GOBLIN version 1.0: A land balance model to identify national agriculture and land use pathways to climate neutrality via backcasting
The Paris Agreement commits 197 countries to achieve climate stabilisation at a global average surface temperature less than 2 ∘C above pre-industrial times using nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to demonstrate progress. Numerous industrialised economies have targets to achieve territorial climate neutrality by 2050, primarily in the form of “net zero” greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, particular uncertainty remains over the role of countries' agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) sectors for reasons including the potential trade-offs between GHG mitigation and food security, a non-zero emission target for methane as a short-lived GHG, and the requirement for AFOLU to act as a net sink to offset residual emissions from other sectors. These issues are represented at a coarse level in integrated assessment models (IAMs) that indicate the role of AFOLU in global pathways towards climate stabilisation. However, there is an urgent need to determine appropriate AFOLU management strategies at a national level within NDCs. Here, we present a new model designed to evaluate detailed AFOLU scenarios at national scale using the example of Ireland, where approximately 40 % of national GHG emissions originate from AFOLU. GOBLIN (General Overview for a Backcasting approach of Livestock INtensification) is designed to run randomised scenarios of agricultural activities and land use combinations within biophysical constraints (e.g. available land area, livestock productivities, fertiliser-driven grass yields, and forest growth rates). Using AFOLU emission factors from national GHG inventory reporting, GOBLIN calculates annual GHG emissions out to the selected target year for each scenario (2050 in this case). The long-term dynamics of forestry are represented up to 2120 so that scenarios can also be evaluated against the Paris Agreement commitment to achieve a balance between emissions and removals over the second half of the 21st century. Filtering randomised scenarios according to compliance with specific biophysical definitions (GHG time series) of climate neutrality will provide scientific boundaries for appropriate long-term actions within NDCs. We outline the rationale and methodology behind the development of GOBLIN, with an emphasis on biophysical linkages across food production, GHG emissions, and carbon sinks at a national level. We then demonstrate how GOBLIN can be applied to evaluate different scenarios in relation to a few possible simple definitions of “climate neutrality”, discussing opportunities and limitations.
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Format: | article biblioteca |
Language: | eng |
Subjects: | E11 - Économie et politique foncières, P40 - Météorologie et climatologie, changement dans l'usage des terres, utilisation des terres, réduction des émissions, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_fac4b794, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4182, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_331597, |
Online Access: | http://agritrop.cirad.fr/604014/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/604014/1/Duffy2022.pdf |
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E11 - Économie et politique foncières P40 - Météorologie et climatologie changement dans l'usage des terres utilisation des terres réduction des émissions http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_fac4b794 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4182 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_331597 E11 - Économie et politique foncières P40 - Météorologie et climatologie changement dans l'usage des terres utilisation des terres réduction des émissions http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_fac4b794 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4182 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_331597 |
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E11 - Économie et politique foncières P40 - Météorologie et climatologie changement dans l'usage des terres utilisation des terres réduction des émissions http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_fac4b794 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4182 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_331597 E11 - Économie et politique foncières P40 - Météorologie et climatologie changement dans l'usage des terres utilisation des terres réduction des émissions http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_fac4b794 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4182 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_331597 Duffy, Colm Prudhomme, Rémi Duffy, Brian Gibbons, James O'Donoghue, Cathal Ryan, Mary Styles, David GOBLIN version 1.0: A land balance model to identify national agriculture and land use pathways to climate neutrality via backcasting |
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The Paris Agreement commits 197 countries to achieve climate stabilisation at a global average surface temperature less than 2 ∘C above pre-industrial times using nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to demonstrate progress. Numerous industrialised economies have targets to achieve territorial climate neutrality by 2050, primarily in the form of “net zero” greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, particular uncertainty remains over the role of countries' agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) sectors for reasons including the potential trade-offs between GHG mitigation and food security, a non-zero emission target for methane as a short-lived GHG, and the requirement for AFOLU to act as a net sink to offset residual emissions from other sectors. These issues are represented at a coarse level in integrated assessment models (IAMs) that indicate the role of AFOLU in global pathways towards climate stabilisation. However, there is an urgent need to determine appropriate AFOLU management strategies at a national level within NDCs. Here, we present a new model designed to evaluate detailed AFOLU scenarios at national scale using the example of Ireland, where approximately 40 % of national GHG emissions originate from AFOLU. GOBLIN (General Overview for a Backcasting approach of Livestock INtensification) is designed to run randomised scenarios of agricultural activities and land use combinations within biophysical constraints (e.g. available land area, livestock productivities, fertiliser-driven grass yields, and forest growth rates). Using AFOLU emission factors from national GHG inventory reporting, GOBLIN calculates annual GHG emissions out to the selected target year for each scenario (2050 in this case). The long-term dynamics of forestry are represented up to 2120 so that scenarios can also be evaluated against the Paris Agreement commitment to achieve a balance between emissions and removals over the second half of the 21st century. Filtering randomised scenarios according to compliance with specific biophysical definitions (GHG time series) of climate neutrality will provide scientific boundaries for appropriate long-term actions within NDCs. We outline the rationale and methodology behind the development of GOBLIN, with an emphasis on biophysical linkages across food production, GHG emissions, and carbon sinks at a national level. We then demonstrate how GOBLIN can be applied to evaluate different scenarios in relation to a few possible simple definitions of “climate neutrality”, discussing opportunities and limitations. |
format |
article |
topic_facet |
E11 - Économie et politique foncières P40 - Météorologie et climatologie changement dans l'usage des terres utilisation des terres réduction des émissions http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_fac4b794 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4182 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_331597 |
author |
Duffy, Colm Prudhomme, Rémi Duffy, Brian Gibbons, James O'Donoghue, Cathal Ryan, Mary Styles, David |
author_facet |
Duffy, Colm Prudhomme, Rémi Duffy, Brian Gibbons, James O'Donoghue, Cathal Ryan, Mary Styles, David |
author_sort |
Duffy, Colm |
title |
GOBLIN version 1.0: A land balance model to identify national agriculture and land use pathways to climate neutrality via backcasting |
title_short |
GOBLIN version 1.0: A land balance model to identify national agriculture and land use pathways to climate neutrality via backcasting |
title_full |
GOBLIN version 1.0: A land balance model to identify national agriculture and land use pathways to climate neutrality via backcasting |
title_fullStr |
GOBLIN version 1.0: A land balance model to identify national agriculture and land use pathways to climate neutrality via backcasting |
title_full_unstemmed |
GOBLIN version 1.0: A land balance model to identify national agriculture and land use pathways to climate neutrality via backcasting |
title_sort |
goblin version 1.0: a land balance model to identify national agriculture and land use pathways to climate neutrality via backcasting |
url |
http://agritrop.cirad.fr/604014/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/604014/1/Duffy2022.pdf |
work_keys_str_mv |
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dig-cirad-fr-6040142024-01-29T19:01:18Z http://agritrop.cirad.fr/604014/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/604014/ GOBLIN version 1.0: A land balance model to identify national agriculture and land use pathways to climate neutrality via backcasting. Duffy Colm, Prudhomme Rémi, Duffy Brian, Gibbons James, O'Donoghue Cathal, Ryan Mary, Styles David. 2022. GeoScientific Model Development, 15 (5) : 2239-2264.https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2239-2022 <https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2239-2022> GOBLIN version 1.0: A land balance model to identify national agriculture and land use pathways to climate neutrality via backcasting Duffy, Colm Prudhomme, Rémi Duffy, Brian Gibbons, James O'Donoghue, Cathal Ryan, Mary Styles, David eng 2022 GeoScientific Model Development E11 - Économie et politique foncières P40 - Météorologie et climatologie changement dans l'usage des terres utilisation des terres réduction des émissions http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_fac4b794 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4182 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_331597 The Paris Agreement commits 197 countries to achieve climate stabilisation at a global average surface temperature less than 2 ∘C above pre-industrial times using nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to demonstrate progress. Numerous industrialised economies have targets to achieve territorial climate neutrality by 2050, primarily in the form of “net zero” greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, particular uncertainty remains over the role of countries' agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) sectors for reasons including the potential trade-offs between GHG mitigation and food security, a non-zero emission target for methane as a short-lived GHG, and the requirement for AFOLU to act as a net sink to offset residual emissions from other sectors. These issues are represented at a coarse level in integrated assessment models (IAMs) that indicate the role of AFOLU in global pathways towards climate stabilisation. However, there is an urgent need to determine appropriate AFOLU management strategies at a national level within NDCs. Here, we present a new model designed to evaluate detailed AFOLU scenarios at national scale using the example of Ireland, where approximately 40 % of national GHG emissions originate from AFOLU. GOBLIN (General Overview for a Backcasting approach of Livestock INtensification) is designed to run randomised scenarios of agricultural activities and land use combinations within biophysical constraints (e.g. available land area, livestock productivities, fertiliser-driven grass yields, and forest growth rates). Using AFOLU emission factors from national GHG inventory reporting, GOBLIN calculates annual GHG emissions out to the selected target year for each scenario (2050 in this case). The long-term dynamics of forestry are represented up to 2120 so that scenarios can also be evaluated against the Paris Agreement commitment to achieve a balance between emissions and removals over the second half of the 21st century. Filtering randomised scenarios according to compliance with specific biophysical definitions (GHG time series) of climate neutrality will provide scientific boundaries for appropriate long-term actions within NDCs. We outline the rationale and methodology behind the development of GOBLIN, with an emphasis on biophysical linkages across food production, GHG emissions, and carbon sinks at a national level. We then demonstrate how GOBLIN can be applied to evaluate different scenarios in relation to a few possible simple definitions of “climate neutrality”, discussing opportunities and limitations. article info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal Article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://agritrop.cirad.fr/604014/1/Duffy2022.pdf text cc_by info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2239-2022 10.5194/gmd-15-2239-2022 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/gmd-15-2239-2022 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/purl/https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2239-2022 info:eu-repo/semantics/dataset/purl/https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5047230 |