Livestock farms' upscaling unlimited? Building scenarios for Vietnam's dairy sector by 2030

In Vietnam, the emergence of large commercial farms and even of some “mega-farms”, questions the future of the dairy sector. Is social, economic and environmental sustainability of dairy farming likely to be affected by this rapid farms' upscaling? The Revalter foresight study depicted 3 contrasted plausible scenarios for the dairy sector by 2030 in order to challenge this rapid transformation. This foresight exercise was conducted through participatory scenario planning with local stakeholders and with the use of a quantitative model. The “Maximum concentration” scenario is based on the prominence of a limited number of integrated mega-farms of thousands of cows. The “Social and inclusive sector” scenario is built with an exclusive contribution of family dairy farms. The “Smiling cow” scenario is discussed to accommodate different farm models in a complementary approach. In the context of a rapid transition of the economy and of the ecosystems, and with some strong restriction on land access, smallholders and family farms show interesting results in terms of sustainable development. Appropriate policy actions are needed to ensure the coexistence of the different types of farms in view of balancing the supply and demand, as well as adapting to the puzzles of local land, rural labor and the environment.