A simple method to estimate the number of doses to include in a bank of vaccines. The case of Lumpy Skin Disease in France
A simple method to estimate the size of the vaccine bank needed to control an epidemic of an exotic infectious disease in case of introduction into a country is presented. The method was applied to the case of a Lumpy Skin disease (LSD) epidemic in France. The size of the stock of vaccines needed was calculated based on a series of simple equations that use some trigonometric functions and take into account the spread of the disease, the time required to obtain good vaccination coverage and the cattle density in the affected region. Assuming a 7-weeks period to vaccinate all the animals and a spread of the disease of 7.3 km/week, the vaccination of 740 716 cattle would be enough to control an epidemic of LSD in France in 90% of the simulations (608 196 cattle would cover 75% of the simulations). The results of this simple method were then validated using a dynamic simulation model, which served as reference for the calculation of the vaccine stock required. The differences between both models in different scenarios, related with the time needed to vaccinate the animals, ranged from 7% to 10.5% more vaccines using the simple method to cover 90% of the simulations, and from 9.0% to 13.8% for 75% of the simulations. The model is easy to use and may be adapted for the control of different diseases in different countries, just by using some simple formulas and few input data.
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Format: | article biblioteca |
Language: | eng |
Subjects: | L73 - Maladies des animaux, maladie nodulaire cutanée, vaccin, dose d'application, volume, besoin d'investissement, évaluation du risque, méthode, bovin, Buffle domestique, zébu, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16775, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8130, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16113, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8288, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_28708, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_37932, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4788, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1391, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_25410, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8507, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3081, |
Online Access: | http://agritrop.cirad.fr/591123/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/591123/1/journal.pone.0210317.pdf |
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dig-cirad-fr-5911232024-01-29T01:37:34Z http://agritrop.cirad.fr/591123/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/591123/ A simple method to estimate the number of doses to include in a bank of vaccines. The case of Lumpy Skin Disease in France. Casal Jordi, Saegerman Claude, Bertagnoli Stéphane, Meyer Gilles, Ganiere Jean-Pierre, Caufour Philippe, De Clercq Kris, Jacquiet Philippe, Hautefeuille Claire, Etore Florence, Napp Sebastian. 2019. PloS One, 14 (1):e0210317, 10 p.https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0210317 <https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0210317> A simple method to estimate the number of doses to include in a bank of vaccines. The case of Lumpy Skin Disease in France Casal, Jordi Saegerman, Claude Bertagnoli, Stéphane Meyer, Gilles Ganiere, Jean-Pierre Caufour, Philippe De Clercq, Kris Jacquiet, Philippe Hautefeuille, Claire Etore, Florence Napp, Sebastian eng 2019 PloS One L73 - Maladies des animaux maladie nodulaire cutanée vaccin dose d'application volume besoin d'investissement évaluation du risque méthode bovin Buffle domestique zébu http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16775 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8130 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16113 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8288 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_28708 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_37932 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4788 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1391 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_25410 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8507 France http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3081 A simple method to estimate the size of the vaccine bank needed to control an epidemic of an exotic infectious disease in case of introduction into a country is presented. The method was applied to the case of a Lumpy Skin disease (LSD) epidemic in France. The size of the stock of vaccines needed was calculated based on a series of simple equations that use some trigonometric functions and take into account the spread of the disease, the time required to obtain good vaccination coverage and the cattle density in the affected region. Assuming a 7-weeks period to vaccinate all the animals and a spread of the disease of 7.3 km/week, the vaccination of 740 716 cattle would be enough to control an epidemic of LSD in France in 90% of the simulations (608 196 cattle would cover 75% of the simulations). The results of this simple method were then validated using a dynamic simulation model, which served as reference for the calculation of the vaccine stock required. The differences between both models in different scenarios, related with the time needed to vaccinate the animals, ranged from 7% to 10.5% more vaccines using the simple method to cover 90% of the simulations, and from 9.0% to 13.8% for 75% of the simulations. The model is easy to use and may be adapted for the control of different diseases in different countries, just by using some simple formulas and few input data. article info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal Article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://agritrop.cirad.fr/591123/1/journal.pone.0210317.pdf text cc_by info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0210317 10.1371/journal.pone.0210317 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0210317 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/purl/https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0210317 |
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L73 - Maladies des animaux maladie nodulaire cutanée vaccin dose d'application volume besoin d'investissement évaluation du risque méthode bovin Buffle domestique zébu http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16775 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8130 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16113 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8288 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_28708 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_37932 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4788 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1391 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_25410 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8507 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3081 L73 - Maladies des animaux maladie nodulaire cutanée vaccin dose d'application volume besoin d'investissement évaluation du risque méthode bovin Buffle domestique zébu http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16775 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8130 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16113 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8288 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_28708 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_37932 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4788 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1391 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_25410 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8507 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3081 |
spellingShingle |
L73 - Maladies des animaux maladie nodulaire cutanée vaccin dose d'application volume besoin d'investissement évaluation du risque méthode bovin Buffle domestique zébu http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16775 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8130 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16113 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8288 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_28708 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_37932 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4788 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1391 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_25410 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8507 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3081 L73 - Maladies des animaux maladie nodulaire cutanée vaccin dose d'application volume besoin d'investissement évaluation du risque méthode bovin Buffle domestique zébu http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16775 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8130 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16113 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8288 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_28708 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_37932 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4788 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1391 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_25410 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8507 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3081 Casal, Jordi Saegerman, Claude Bertagnoli, Stéphane Meyer, Gilles Ganiere, Jean-Pierre Caufour, Philippe De Clercq, Kris Jacquiet, Philippe Hautefeuille, Claire Etore, Florence Napp, Sebastian A simple method to estimate the number of doses to include in a bank of vaccines. The case of Lumpy Skin Disease in France |
description |
A simple method to estimate the size of the vaccine bank needed to control an epidemic of an exotic infectious disease in case of introduction into a country is presented. The method was applied to the case of a Lumpy Skin disease (LSD) epidemic in France. The size of the stock of vaccines needed was calculated based on a series of simple equations that use some trigonometric functions and take into account the spread of the disease, the time required to obtain good vaccination coverage and the cattle density in the affected region. Assuming a 7-weeks period to vaccinate all the animals and a spread of the disease of 7.3 km/week, the vaccination of 740 716 cattle would be enough to control an epidemic of LSD in France in 90% of the simulations (608 196 cattle would cover 75% of the simulations). The results of this simple method were then validated using a dynamic simulation model, which served as reference for the calculation of the vaccine stock required. The differences between both models in different scenarios, related with the time needed to vaccinate the animals, ranged from 7% to 10.5% more vaccines using the simple method to cover 90% of the simulations, and from 9.0% to 13.8% for 75% of the simulations. The model is easy to use and may be adapted for the control of different diseases in different countries, just by using some simple formulas and few input data. |
format |
article |
topic_facet |
L73 - Maladies des animaux maladie nodulaire cutanée vaccin dose d'application volume besoin d'investissement évaluation du risque méthode bovin Buffle domestique zébu http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16775 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8130 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16113 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8288 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_28708 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_37932 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4788 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1391 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_25410 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8507 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3081 |
author |
Casal, Jordi Saegerman, Claude Bertagnoli, Stéphane Meyer, Gilles Ganiere, Jean-Pierre Caufour, Philippe De Clercq, Kris Jacquiet, Philippe Hautefeuille, Claire Etore, Florence Napp, Sebastian |
author_facet |
Casal, Jordi Saegerman, Claude Bertagnoli, Stéphane Meyer, Gilles Ganiere, Jean-Pierre Caufour, Philippe De Clercq, Kris Jacquiet, Philippe Hautefeuille, Claire Etore, Florence Napp, Sebastian |
author_sort |
Casal, Jordi |
title |
A simple method to estimate the number of doses to include in a bank of vaccines. The case of Lumpy Skin Disease in France |
title_short |
A simple method to estimate the number of doses to include in a bank of vaccines. The case of Lumpy Skin Disease in France |
title_full |
A simple method to estimate the number of doses to include in a bank of vaccines. The case of Lumpy Skin Disease in France |
title_fullStr |
A simple method to estimate the number of doses to include in a bank of vaccines. The case of Lumpy Skin Disease in France |
title_full_unstemmed |
A simple method to estimate the number of doses to include in a bank of vaccines. The case of Lumpy Skin Disease in France |
title_sort |
simple method to estimate the number of doses to include in a bank of vaccines. the case of lumpy skin disease in france |
url |
http://agritrop.cirad.fr/591123/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/591123/1/journal.pone.0210317.pdf |
work_keys_str_mv |
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