Transmission dynamics and vaccination strategies for Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus in Afghanistan: A modelling study
Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHF) is an understudied emerging pathogen and the cause of increasingly frequent outbreaks of haemorrhagic fever in humans in sev- eral parts of the world. Here we bring together an important body of work in different aspects of the ecology and epidemiology of CCHF to shed light on its transmission dynamics into humans and the role of environmental drivers. These results show that over the years an endemic pattern of CCHFV transmission has been established within livestock, and the frequency of human cases mirrors the seasonal pattern of livestock transmission. Our analysis further suggests that an important fraction of cases in humans might be subclinical, and the volume of transmission into humans might be much larger than previously thought. We examine the potential impact of vaccination, which suggest that not only human vaccination could be more impactful than animal vaccination, but also that targeted strategies in human high risk groups could be very effective. Our results raise important insights for future vaccine development and important questions on the optimal conditions for conducting Phase III vaccine trials in humans.
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dig-cirad-fr-6070852024-01-29T19:04:14Z http://agritrop.cirad.fr/607085/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/607085/ Transmission dynamics and vaccination strategies for Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus in Afghanistan: A modelling study. Vesga Juan F., Clark Madeleine H.A., Ayazi Edris, Apolloni Andrea, Leslie Toby, Edmunds John W., Métras Raphaëlle. 2022. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 16 (5):e0010454, 17 p.https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010454 <https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010454> Transmission dynamics and vaccination strategies for Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus in Afghanistan: A modelling study Vesga, Juan F. Clark, Madeleine H.A. Ayazi, Edris Apolloni, Andrea Leslie, Toby Edmunds, John W. Métras, Raphaëlle eng 2022 PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases fièvre hémorragique de Crimée-Congo transmission des maladies épidémiologie bétail vaccination surveillance épidémiologique modèle de simulation modèle mathématique genre humain distribution géographique vaccin vecteur de maladie maladie de l'homme modélisation http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_ac826b92 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2329 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2615 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4397 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_15123 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16411 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24242 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24199 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4586 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5083 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8130 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8164 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_29198 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_230ab86c France http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3081 Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHF) is an understudied emerging pathogen and the cause of increasingly frequent outbreaks of haemorrhagic fever in humans in sev- eral parts of the world. Here we bring together an important body of work in different aspects of the ecology and epidemiology of CCHF to shed light on its transmission dynamics into humans and the role of environmental drivers. These results show that over the years an endemic pattern of CCHFV transmission has been established within livestock, and the frequency of human cases mirrors the seasonal pattern of livestock transmission. Our analysis further suggests that an important fraction of cases in humans might be subclinical, and the volume of transmission into humans might be much larger than previously thought. We examine the potential impact of vaccination, which suggest that not only human vaccination could be more impactful than animal vaccination, but also that targeted strategies in human high risk groups could be very effective. Our results raise important insights for future vaccine development and important questions on the optimal conditions for conducting Phase III vaccine trials in humans. article info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal Article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://agritrop.cirad.fr/607085/1/607085.pdf text cc_by info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010454 10.1371/journal.pntd.0010454 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010454 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/purl/https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010454 info:eu-repo/semantics/dataset/purl/https://figshare.com/articles/figure/Model_structure_for_the_transmission_of_CCHFV_amongst_livestock_/19832147 |
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fièvre hémorragique de Crimée-Congo transmission des maladies épidémiologie bétail vaccination surveillance épidémiologique modèle de simulation modèle mathématique genre humain distribution géographique vaccin vecteur de maladie maladie de l'homme modélisation http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_ac826b92 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2329 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2615 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4397 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_15123 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16411 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24242 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24199 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4586 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5083 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8130 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8164 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_29198 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_230ab86c http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3081 fièvre hémorragique de Crimée-Congo transmission des maladies épidémiologie bétail vaccination surveillance épidémiologique modèle de simulation modèle mathématique genre humain distribution géographique vaccin vecteur de maladie maladie de l'homme modélisation http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_ac826b92 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2329 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2615 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4397 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_15123 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16411 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24242 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24199 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4586 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5083 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8130 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8164 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_29198 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_230ab86c http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3081 |
spellingShingle |
fièvre hémorragique de Crimée-Congo transmission des maladies épidémiologie bétail vaccination surveillance épidémiologique modèle de simulation modèle mathématique genre humain distribution géographique vaccin vecteur de maladie maladie de l'homme modélisation http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_ac826b92 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2329 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2615 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4397 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_15123 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16411 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24242 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24199 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4586 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5083 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8130 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8164 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_29198 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_230ab86c http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3081 fièvre hémorragique de Crimée-Congo transmission des maladies épidémiologie bétail vaccination surveillance épidémiologique modèle de simulation modèle mathématique genre humain distribution géographique vaccin vecteur de maladie maladie de l'homme modélisation http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_ac826b92 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2329 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2615 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4397 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_15123 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16411 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24242 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24199 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4586 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5083 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8130 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8164 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_29198 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_230ab86c http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3081 Vesga, Juan F. Clark, Madeleine H.A. Ayazi, Edris Apolloni, Andrea Leslie, Toby Edmunds, John W. Métras, Raphaëlle Transmission dynamics and vaccination strategies for Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus in Afghanistan: A modelling study |
description |
Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHF) is an understudied emerging pathogen and the cause of increasingly frequent outbreaks of haemorrhagic fever in humans in sev- eral parts of the world. Here we bring together an important body of work in different aspects of the ecology and epidemiology of CCHF to shed light on its transmission dynamics into humans and the role of environmental drivers. These results show that over the years an endemic pattern of CCHFV transmission has been established within livestock, and the frequency of human cases mirrors the seasonal pattern of livestock transmission. Our analysis further suggests that an important fraction of cases in humans might be subclinical, and the volume of transmission into humans might be much larger than previously thought. We examine the potential impact of vaccination, which suggest that not only human vaccination could be more impactful than animal vaccination, but also that targeted strategies in human high risk groups could be very effective. Our results raise important insights for future vaccine development and important questions on the optimal conditions for conducting Phase III vaccine trials in humans. |
format |
article |
topic_facet |
fièvre hémorragique de Crimée-Congo transmission des maladies épidémiologie bétail vaccination surveillance épidémiologique modèle de simulation modèle mathématique genre humain distribution géographique vaccin vecteur de maladie maladie de l'homme modélisation http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_ac826b92 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2329 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2615 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4397 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_15123 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16411 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24242 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24199 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4586 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5083 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8130 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8164 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_29198 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_230ab86c http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3081 |
author |
Vesga, Juan F. Clark, Madeleine H.A. Ayazi, Edris Apolloni, Andrea Leslie, Toby Edmunds, John W. Métras, Raphaëlle |
author_facet |
Vesga, Juan F. Clark, Madeleine H.A. Ayazi, Edris Apolloni, Andrea Leslie, Toby Edmunds, John W. Métras, Raphaëlle |
author_sort |
Vesga, Juan F. |
title |
Transmission dynamics and vaccination strategies for Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus in Afghanistan: A modelling study |
title_short |
Transmission dynamics and vaccination strategies for Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus in Afghanistan: A modelling study |
title_full |
Transmission dynamics and vaccination strategies for Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus in Afghanistan: A modelling study |
title_fullStr |
Transmission dynamics and vaccination strategies for Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus in Afghanistan: A modelling study |
title_full_unstemmed |
Transmission dynamics and vaccination strategies for Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus in Afghanistan: A modelling study |
title_sort |
transmission dynamics and vaccination strategies for crimean-congo haemorrhagic fever virus in afghanistan: a modelling study |
url |
http://agritrop.cirad.fr/607085/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/607085/1/607085.pdf |
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