007 to 2010 we: (1) tested hypotheses about the influence of time-varying and spatial predictors of jellyfish outbreaks; (2) evaluated the relative importance of stochastic vs. deterministic forcing of outbreaks through the environmental bootstrap method; and (3) quantified return times of extreme events. Outbreaks were common in May and June and less likely in other summer months, which resulted in a negative relationship between outbreaks and SST. Cross- and along-shore advection by geostrophic flow were important concentrating forces of jellyfish, but most outbreaks occurred in the proximity of two canyons in the northern part of the study area. This result supported the recent hypothesis that canyons can funnel P. noctiluca blooms towards shore during upwelling. This can be a general, yet unappreciated mechanism leading to outbreaks of holoplanktonic jellyfish species. The environmental bootstrap indicated that stochastic environmental fluctuations have negligible effects on return times of outbreaks. Our analysis emphasized the importance of deterministic processes leading to jellyfish outbreaks compared to the stochastic component of environmental variation. A better understanding of how environmental drivers affect demographic and population processes in jellyfish species will increase the ability to anticipate jellyfish outbreaks in the future The authors gratefully acknowledge financial support by the European Community Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007–2013) for the project VECTORS (grant agreement no. 266445) (URL: http://cordis.europa.eu/fp7/home_en.html). AC was supported by a doctoral fellowship from the Chilean National Commission for Scientific and Technological Research (CONICYT – PFCHA/Doctorado al Extranjero 4a Convocatoria, 72120016). Peer Reviewed 2015-10-20 2016-02-03T07:50:24Z artículo http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0141060 issn: 1932-6203 e-issn: 1932-6203 PLoS ONE 10(10): e0141060 (2015) http://hdl.handle.net/10261/128587 10.1371/journal.pone.0141060 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000780 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002848 26485278 #PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE# info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/266445 Publisher's version http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0141060 Sí open Public Library of Science |
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16 pages, 4 figures, 1 table, supporting Information http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0141060 |
| author2 |
European Commission |
| author_facet |
European Commission Benedetti-Cecchi, Lisandro Canepa, Antonio Fuentes, Veronica Tamburello, Laura Purcell, Jennifer E. Piraino, Stefano Roberts, Jason Boero, Ferdinando Halpin, Pat |
| format |
artículo |
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Benedetti-Cecchi, Lisandro Canepa, Antonio Fuentes, Veronica Tamburello, Laura Purcell, Jennifer E. Piraino, Stefano Roberts, Jason Boero, Ferdinando Halpin, Pat |
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Benedetti-Cecchi, Lisandro Canepa, Antonio Fuentes, Veronica Tamburello, Laura Purcell, Jennifer E. Piraino, Stefano Roberts, Jason Boero, Ferdinando Halpin, Pat Deterministic Factors Overwhelm Stochastic Environmental Fluctuations as Drivers of Jellyfish Outbreaks |
| author_sort |
Benedetti-Cecchi, Lisandro |
| title |
Deterministic Factors Overwhelm Stochastic Environmental Fluctuations as Drivers of Jellyfish Outbreaks |
| title_short |
Deterministic Factors Overwhelm Stochastic Environmental Fluctuations as Drivers of Jellyfish Outbreaks |
| title_full |
Deterministic Factors Overwhelm Stochastic Environmental Fluctuations as Drivers of Jellyfish Outbreaks |
| title_fullStr |
Deterministic Factors Overwhelm Stochastic Environmental Fluctuations as Drivers of Jellyfish Outbreaks |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Deterministic Factors Overwhelm Stochastic Environmental Fluctuations as Drivers of Jellyfish Outbreaks |
| title_sort |
deterministic factors overwhelm stochastic environmental fluctuations as drivers of jellyfish outbreaks |
| publisher |
Public Library of Science |
| url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10261/128587 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000780 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002848 |
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