Elasticity and substitutability of food demand and emerging disease risk on livestock farms
Disease emergence in livestock is a product of environment, epidemiology and economic forces. The environmental factors contributing to novel pathogen emergence in humans have been studied extensively, but the two-way relationship between farm microeconomics and outbreak risk has received comparably little attention. We introduce a game-theoretic model where farmers produce and sell two goods, one of which (e.g. pigs, poultry) is susceptible to infection by a pathogen. We model market and epidemiological effects at both the individual farm level and the community level. We find that in the case of low demand elasticity for livestock meat, the presence of an animal pathogen causing production losses can lead to a bistable system where two outcomes are possible: (i) successful disease control or (ii) maintained disease circulation, where farmers slaughter their animals at a low rate, face substantial production losses, but maintain large herds because of the appeal of high meat prices. Our observations point to the potentially critical effect of price elasticity of demand for livestock products on the success or failure of livestock disease control policies. We show the potential epidemiological benefits of (i) policies aimed at stabilizing livestock product prices, (ii) subsidies for alternative agricultural activities during epidemics, and (iii) diversifying agricultural production and sources of proteins available to consumers.
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dig-cirad-fr-6086652024-02-29T08:54:12Z http://agritrop.cirad.fr/608665/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/608665/ Elasticity and substitutability of food demand and emerging disease risk on livestock farms. Delabouglise Alexis, Fournié Guillaume, Peyre Marie-Isabelle, Antoine-Moussiaux Nicolas, Boni Maciej F.. 2023. Royal Society Open Science, 10 (3):221304, 15 p.https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.221304 <https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.221304> Elasticity and substitutability of food demand and emerging disease risk on livestock farms Delabouglise, Alexis Fournié, Guillaume Peyre, Marie-Isabelle Antoine-Moussiaux, Nicolas Boni, Maciej F. eng 2023 Royal Society Open Science L73 - Maladies des animaux L01 - Élevage - Considérations générales E10 - Économie et politique agricoles E70 - Commerce, commercialisation et distribution épidémiologie contrôle de maladies maladie des animaux transmission des maladies stabilisation des prix bétail modèle de simulation Élasticité analyse économique gestion du risque élasticité de la demande résistance aux maladies marketing élasticité des prix abattage d'animaux http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2615 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2327 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_426 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2329 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_28746 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4397 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24242 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_26777 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2469 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_37934 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_b85c38dd http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2328 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4620 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_26855 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7107 Disease emergence in livestock is a product of environment, epidemiology and economic forces. The environmental factors contributing to novel pathogen emergence in humans have been studied extensively, but the two-way relationship between farm microeconomics and outbreak risk has received comparably little attention. We introduce a game-theoretic model where farmers produce and sell two goods, one of which (e.g. pigs, poultry) is susceptible to infection by a pathogen. We model market and epidemiological effects at both the individual farm level and the community level. We find that in the case of low demand elasticity for livestock meat, the presence of an animal pathogen causing production losses can lead to a bistable system where two outcomes are possible: (i) successful disease control or (ii) maintained disease circulation, where farmers slaughter their animals at a low rate, face substantial production losses, but maintain large herds because of the appeal of high meat prices. Our observations point to the potentially critical effect of price elasticity of demand for livestock products on the success or failure of livestock disease control policies. We show the potential epidemiological benefits of (i) policies aimed at stabilizing livestock product prices, (ii) subsidies for alternative agricultural activities during epidemics, and (iii) diversifying agricultural production and sources of proteins available to consumers. article info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal Article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://agritrop.cirad.fr/608665/1/608665.pdf text cc_by info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.221304 10.1098/rsos.221304 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1098/rsos.221304 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/purl/https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.221304 info:eu-repo/semantics/dataset/purl/https://osf.io/ws3vu/ info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/DeSIRA/FOOD/2019/410-95//(EU) Support to Livestock Disease Surveillance Knowledge Integration/LIDISKI |
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L73 - Maladies des animaux L01 - Élevage - Considérations générales E10 - Économie et politique agricoles E70 - Commerce, commercialisation et distribution épidémiologie contrôle de maladies maladie des animaux transmission des maladies stabilisation des prix bétail modèle de simulation Élasticité analyse économique gestion du risque élasticité de la demande résistance aux maladies marketing élasticité des prix abattage d'animaux http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2615 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2327 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_426 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2329 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_28746 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4397 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24242 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_26777 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2469 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_37934 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_b85c38dd http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2328 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4620 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_26855 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7107 L73 - Maladies des animaux L01 - Élevage - Considérations générales E10 - Économie et politique agricoles E70 - Commerce, commercialisation et distribution épidémiologie contrôle de maladies maladie des animaux transmission des maladies stabilisation des prix bétail modèle de simulation Élasticité analyse économique gestion du risque élasticité de la demande résistance aux maladies marketing élasticité des prix abattage d'animaux http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2615 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2327 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_426 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2329 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_28746 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4397 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24242 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_26777 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2469 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_37934 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_b85c38dd http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2328 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4620 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_26855 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7107 |
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L73 - Maladies des animaux L01 - Élevage - Considérations générales E10 - Économie et politique agricoles E70 - Commerce, commercialisation et distribution épidémiologie contrôle de maladies maladie des animaux transmission des maladies stabilisation des prix bétail modèle de simulation Élasticité analyse économique gestion du risque élasticité de la demande résistance aux maladies marketing élasticité des prix abattage d'animaux http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2615 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2327 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_426 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2329 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_28746 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4397 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24242 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_26777 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2469 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_37934 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_b85c38dd http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2328 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4620 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_26855 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7107 L73 - Maladies des animaux L01 - Élevage - Considérations générales E10 - Économie et politique agricoles E70 - Commerce, commercialisation et distribution épidémiologie contrôle de maladies maladie des animaux transmission des maladies stabilisation des prix bétail modèle de simulation Élasticité analyse économique gestion du risque élasticité de la demande résistance aux maladies marketing élasticité des prix abattage d'animaux http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2615 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2327 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_426 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2329 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_28746 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4397 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24242 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_26777 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2469 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_37934 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_b85c38dd http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2328 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4620 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_26855 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7107 Delabouglise, Alexis Fournié, Guillaume Peyre, Marie-Isabelle Antoine-Moussiaux, Nicolas Boni, Maciej F. Elasticity and substitutability of food demand and emerging disease risk on livestock farms |
description |
Disease emergence in livestock is a product of environment, epidemiology and economic forces. The environmental factors contributing to novel pathogen emergence in humans have been studied extensively, but the two-way relationship between farm microeconomics and outbreak risk has received comparably little attention. We introduce a game-theoretic model where farmers produce and sell two goods, one of which (e.g. pigs, poultry) is susceptible to infection by a pathogen. We model market and epidemiological effects at both the individual farm level and the community level. We find that in the case of low demand elasticity for livestock meat, the presence of an animal pathogen causing production losses can lead to a bistable system where two outcomes are possible: (i) successful disease control or (ii) maintained disease circulation, where farmers slaughter their animals at a low rate, face substantial production losses, but maintain large herds because of the appeal of high meat prices. Our observations point to the potentially critical effect of price elasticity of demand for livestock products on the success or failure of livestock disease control policies. We show the potential epidemiological benefits of (i) policies aimed at stabilizing livestock product prices, (ii) subsidies for alternative agricultural activities during epidemics, and (iii) diversifying agricultural production and sources of proteins available to consumers. |
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article |
topic_facet |
L73 - Maladies des animaux L01 - Élevage - Considérations générales E10 - Économie et politique agricoles E70 - Commerce, commercialisation et distribution épidémiologie contrôle de maladies maladie des animaux transmission des maladies stabilisation des prix bétail modèle de simulation Élasticité analyse économique gestion du risque élasticité de la demande résistance aux maladies marketing élasticité des prix abattage d'animaux http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2615 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2327 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_426 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2329 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_28746 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4397 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24242 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_26777 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2469 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_37934 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_b85c38dd http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2328 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4620 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_26855 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7107 |
author |
Delabouglise, Alexis Fournié, Guillaume Peyre, Marie-Isabelle Antoine-Moussiaux, Nicolas Boni, Maciej F. |
author_facet |
Delabouglise, Alexis Fournié, Guillaume Peyre, Marie-Isabelle Antoine-Moussiaux, Nicolas Boni, Maciej F. |
author_sort |
Delabouglise, Alexis |
title |
Elasticity and substitutability of food demand and emerging disease risk on livestock farms |
title_short |
Elasticity and substitutability of food demand and emerging disease risk on livestock farms |
title_full |
Elasticity and substitutability of food demand and emerging disease risk on livestock farms |
title_fullStr |
Elasticity and substitutability of food demand and emerging disease risk on livestock farms |
title_full_unstemmed |
Elasticity and substitutability of food demand and emerging disease risk on livestock farms |
title_sort |
elasticity and substitutability of food demand and emerging disease risk on livestock farms |
url |
http://agritrop.cirad.fr/608665/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/608665/1/608665.pdf |
work_keys_str_mv |
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1792500811582930944 |