Island biodiversity hotspots are getting hotter: vulnerability of tree species to climate change in New Caledonia
Future patterns of biodiversity have been extensively explored to design conservation strategies in large continental hotspots. However, little research has focused on island hotspots, although limited opportunities to migrate and the inherent characteristics of island species are likely to cause sensitivity to rapid environmental changes. This study addresses the question of how climate change could affect species richness in New Caledonia, the world's smallest biodiversity hotspot. An individual species distribution model was built for 469 native tree species and projected according to nine climate change scenarios. Results indicated that the range size of 87–96% of species will have declined by 2070, 52–84% will lose at least half of their current range, and 0–15% will become extinct. Surprisingly, these predictions did not significantly exceed those for larger biodiversity hotspots. Underlying reasons may include an oceanic buffering effect that attenuates increases in air temperature, and the complex topography that generates micro-refugia. Major losses in local species richness were predicted to occur on ultramafic substrates and at mid-elevation. Loss on ultramafic substrates may stem from the number of ultramafic-specialist species that will lack a suitable climate on this specific substrate, while substrate-ubiquitous species are more likely to find refugia. Loss at mid-elevation could mirror a shift in optimum temperature-precipitation value, whose role in shaping the current pattern of diversity may have been overestimated by the models. Hopefully, these results will encourage further research to define the right mitigation and adaptation strategies on oceanic islands, where extinctions would contribute disproportionally to global biodiversity decline.
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dig-cirad-fr-5823272024-01-28T23:49:04Z http://agritrop.cirad.fr/582327/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/582327/ Island biodiversity hotspots are getting hotter: vulnerability of tree species to climate change in New Caledonia. Pouteau Robin, Birnbaum Philippe. 2016. Biological Conservation, 201 : 111-119.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2016.06.031 <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2016.06.031> Island biodiversity hotspots are getting hotter: vulnerability of tree species to climate change in New Caledonia Pouteau, Robin Birnbaum, Philippe eng 2016 Biological Conservation K01 - Foresterie - Considérations générales F40 - Écologie végétale P01 - Conservation de la nature et ressources foncières P40 - Météorologie et climatologie arbre forestier forêt biodiversité changement climatique adaptation aux changements climatiques île espèce en danger température précipitation climat océanique modèle de simulation conservation des ressources génétiques forêt tropicale humide topographie http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3052 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3062 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_33949 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1374567058134 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3962 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2557 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7657 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6161 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5298 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24242 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_37280 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7976 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7815 Nouvelle-Calédonie France http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5155 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3081 Future patterns of biodiversity have been extensively explored to design conservation strategies in large continental hotspots. However, little research has focused on island hotspots, although limited opportunities to migrate and the inherent characteristics of island species are likely to cause sensitivity to rapid environmental changes. This study addresses the question of how climate change could affect species richness in New Caledonia, the world's smallest biodiversity hotspot. An individual species distribution model was built for 469 native tree species and projected according to nine climate change scenarios. Results indicated that the range size of 87–96% of species will have declined by 2070, 52–84% will lose at least half of their current range, and 0–15% will become extinct. Surprisingly, these predictions did not significantly exceed those for larger biodiversity hotspots. Underlying reasons may include an oceanic buffering effect that attenuates increases in air temperature, and the complex topography that generates micro-refugia. Major losses in local species richness were predicted to occur on ultramafic substrates and at mid-elevation. Loss on ultramafic substrates may stem from the number of ultramafic-specialist species that will lack a suitable climate on this specific substrate, while substrate-ubiquitous species are more likely to find refugia. Loss at mid-elevation could mirror a shift in optimum temperature-precipitation value, whose role in shaping the current pattern of diversity may have been overestimated by the models. Hopefully, these results will encourage further research to define the right mitigation and adaptation strategies on oceanic islands, where extinctions would contribute disproportionally to global biodiversity decline. article info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal Article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://agritrop.cirad.fr/582327/1/1-s2.0-S0006320716302555-main.pdf text Cirad license info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess https://agritrop.cirad.fr/mention_legale.html https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2016.06.031 10.1016/j.biocon.2016.06.031 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.biocon.2016.06.031 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/purl/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2016.06.031 |
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K01 - Foresterie - Considérations générales F40 - Écologie végétale P01 - Conservation de la nature et ressources foncières P40 - Météorologie et climatologie arbre forestier forêt biodiversité changement climatique adaptation aux changements climatiques île espèce en danger température précipitation climat océanique modèle de simulation conservation des ressources génétiques forêt tropicale humide topographie http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3052 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3062 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_33949 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1374567058134 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3962 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2557 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7657 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6161 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5298 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24242 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_37280 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7976 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7815 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5155 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3081 K01 - Foresterie - Considérations générales F40 - Écologie végétale P01 - Conservation de la nature et ressources foncières P40 - Météorologie et climatologie arbre forestier forêt biodiversité changement climatique adaptation aux changements climatiques île espèce en danger température précipitation climat océanique modèle de simulation conservation des ressources génétiques forêt tropicale humide topographie http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3052 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3062 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_33949 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1374567058134 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3962 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2557 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7657 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6161 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5298 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24242 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_37280 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7976 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7815 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5155 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3081 |
spellingShingle |
K01 - Foresterie - Considérations générales F40 - Écologie végétale P01 - Conservation de la nature et ressources foncières P40 - Météorologie et climatologie arbre forestier forêt biodiversité changement climatique adaptation aux changements climatiques île espèce en danger température précipitation climat océanique modèle de simulation conservation des ressources génétiques forêt tropicale humide topographie http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3052 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3062 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_33949 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1374567058134 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3962 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2557 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7657 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6161 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5298 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24242 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_37280 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7976 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7815 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5155 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3081 K01 - Foresterie - Considérations générales F40 - Écologie végétale P01 - Conservation de la nature et ressources foncières P40 - Météorologie et climatologie arbre forestier forêt biodiversité changement climatique adaptation aux changements climatiques île espèce en danger température précipitation climat océanique modèle de simulation conservation des ressources génétiques forêt tropicale humide topographie http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3052 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3062 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_33949 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1374567058134 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3962 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2557 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7657 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6161 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5298 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24242 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_37280 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7976 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7815 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5155 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3081 Pouteau, Robin Birnbaum, Philippe Island biodiversity hotspots are getting hotter: vulnerability of tree species to climate change in New Caledonia |
description |
Future patterns of biodiversity have been extensively explored to design conservation strategies in large continental hotspots. However, little research has focused on island hotspots, although limited opportunities to migrate and the inherent characteristics of island species are likely to cause sensitivity to rapid environmental changes. This study addresses the question of how climate change could affect species richness in New Caledonia, the world's smallest biodiversity hotspot. An individual species distribution model was built for 469 native tree species and projected according to nine climate change scenarios. Results indicated that the range size of 87–96% of species will have declined by 2070, 52–84% will lose at least half of their current range, and 0–15% will become extinct. Surprisingly, these predictions did not significantly exceed those for larger biodiversity hotspots. Underlying reasons may include an oceanic buffering effect that attenuates increases in air temperature, and the complex topography that generates micro-refugia. Major losses in local species richness were predicted to occur on ultramafic substrates and at mid-elevation. Loss on ultramafic substrates may stem from the number of ultramafic-specialist species that will lack a suitable climate on this specific substrate, while substrate-ubiquitous species are more likely to find refugia. Loss at mid-elevation could mirror a shift in optimum temperature-precipitation value, whose role in shaping the current pattern of diversity may have been overestimated by the models. Hopefully, these results will encourage further research to define the right mitigation and adaptation strategies on oceanic islands, where extinctions would contribute disproportionally to global biodiversity decline. |
format |
article |
topic_facet |
K01 - Foresterie - Considérations générales F40 - Écologie végétale P01 - Conservation de la nature et ressources foncières P40 - Météorologie et climatologie arbre forestier forêt biodiversité changement climatique adaptation aux changements climatiques île espèce en danger température précipitation climat océanique modèle de simulation conservation des ressources génétiques forêt tropicale humide topographie http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3052 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3062 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_33949 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1374567058134 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3962 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2557 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7657 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6161 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5298 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24242 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_37280 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7976 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7815 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5155 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3081 |
author |
Pouteau, Robin Birnbaum, Philippe |
author_facet |
Pouteau, Robin Birnbaum, Philippe |
author_sort |
Pouteau, Robin |
title |
Island biodiversity hotspots are getting hotter: vulnerability of tree species to climate change in New Caledonia |
title_short |
Island biodiversity hotspots are getting hotter: vulnerability of tree species to climate change in New Caledonia |
title_full |
Island biodiversity hotspots are getting hotter: vulnerability of tree species to climate change in New Caledonia |
title_fullStr |
Island biodiversity hotspots are getting hotter: vulnerability of tree species to climate change in New Caledonia |
title_full_unstemmed |
Island biodiversity hotspots are getting hotter: vulnerability of tree species to climate change in New Caledonia |
title_sort |
island biodiversity hotspots are getting hotter: vulnerability of tree species to climate change in new caledonia |
url |
http://agritrop.cirad.fr/582327/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/582327/1/1-s2.0-S0006320716302555-main.pdf |
work_keys_str_mv |
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