Bioclimatic envelope models predict a decrease in tropical forest carbon stocks with climate change in Madagascar
Recent studies have underlined the importance of climatic variables in determining tree height and biomass in tropical forests. Nonetheless, the effects of climate on tropical forest carbon stocks remain uncertain. In particular, the application of process-based dynamic global vegetation models has led to contrasting conclusions regarding the potential impact of climate change on tropical forest carbon storage. Using a correlative approach based on a bioclimatic envelope model and data from 1771 forest plots inventoried during the period 1996–2013 in Madagascar over a large climatic gradient, we show that temperature seasonality, annual precipitation and mean annual temperature are key variables in determining forest above-ground carbon density. Taking into account the explicative climate variables, we obtained an accurate (R2 = 70% and RMSE = 40 Mg ha−1) forest carbon map for Madagascar at 250 m resolution for the year 2010. This national map was more accurate than previously published global carbon maps (R2 ≤ 26% and RMSE ≥ 63 Mg ha−1). Combining our model with the climatic projections for Madagascar from 7 IPCC CMIP5 global climate models following the RCP 8.5, we forecast an average forest carbon stock loss of 17% (range: 7–24%) by the year 2080. For comparison, a spatially homogeneous deforestation of 0.5% per year on the same period would lead to a loss of 30% of the forest carbon stock. Synthesis. Our study shows that climate change is likely to induce a decrease in tropical forest carbon stocks. This loss could be due to a decrease in the average tree size and to shifts in tree species distribution, with the selection of small-statured species. In Madagascar, climate-induced carbon emissions might be, at least, of the same order of magnitude as emissions associated with anthropogenic deforestation.
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K01 - Foresterie - Considérations générales P40 - Météorologie et climatologie F60 - Physiologie et biochimie végétale forêt tropicale séquestration du carbone changement climatique déboisement réduction des émissions atténuation des effets du changement climatique croissance biomasse impact sur l'environnement modèle de simulation modèle mathématique inventaire forestier http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24904 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_331583 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_15590 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_331597 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1374571087594 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3394 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_926 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24420 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24242 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24199 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24174 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4510 K01 - Foresterie - Considérations générales P40 - Météorologie et climatologie F60 - Physiologie et biochimie végétale forêt tropicale séquestration du carbone changement climatique déboisement réduction des émissions atténuation des effets du changement climatique croissance biomasse impact sur l'environnement modèle de simulation modèle mathématique inventaire forestier http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24904 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_331583 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_15590 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_331597 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1374571087594 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3394 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_926 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24420 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24242 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24199 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24174 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4510 |
spellingShingle |
K01 - Foresterie - Considérations générales P40 - Météorologie et climatologie F60 - Physiologie et biochimie végétale forêt tropicale séquestration du carbone changement climatique déboisement réduction des émissions atténuation des effets du changement climatique croissance biomasse impact sur l'environnement modèle de simulation modèle mathématique inventaire forestier http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24904 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_331583 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_15590 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_331597 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1374571087594 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3394 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_926 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24420 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24242 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24199 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24174 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4510 K01 - Foresterie - Considérations générales P40 - Météorologie et climatologie F60 - Physiologie et biochimie végétale forêt tropicale séquestration du carbone changement climatique déboisement réduction des émissions atténuation des effets du changement climatique croissance biomasse impact sur l'environnement modèle de simulation modèle mathématique inventaire forestier http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24904 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_331583 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_15590 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_331597 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1374571087594 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3394 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_926 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24420 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24242 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24199 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24174 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4510 Vieilledent, Ghislain Gardi, Olivier Grinand, Clovis Burren, Christian Andriamanjato, Mamitiana Camara, Christian Gardner, Charlie J. Glass, Leah Rasolohery, Andriambolantsoa Ratsimba, Harifidy Rakoto Gond, Valéry Rakotoarijaona, Jean-Roger Bioclimatic envelope models predict a decrease in tropical forest carbon stocks with climate change in Madagascar |
description |
Recent studies have underlined the importance of climatic variables in determining tree height and biomass in tropical forests. Nonetheless, the effects of climate on tropical forest carbon stocks remain uncertain. In particular, the application of process-based dynamic global vegetation models has led to contrasting conclusions regarding the potential impact of climate change on tropical forest carbon storage. Using a correlative approach based on a bioclimatic envelope model and data from 1771 forest plots inventoried during the period 1996–2013 in Madagascar over a large climatic gradient, we show that temperature seasonality, annual precipitation and mean annual temperature are key variables in determining forest above-ground carbon density. Taking into account the explicative climate variables, we obtained an accurate (R2 = 70% and RMSE = 40 Mg ha−1) forest carbon map for Madagascar at 250 m resolution for the year 2010. This national map was more accurate than previously published global carbon maps (R2 ≤ 26% and RMSE ≥ 63 Mg ha−1). Combining our model with the climatic projections for Madagascar from 7 IPCC CMIP5 global climate models following the RCP 8.5, we forecast an average forest carbon stock loss of 17% (range: 7–24%) by the year 2080. For comparison, a spatially homogeneous deforestation of 0.5% per year on the same period would lead to a loss of 30% of the forest carbon stock. Synthesis. Our study shows that climate change is likely to induce a decrease in tropical forest carbon stocks. This loss could be due to a decrease in the average tree size and to shifts in tree species distribution, with the selection of small-statured species. In Madagascar, climate-induced carbon emissions might be, at least, of the same order of magnitude as emissions associated with anthropogenic deforestation. |
format |
article |
topic_facet |
K01 - Foresterie - Considérations générales P40 - Météorologie et climatologie F60 - Physiologie et biochimie végétale forêt tropicale séquestration du carbone changement climatique déboisement réduction des émissions atténuation des effets du changement climatique croissance biomasse impact sur l'environnement modèle de simulation modèle mathématique inventaire forestier http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24904 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_331583 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_15590 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_331597 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1374571087594 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3394 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_926 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24420 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24242 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24199 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24174 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4510 |
author |
Vieilledent, Ghislain Gardi, Olivier Grinand, Clovis Burren, Christian Andriamanjato, Mamitiana Camara, Christian Gardner, Charlie J. Glass, Leah Rasolohery, Andriambolantsoa Ratsimba, Harifidy Rakoto Gond, Valéry Rakotoarijaona, Jean-Roger |
author_facet |
Vieilledent, Ghislain Gardi, Olivier Grinand, Clovis Burren, Christian Andriamanjato, Mamitiana Camara, Christian Gardner, Charlie J. Glass, Leah Rasolohery, Andriambolantsoa Ratsimba, Harifidy Rakoto Gond, Valéry Rakotoarijaona, Jean-Roger |
author_sort |
Vieilledent, Ghislain |
title |
Bioclimatic envelope models predict a decrease in tropical forest carbon stocks with climate change in Madagascar |
title_short |
Bioclimatic envelope models predict a decrease in tropical forest carbon stocks with climate change in Madagascar |
title_full |
Bioclimatic envelope models predict a decrease in tropical forest carbon stocks with climate change in Madagascar |
title_fullStr |
Bioclimatic envelope models predict a decrease in tropical forest carbon stocks with climate change in Madagascar |
title_full_unstemmed |
Bioclimatic envelope models predict a decrease in tropical forest carbon stocks with climate change in Madagascar |
title_sort |
bioclimatic envelope models predict a decrease in tropical forest carbon stocks with climate change in madagascar |
url |
http://agritrop.cirad.fr/579884/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/579884/7/Vieilledent_et_al-2016-Journal_of_Ecology.pdf |
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dig-cirad-fr-5798842024-07-12T06:10:53Z http://agritrop.cirad.fr/579884/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/579884/ Bioclimatic envelope models predict a decrease in tropical forest carbon stocks with climate change in Madagascar. Vieilledent Ghislain, Gardi Olivier, Grinand Clovis, Burren Christian, Andriamanjato Mamitiana, Camara Christian, Gardner Charlie J., Glass Leah, Rasolohery Andriambolantsoa, Ratsimba Harifidy Rakoto, Gond Valéry, Rakotoarijaona Jean-Roger. 2016. Journal of Ecology, 104 (3) : 703-715.https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.12548 <https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.12548> Bioclimatic envelope models predict a decrease in tropical forest carbon stocks with climate change in Madagascar Vieilledent, Ghislain Gardi, Olivier Grinand, Clovis Burren, Christian Andriamanjato, Mamitiana Camara, Christian Gardner, Charlie J. Glass, Leah Rasolohery, Andriambolantsoa Ratsimba, Harifidy Rakoto Gond, Valéry Rakotoarijaona, Jean-Roger eng 2016 Journal of Ecology K01 - Foresterie - Considérations générales P40 - Météorologie et climatologie F60 - Physiologie et biochimie végétale forêt tropicale séquestration du carbone changement climatique déboisement réduction des émissions atténuation des effets du changement climatique croissance biomasse impact sur l'environnement modèle de simulation modèle mathématique inventaire forestier http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24904 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_331583 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_15590 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_331597 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1374571087594 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3394 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_926 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24420 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24242 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24199 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24174 Madagascar http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4510 Recent studies have underlined the importance of climatic variables in determining tree height and biomass in tropical forests. Nonetheless, the effects of climate on tropical forest carbon stocks remain uncertain. In particular, the application of process-based dynamic global vegetation models has led to contrasting conclusions regarding the potential impact of climate change on tropical forest carbon storage. Using a correlative approach based on a bioclimatic envelope model and data from 1771 forest plots inventoried during the period 1996–2013 in Madagascar over a large climatic gradient, we show that temperature seasonality, annual precipitation and mean annual temperature are key variables in determining forest above-ground carbon density. Taking into account the explicative climate variables, we obtained an accurate (R2 = 70% and RMSE = 40 Mg ha−1) forest carbon map for Madagascar at 250 m resolution for the year 2010. This national map was more accurate than previously published global carbon maps (R2 ≤ 26% and RMSE ≥ 63 Mg ha−1). Combining our model with the climatic projections for Madagascar from 7 IPCC CMIP5 global climate models following the RCP 8.5, we forecast an average forest carbon stock loss of 17% (range: 7–24%) by the year 2080. For comparison, a spatially homogeneous deforestation of 0.5% per year on the same period would lead to a loss of 30% of the forest carbon stock. Synthesis. Our study shows that climate change is likely to induce a decrease in tropical forest carbon stocks. This loss could be due to a decrease in the average tree size and to shifts in tree species distribution, with the selection of small-statured species. In Madagascar, climate-induced carbon emissions might be, at least, of the same order of magnitude as emissions associated with anthropogenic deforestation. article info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal Article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://agritrop.cirad.fr/579884/7/Vieilledent_et_al-2016-Journal_of_Ecology.pdf text Cirad license info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess https://agritrop.cirad.fr/mention_legale.html https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.12548 10.1111/1365-2745.12548 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1111/1365-2745.12548 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/purl/https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.12548 info:eu-repo/semantics/dataset/purl/https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.9ph68 |