The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions
Increasing the accuracy of crop productivity estimates is a key element in planning adaptation strategies to ensure global food security under climate change. Process-based crop models are effective means to project climate impact on crop yield, but have large uncertainty in yield simulations. Here, we show that variations in the mathematical functions currently used to simulate temperature responses of physiological processes in 29 wheat models account for >50% of uncertainty in simulated grain yields for mean growing season temperatures from 14 °C to 33 °C. We derived a set of new temperature response functions that when substituted in four wheat models reduced the error in grain yield simulations across seven global sites with different temperature regimes by 19% to 50% (42% average). We anticipate the improved temperature responses to be a key step to improve modelling of crops under rising temperature and climate change, leading to higher skill of crop yield projections.
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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Other Authors: | |
Format: | artículo biblioteca |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Springer Nature
2017-07-17
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10261/166954 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002338 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100005908 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001656 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000980 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100004913 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100007904 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100005825 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004543 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002367 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000943 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000780 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100006488 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001809 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000199 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100011099 |
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http://hdl.handle.net/10261/166954http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002338
http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100005908
http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001656
http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000980
http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100004913
http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100007904
http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100005825
http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004543
http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002367
http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000943
http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000780
http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100006488
http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001809
http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000199
http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100011099