Modelling the potential human exposure to Japanese Encephalitis Virus (JEV) in case of introduction into Reunion Island
Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is a vector-borne zoonotic virus and the leading cause of human acute encephalitis in Asia. Continuous human and commercial exchanges between Southeast Asia where JE is endemic and Reunion Island increase the risk of introducing JEV on the island, where putative vectors of JEV such as Culex quinquefasciatus and amplifying hosts such as pigs are present. Each of the 255 Reunionese pig farms was assumed to harbor a Cx. quinquefasciatus population and, together with the competent hosts: pigs and poultry and noncompetent hosts: humans, dogs, and cattle, located within a radius of 1 km, formed an epidemiological unit. We used a deterministic compartmental model to investigate whether these epidemiological units could be invaded by JEV in the event of an introduction. Since the vector population size changes seasonally, we computed the basic reproduction number (R0) using vector population sizes ranging from 100 to 100,000 vectors for each of the 255 epidemiological units. The size of the potentially exposed human population was calculated in the case where the virus would be introduced in a single epidemiological unit and in the extreme case where the virus would have spread over the whole island. For a vector population of 1,000 vectors per unit, 2 out of 255 units had an R0 ≥ 1. With 50,000 vectors per unit, more than 75% (193/255) of the units had an estimated R0 ≥ 1, representing a median of approximately 2,500 potentially exposed people if JEV was introduced in a single unit, and about 140,000 potentially exposed people if JEV had expanded throughout the island. The unit located a few kilometers from the large port area of Reunion Island had an estimated R0 ≥ 1 with at least 10,000 vectors, making it a potential gateway to JEV given a virus introduction of infected vectors.
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Subjects: | L73 - Maladies des animaux, S50 - Santé humaine, U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques, virus encéphalite japonaise, modélisation, surveillance épidémiologique, épidémiologie, transmission des maladies, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16437, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_230ab86c, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16411, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2615, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2329, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6543, |
Online Access: | http://agritrop.cirad.fr/605128/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/605128/1/Publi%20Modelling%20the%20Potential%20HumanExposure%20to%20JEV%20in%20case%20of%20introduction_TED%202023.pdf |
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dig-cirad-fr-6051282024-01-29T04:37:19Z http://agritrop.cirad.fr/605128/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/605128/ Modelling the potential human exposure to Japanese Encephalitis Virus (JEV) in case of introduction into Reunion Island. Ladreyt Héléna, Garros Claire, Habchi-Hanriot Nausicaa, Dupraz Marlene, Baldet Thierry, Chevalier Véronique, Durand Benoit. 2023. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases, 2023:3118640, 11 p.https://doi.org/10.1155/2023/3118640 <https://doi.org/10.1155/2023/3118640> Modelling the potential human exposure to Japanese Encephalitis Virus (JEV) in case of introduction into Reunion Island Ladreyt, Héléna Garros, Claire Habchi-Hanriot, Nausicaa Dupraz, Marlene Baldet, Thierry Chevalier, Véronique Durand, Benoit eng 2023 Transboundary and Emerging Diseases L73 - Maladies des animaux S50 - Santé humaine U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques virus encéphalite japonaise modélisation surveillance épidémiologique épidémiologie transmission des maladies http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16437 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_230ab86c http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16411 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2615 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2329 La Réunion http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6543 Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is a vector-borne zoonotic virus and the leading cause of human acute encephalitis in Asia. Continuous human and commercial exchanges between Southeast Asia where JE is endemic and Reunion Island increase the risk of introducing JEV on the island, where putative vectors of JEV such as Culex quinquefasciatus and amplifying hosts such as pigs are present. Each of the 255 Reunionese pig farms was assumed to harbor a Cx. quinquefasciatus population and, together with the competent hosts: pigs and poultry and noncompetent hosts: humans, dogs, and cattle, located within a radius of 1 km, formed an epidemiological unit. We used a deterministic compartmental model to investigate whether these epidemiological units could be invaded by JEV in the event of an introduction. Since the vector population size changes seasonally, we computed the basic reproduction number (R0) using vector population sizes ranging from 100 to 100,000 vectors for each of the 255 epidemiological units. The size of the potentially exposed human population was calculated in the case where the virus would be introduced in a single epidemiological unit and in the extreme case where the virus would have spread over the whole island. For a vector population of 1,000 vectors per unit, 2 out of 255 units had an R0 ≥ 1. With 50,000 vectors per unit, more than 75% (193/255) of the units had an estimated R0 ≥ 1, representing a median of approximately 2,500 potentially exposed people if JEV was introduced in a single unit, and about 140,000 potentially exposed people if JEV had expanded throughout the island. The unit located a few kilometers from the large port area of Reunion Island had an estimated R0 ≥ 1 with at least 10,000 vectors, making it a potential gateway to JEV given a virus introduction of infected vectors. article info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal Article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://agritrop.cirad.fr/605128/1/Publi%20Modelling%20the%20Potential%20HumanExposure%20to%20JEV%20in%20case%20of%20introduction_TED%202023.pdf text cc_by info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ https://doi.org/10.1155/2023/3118640 10.1155/2023/3118640 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1155/2023/3118640 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/purl/https://doi.org/10.1155/2023/3118640 |
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L73 - Maladies des animaux S50 - Santé humaine U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques virus encéphalite japonaise modélisation surveillance épidémiologique épidémiologie transmission des maladies http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16437 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_230ab86c http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16411 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2615 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2329 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6543 L73 - Maladies des animaux S50 - Santé humaine U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques virus encéphalite japonaise modélisation surveillance épidémiologique épidémiologie transmission des maladies http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16437 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_230ab86c http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16411 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2615 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2329 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6543 |
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L73 - Maladies des animaux S50 - Santé humaine U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques virus encéphalite japonaise modélisation surveillance épidémiologique épidémiologie transmission des maladies http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16437 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_230ab86c http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16411 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2615 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2329 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6543 L73 - Maladies des animaux S50 - Santé humaine U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques virus encéphalite japonaise modélisation surveillance épidémiologique épidémiologie transmission des maladies http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16437 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_230ab86c http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16411 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2615 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2329 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6543 Ladreyt, Héléna Garros, Claire Habchi-Hanriot, Nausicaa Dupraz, Marlene Baldet, Thierry Chevalier, Véronique Durand, Benoit Modelling the potential human exposure to Japanese Encephalitis Virus (JEV) in case of introduction into Reunion Island |
description |
Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is a vector-borne zoonotic virus and the leading cause of human acute encephalitis in Asia. Continuous human and commercial exchanges between Southeast Asia where JE is endemic and Reunion Island increase the risk of introducing JEV on the island, where putative vectors of JEV such as Culex quinquefasciatus and amplifying hosts such as pigs are present. Each of the 255 Reunionese pig farms was assumed to harbor a Cx. quinquefasciatus population and, together with the competent hosts: pigs and poultry and noncompetent hosts: humans, dogs, and cattle, located within a radius of 1 km, formed an epidemiological unit. We used a deterministic compartmental model to investigate whether these epidemiological units could be invaded by JEV in the event of an introduction. Since the vector population size changes seasonally, we computed the basic reproduction number (R0) using vector population sizes ranging from 100 to 100,000 vectors for each of the 255 epidemiological units. The size of the potentially exposed human population was calculated in the case where the virus would be introduced in a single epidemiological unit and in the extreme case where the virus would have spread over the whole island. For a vector population of 1,000 vectors per unit, 2 out of 255 units had an R0 ≥ 1. With 50,000 vectors per unit, more than 75% (193/255) of the units had an estimated R0 ≥ 1, representing a median of approximately 2,500 potentially exposed people if JEV was introduced in a single unit, and about 140,000 potentially exposed people if JEV had expanded throughout the island. The unit located a few kilometers from the large port area of Reunion Island had an estimated R0 ≥ 1 with at least 10,000 vectors, making it a potential gateway to JEV given a virus introduction of infected vectors. |
format |
article |
topic_facet |
L73 - Maladies des animaux S50 - Santé humaine U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques virus encéphalite japonaise modélisation surveillance épidémiologique épidémiologie transmission des maladies http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16437 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_230ab86c http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16411 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2615 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2329 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6543 |
author |
Ladreyt, Héléna Garros, Claire Habchi-Hanriot, Nausicaa Dupraz, Marlene Baldet, Thierry Chevalier, Véronique Durand, Benoit |
author_facet |
Ladreyt, Héléna Garros, Claire Habchi-Hanriot, Nausicaa Dupraz, Marlene Baldet, Thierry Chevalier, Véronique Durand, Benoit |
author_sort |
Ladreyt, Héléna |
title |
Modelling the potential human exposure to Japanese Encephalitis Virus (JEV) in case of introduction into Reunion Island |
title_short |
Modelling the potential human exposure to Japanese Encephalitis Virus (JEV) in case of introduction into Reunion Island |
title_full |
Modelling the potential human exposure to Japanese Encephalitis Virus (JEV) in case of introduction into Reunion Island |
title_fullStr |
Modelling the potential human exposure to Japanese Encephalitis Virus (JEV) in case of introduction into Reunion Island |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modelling the potential human exposure to Japanese Encephalitis Virus (JEV) in case of introduction into Reunion Island |
title_sort |
modelling the potential human exposure to japanese encephalitis virus (jev) in case of introduction into reunion island |
url |
http://agritrop.cirad.fr/605128/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/605128/1/Publi%20Modelling%20the%20Potential%20HumanExposure%20to%20JEV%20in%20case%20of%20introduction_TED%202023.pdf |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT ladreythelena modellingthepotentialhumanexposuretojapaneseencephalitisvirusjevincaseofintroductionintoreunionisland AT garrosclaire modellingthepotentialhumanexposuretojapaneseencephalitisvirusjevincaseofintroductionintoreunionisland AT habchihanriotnausicaa modellingthepotentialhumanexposuretojapaneseencephalitisvirusjevincaseofintroductionintoreunionisland AT duprazmarlene modellingthepotentialhumanexposuretojapaneseencephalitisvirusjevincaseofintroductionintoreunionisland AT baldetthierry modellingthepotentialhumanexposuretojapaneseencephalitisvirusjevincaseofintroductionintoreunionisland AT chevalierveronique modellingthepotentialhumanexposuretojapaneseencephalitisvirusjevincaseofintroductionintoreunionisland AT durandbenoit modellingthepotentialhumanexposuretojapaneseencephalitisvirusjevincaseofintroductionintoreunionisland |
_version_ |
1792500568272404480 |