A simple method to evaluate the number of doses to include in a bank of vaccines. The case of Lumpy Skin in France. [P2 4]
The preparedness for a good and rapid response against some exotic diseases includes the availability of vaccines. The objective of this paper is to describe a simple method to estimate the size that a vaccine bank should have to manage an emergency vaccination campaign against Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) in France. Methods: To determine the size of the vaccine bank, the following factors were taken into account: 1) The average speed of the LSD through the affected area, estimated by Mercier et al. (2017) in 7.3 km / week. 2) The time required to obtain a full vaccination coverage, and 3) The cattle density in the area. It was assumed that all cattle present in the area will be vaccinated using a single dose per animal. An Excel file with a macro was used to simulate ten thousands scenarios of LSD spread in France. To simplify the calculations, the French departments were considered as squares, and the index case was located randomly in the department. If the radius around the index case exceeded the department, it extended through the other departments in the region. Results were validated using a more complex model developed in R (R Development Core Team., 2013), which reproduced the real geography of France. Results: The median of the vaccine doses need by both methods are significantly different (between 19% and 23% more vaccines are needed according the simple method). But both methods fit quite good when determining the number of doses that would be necessary in 90% of the cases. For a 7 weeks period (radius of 51.1 km), 750 000 doses of vaccine would be enough for 90% of the simulations, while for the more refined method the number of doses was 680 000 (difference of 10% ). Discussion: The method is simple and easy to use, and can be adapted to different conditions and diseases. It fits reasonable good with a more sophisticated method that takes into account de farms actually present in the zone. No jumps of the disease to long distances have been considered. At the department level, the results present more important differences (in some cases the number of vaccine needed are two folds higher using one method than using the other one).
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , |
---|---|
Format: | conference_item biblioteca |
Language: | eng |
Published: |
ANSES
|
Subjects: | L73 - Maladies des animaux, |
Online Access: | http://agritrop.cirad.fr/586561/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/586561/1/ID586561.pdf |
Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
id |
dig-cirad-fr-586561 |
---|---|
record_format |
koha |
spelling |
dig-cirad-fr-5865612022-03-30T12:02:58Z http://agritrop.cirad.fr/586561/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/586561/ A simple method to evaluate the number of doses to include in a bank of vaccines. The case of Lumpy Skin in France. [P2 4]. Casal Jordi, Saegerman Claude, Bertagnoli Stéphane, Meyer Gilles, Ganiere Jean-Pierre, Caufour Philippe, De Clercq Kris, Jacquiet Philippe, Hautefeuille Claire, Etore Florence, Napp Sebastian. 2017. In : Abstract book of the 11th Epizone Annual Meeting welcome in Paris. anses. Paris : ANSES, Résumé, 115. Annual Meeting EPIZONE: Crossing barriers, Paris, France, 19 Septembre 2017/21 Septembre 2017.https://www.epizone-eu.net/en/Home/show/11th-AM-1.htm <https://www.epizone-eu.net/en/Home/show/11th-AM-1.htm> Researchers A simple method to evaluate the number of doses to include in a bank of vaccines. The case of Lumpy Skin in France. [P2 4] Casal, Jordi Saegerman, Claude Bertagnoli, Stéphane Meyer, Gilles Ganiere, Jean-Pierre Caufour, Philippe De Clercq, Kris Jacquiet, Philippe Hautefeuille, Claire Etore, Florence Napp, Sebastian eng 2017 ANSES Abstract book of the 11th Epizone Annual Meeting welcome in Paris L73 - Maladies des animaux The preparedness for a good and rapid response against some exotic diseases includes the availability of vaccines. The objective of this paper is to describe a simple method to estimate the size that a vaccine bank should have to manage an emergency vaccination campaign against Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) in France. Methods: To determine the size of the vaccine bank, the following factors were taken into account: 1) The average speed of the LSD through the affected area, estimated by Mercier et al. (2017) in 7.3 km / week. 2) The time required to obtain a full vaccination coverage, and 3) The cattle density in the area. It was assumed that all cattle present in the area will be vaccinated using a single dose per animal. An Excel file with a macro was used to simulate ten thousands scenarios of LSD spread in France. To simplify the calculations, the French departments were considered as squares, and the index case was located randomly in the department. If the radius around the index case exceeded the department, it extended through the other departments in the region. Results were validated using a more complex model developed in R (R Development Core Team., 2013), which reproduced the real geography of France. Results: The median of the vaccine doses need by both methods are significantly different (between 19% and 23% more vaccines are needed according the simple method). But both methods fit quite good when determining the number of doses that would be necessary in 90% of the cases. For a 7 weeks period (radius of 51.1 km), 750 000 doses of vaccine would be enough for 90% of the simulations, while for the more refined method the number of doses was 680 000 (difference of 10% ). Discussion: The method is simple and easy to use, and can be adapted to different conditions and diseases. It fits reasonable good with a more sophisticated method that takes into account de farms actually present in the zone. No jumps of the disease to long distances have been considered. At the department level, the results present more important differences (in some cases the number of vaccine needed are two folds higher using one method than using the other one). conference_item info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject Conference info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://agritrop.cirad.fr/586561/1/ID586561.pdf text Cirad license info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://agritrop.cirad.fr/mention_legale.html https://www.epizone-eu.net/en/Home/show/11th-AM-1.htm info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/purl/https://www.epizone-eu.net/en/Home/show/11th-AM-1.htm |
institution |
CIRAD FR |
collection |
DSpace |
country |
Francia |
countrycode |
FR |
component |
Bibliográfico |
access |
En linea |
databasecode |
dig-cirad-fr |
tag |
biblioteca |
region |
Europa del Oeste |
libraryname |
Biblioteca del CIRAD Francia |
language |
eng |
topic |
L73 - Maladies des animaux L73 - Maladies des animaux |
spellingShingle |
L73 - Maladies des animaux L73 - Maladies des animaux Casal, Jordi Saegerman, Claude Bertagnoli, Stéphane Meyer, Gilles Ganiere, Jean-Pierre Caufour, Philippe De Clercq, Kris Jacquiet, Philippe Hautefeuille, Claire Etore, Florence Napp, Sebastian A simple method to evaluate the number of doses to include in a bank of vaccines. The case of Lumpy Skin in France. [P2 4] |
description |
The preparedness for a good and rapid response against some exotic diseases includes the availability of vaccines. The objective of this paper is to describe a simple method to estimate the size that a vaccine bank should have to manage an emergency vaccination campaign against Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) in France. Methods: To determine the size of the vaccine bank, the following factors were taken into account: 1) The average speed of the LSD through the affected area, estimated by Mercier et al. (2017) in 7.3 km / week. 2) The time required to obtain a full vaccination coverage, and 3) The cattle density in the area. It was assumed that all cattle present in the area will be vaccinated using a single dose per animal. An Excel file with a macro was used to simulate ten thousands scenarios of LSD spread in France. To simplify the calculations, the French departments were considered as squares, and the index case was located randomly in the department. If the radius around the index case exceeded the department, it extended through the other departments in the region. Results were validated using a more complex model developed in R (R Development Core Team., 2013), which reproduced the real geography of France. Results: The median of the vaccine doses need by both methods are significantly different (between 19% and 23% more vaccines are needed according the simple method). But both methods fit quite good when determining the number of doses that would be necessary in 90% of the cases. For a 7 weeks period (radius of 51.1 km), 750 000 doses of vaccine would be enough for 90% of the simulations, while for the more refined method the number of doses was 680 000 (difference of 10% ). Discussion: The method is simple and easy to use, and can be adapted to different conditions and diseases. It fits reasonable good with a more sophisticated method that takes into account de farms actually present in the zone. No jumps of the disease to long distances have been considered. At the department level, the results present more important differences (in some cases the number of vaccine needed are two folds higher using one method than using the other one). |
format |
conference_item |
topic_facet |
L73 - Maladies des animaux |
author |
Casal, Jordi Saegerman, Claude Bertagnoli, Stéphane Meyer, Gilles Ganiere, Jean-Pierre Caufour, Philippe De Clercq, Kris Jacquiet, Philippe Hautefeuille, Claire Etore, Florence Napp, Sebastian |
author_facet |
Casal, Jordi Saegerman, Claude Bertagnoli, Stéphane Meyer, Gilles Ganiere, Jean-Pierre Caufour, Philippe De Clercq, Kris Jacquiet, Philippe Hautefeuille, Claire Etore, Florence Napp, Sebastian |
author_sort |
Casal, Jordi |
title |
A simple method to evaluate the number of doses to include in a bank of vaccines. The case of Lumpy Skin in France. [P2 4] |
title_short |
A simple method to evaluate the number of doses to include in a bank of vaccines. The case of Lumpy Skin in France. [P2 4] |
title_full |
A simple method to evaluate the number of doses to include in a bank of vaccines. The case of Lumpy Skin in France. [P2 4] |
title_fullStr |
A simple method to evaluate the number of doses to include in a bank of vaccines. The case of Lumpy Skin in France. [P2 4] |
title_full_unstemmed |
A simple method to evaluate the number of doses to include in a bank of vaccines. The case of Lumpy Skin in France. [P2 4] |
title_sort |
simple method to evaluate the number of doses to include in a bank of vaccines. the case of lumpy skin in france. [p2 4] |
publisher |
ANSES |
url |
http://agritrop.cirad.fr/586561/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/586561/1/ID586561.pdf |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT casaljordi asimplemethodtoevaluatethenumberofdosestoincludeinabankofvaccinesthecaseoflumpyskininfrancep24 AT saegermanclaude asimplemethodtoevaluatethenumberofdosestoincludeinabankofvaccinesthecaseoflumpyskininfrancep24 AT bertagnolistephane asimplemethodtoevaluatethenumberofdosestoincludeinabankofvaccinesthecaseoflumpyskininfrancep24 AT meyergilles asimplemethodtoevaluatethenumberofdosestoincludeinabankofvaccinesthecaseoflumpyskininfrancep24 AT ganierejeanpierre asimplemethodtoevaluatethenumberofdosestoincludeinabankofvaccinesthecaseoflumpyskininfrancep24 AT caufourphilippe asimplemethodtoevaluatethenumberofdosestoincludeinabankofvaccinesthecaseoflumpyskininfrancep24 AT declercqkris asimplemethodtoevaluatethenumberofdosestoincludeinabankofvaccinesthecaseoflumpyskininfrancep24 AT jacquietphilippe asimplemethodtoevaluatethenumberofdosestoincludeinabankofvaccinesthecaseoflumpyskininfrancep24 AT hautefeuilleclaire asimplemethodtoevaluatethenumberofdosestoincludeinabankofvaccinesthecaseoflumpyskininfrancep24 AT etoreflorence asimplemethodtoevaluatethenumberofdosestoincludeinabankofvaccinesthecaseoflumpyskininfrancep24 AT nappsebastian asimplemethodtoevaluatethenumberofdosestoincludeinabankofvaccinesthecaseoflumpyskininfrancep24 AT casaljordi simplemethodtoevaluatethenumberofdosestoincludeinabankofvaccinesthecaseoflumpyskininfrancep24 AT saegermanclaude simplemethodtoevaluatethenumberofdosestoincludeinabankofvaccinesthecaseoflumpyskininfrancep24 AT bertagnolistephane simplemethodtoevaluatethenumberofdosestoincludeinabankofvaccinesthecaseoflumpyskininfrancep24 AT meyergilles simplemethodtoevaluatethenumberofdosestoincludeinabankofvaccinesthecaseoflumpyskininfrancep24 AT ganierejeanpierre simplemethodtoevaluatethenumberofdosestoincludeinabankofvaccinesthecaseoflumpyskininfrancep24 AT caufourphilippe simplemethodtoevaluatethenumberofdosestoincludeinabankofvaccinesthecaseoflumpyskininfrancep24 AT declercqkris simplemethodtoevaluatethenumberofdosestoincludeinabankofvaccinesthecaseoflumpyskininfrancep24 AT jacquietphilippe simplemethodtoevaluatethenumberofdosestoincludeinabankofvaccinesthecaseoflumpyskininfrancep24 AT hautefeuilleclaire simplemethodtoevaluatethenumberofdosestoincludeinabankofvaccinesthecaseoflumpyskininfrancep24 AT etoreflorence simplemethodtoevaluatethenumberofdosestoincludeinabankofvaccinesthecaseoflumpyskininfrancep24 AT nappsebastian simplemethodtoevaluatethenumberofdosestoincludeinabankofvaccinesthecaseoflumpyskininfrancep24 |
_version_ |
1758025595869986816 |