Long-term change in rainfall distribution in Northeast Thailand: Will cropping systems be able to adapt?
Climate vagaries and the lack of irrigation, frequently combined with coarse-textured sandy and unevenly distributed saline soils, explain low crop yields and the endemic relative poverty of the rural population in Northeast Thailand (NET). Local and regional trends in agriculturally-relevant rainfall variables were investigated using the Mann-Kendall test, modified to account for serial correlation, and applied to 17 stations across NET, and the regional average Kendall's statistic. Limited changes in rainfall frequency, intensity and seasonality are observed at individual stations over the study period (1953–2004). But we found a significant regional trend toward a wetter dry season. Based on an intimate knowledge of the local farming systems, we discuss the cropping systems adaptation to these rainfall changes. If the wetting of the dry season extends in the future, as expected according to most climate projections, households would not find it difficult to adapt, except for the problems caused by temperature rise, mainly due to their renowned adaptive capacity and high mobility that historically produced diverse and resilient rural livelihood systems.
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dig-cirad-fr-5839312024-01-29T00:11:48Z http://agritrop.cirad.fr/583931/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/583931/ Long-term change in rainfall distribution in Northeast Thailand: Will cropping systems be able to adapt? Lacombe Guillaume, Polthanee Anan, Trébuil Guy. 2017. Cahiers Agricultures, 26 (2):e25001, 10 p.https://doi.org/10.1051/cagri/2017006 <https://doi.org/10.1051/cagri/2017006> Long-term change in rainfall distribution in Northeast Thailand: Will cropping systems be able to adapt? Lacombe, Guillaume Polthanee, Anan Trébuil, Guy eng 2017 Cahiers Agricultures P40 - Météorologie et climatologie F08 - Systèmes et modes de culture système de culture adaptation aux changements climatiques changement climatique précipitation pluviométrie riz aquatique Oryza sativa culture fruitière Sesamum indicum Ipomoea batatas Arachis hypogaea Manihot esculenta variation saisonnière conditions météorologiques http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1971 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1374567058134 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6161 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_29572 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_34362 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5438 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_25476 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6992 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3937 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_572 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4579 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24894 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_29565 Thaïlande http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7701 Climate vagaries and the lack of irrigation, frequently combined with coarse-textured sandy and unevenly distributed saline soils, explain low crop yields and the endemic relative poverty of the rural population in Northeast Thailand (NET). Local and regional trends in agriculturally-relevant rainfall variables were investigated using the Mann-Kendall test, modified to account for serial correlation, and applied to 17 stations across NET, and the regional average Kendall's statistic. Limited changes in rainfall frequency, intensity and seasonality are observed at individual stations over the study period (1953–2004). But we found a significant regional trend toward a wetter dry season. Based on an intimate knowledge of the local farming systems, we discuss the cropping systems adaptation to these rainfall changes. If the wetting of the dry season extends in the future, as expected according to most climate projections, households would not find it difficult to adapt, except for the problems caused by temperature rise, mainly due to their renowned adaptive capacity and high mobility that historically produced diverse and resilient rural livelihood systems. article info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal Article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://agritrop.cirad.fr/583931/1/Lacombe-Polthanee-Tr%C3%A9buil_ChangeRainfallNEThailand_cagri160180_1703.pdf text cc_by_nd info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/ https://doi.org/10.1051/cagri/2017006 10.1051/cagri/2017006 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1051/cagri/2017006 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/purl/https://doi.org/10.1051/cagri/2017006 |
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P40 - Météorologie et climatologie F08 - Systèmes et modes de culture système de culture adaptation aux changements climatiques changement climatique précipitation pluviométrie riz aquatique Oryza sativa culture fruitière Sesamum indicum Ipomoea batatas Arachis hypogaea Manihot esculenta variation saisonnière conditions météorologiques http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1971 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1374567058134 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6161 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_29572 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_34362 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5438 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_25476 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6992 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3937 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_572 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4579 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24894 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_29565 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7701 P40 - Météorologie et climatologie F08 - Systèmes et modes de culture système de culture adaptation aux changements climatiques changement climatique précipitation pluviométrie riz aquatique Oryza sativa culture fruitière Sesamum indicum Ipomoea batatas Arachis hypogaea Manihot esculenta variation saisonnière conditions météorologiques http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1971 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1374567058134 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6161 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_29572 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_34362 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5438 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_25476 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6992 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3937 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_572 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4579 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24894 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_29565 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7701 |
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P40 - Météorologie et climatologie F08 - Systèmes et modes de culture système de culture adaptation aux changements climatiques changement climatique précipitation pluviométrie riz aquatique Oryza sativa culture fruitière Sesamum indicum Ipomoea batatas Arachis hypogaea Manihot esculenta variation saisonnière conditions météorologiques http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1971 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1374567058134 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6161 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_29572 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_34362 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5438 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_25476 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6992 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3937 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_572 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4579 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24894 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_29565 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7701 P40 - Météorologie et climatologie F08 - Systèmes et modes de culture système de culture adaptation aux changements climatiques changement climatique précipitation pluviométrie riz aquatique Oryza sativa culture fruitière Sesamum indicum Ipomoea batatas Arachis hypogaea Manihot esculenta variation saisonnière conditions météorologiques http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1971 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1374567058134 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6161 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_29572 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_34362 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5438 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_25476 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6992 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3937 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_572 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4579 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24894 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_29565 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7701 Lacombe, Guillaume Polthanee, Anan Trébuil, Guy Long-term change in rainfall distribution in Northeast Thailand: Will cropping systems be able to adapt? |
description |
Climate vagaries and the lack of irrigation, frequently combined with coarse-textured sandy and unevenly distributed saline soils, explain low crop yields and the endemic relative poverty of the rural population in Northeast Thailand (NET). Local and regional trends in agriculturally-relevant rainfall variables were investigated using the Mann-Kendall test, modified to account for serial correlation, and applied to 17 stations across NET, and the regional average Kendall's statistic. Limited changes in rainfall frequency, intensity and seasonality are observed at individual stations over the study period (1953–2004). But we found a significant regional trend toward a wetter dry season. Based on an intimate knowledge of the local farming systems, we discuss the cropping systems adaptation to these rainfall changes. If the wetting of the dry season extends in the future, as expected according to most climate projections, households would not find it difficult to adapt, except for the problems caused by temperature rise, mainly due to their renowned adaptive capacity and high mobility that historically produced diverse and resilient rural livelihood systems. |
format |
article |
topic_facet |
P40 - Météorologie et climatologie F08 - Systèmes et modes de culture système de culture adaptation aux changements climatiques changement climatique précipitation pluviométrie riz aquatique Oryza sativa culture fruitière Sesamum indicum Ipomoea batatas Arachis hypogaea Manihot esculenta variation saisonnière conditions météorologiques http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1971 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1374567058134 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6161 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_29572 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_34362 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5438 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_25476 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6992 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3937 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_572 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4579 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24894 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_29565 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7701 |
author |
Lacombe, Guillaume Polthanee, Anan Trébuil, Guy |
author_facet |
Lacombe, Guillaume Polthanee, Anan Trébuil, Guy |
author_sort |
Lacombe, Guillaume |
title |
Long-term change in rainfall distribution in Northeast Thailand: Will cropping systems be able to adapt? |
title_short |
Long-term change in rainfall distribution in Northeast Thailand: Will cropping systems be able to adapt? |
title_full |
Long-term change in rainfall distribution in Northeast Thailand: Will cropping systems be able to adapt? |
title_fullStr |
Long-term change in rainfall distribution in Northeast Thailand: Will cropping systems be able to adapt? |
title_full_unstemmed |
Long-term change in rainfall distribution in Northeast Thailand: Will cropping systems be able to adapt? |
title_sort |
long-term change in rainfall distribution in northeast thailand: will cropping systems be able to adapt? |
url |
http://agritrop.cirad.fr/583931/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/583931/1/Lacombe-Polthanee-Tr%C3%A9buil_ChangeRainfallNEThailand_cagri160180_1703.pdf |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT lacombeguillaume longtermchangeinrainfalldistributioninnortheastthailandwillcroppingsystemsbeabletoadapt AT polthaneeanan longtermchangeinrainfalldistributioninnortheastthailandwillcroppingsystemsbeabletoadapt AT trebuilguy longtermchangeinrainfalldistributioninnortheastthailandwillcroppingsystemsbeabletoadapt |
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1792499251640532992 |