Uncertainty analysis of the productivity of cattle populations in tropical drylands
This article presents an uncertainty analysis of the productivity of cattle herds in traditional farming systems of West and Central African drylands. The study focused on productivity rates in animal numbers (RN) and meat weights (RW) estimated from a herd growth model, which were compared with FAOSTAT-based estimates. The uncertainty analysis contained the following two steps: uncertainty propagation and a global sensitivity analysis. The analysis was based on a state-of-the-art of the current knowledge and a set of available data on the herd performances. The calculations used Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the 95% confidence intervals (CI) of RN and RW and the standardized regression coefficients method to estimate the contribution of the input variables to the outputs variances. The mean rate RN was estimated to 0.127 animal/animal-year with a 95% CI of (0.091, 0.163) and the mean rate RW to 11.7 kg/animal-year with a 95% CI of (8.8, 14.7), corresponding to relative variation around the mean of about ±29% and ±25%, respectively. The input variables that contributed most to the variance of RN (almost 76% of the output variance) were the calving rate, the adult female mortality rate and the female proportion in the population (determined by the pattern of the male offtake in the herds). The input variables that contributed most to the variance of RW were the same as those for RN plus the adult live weights. The CI ranges that were estimated in this article indicate that productivity rates based on literature data or expert estimations of the herd performances should be considered with caution. Research efforts based on gold-standard herd monitoring protocols accounting for temporal and spatial variations should be undertaken in future to decrease the knowledge gaps on the input variables that contribute most to these ranges.
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dig-cirad-fr-5771392024-01-28T22:49:42Z http://agritrop.cirad.fr/577139/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/577139/ Uncertainty analysis of the productivity of cattle populations in tropical drylands. Lesnoff Matthieu. 2015. Animal (Cambridge), 9 (11) : 1888-1896.https://doi.org/10.1017/S175173111500124X <https://doi.org/10.1017/S175173111500124X> Uncertainty analysis of the productivity of cattle populations in tropical drylands Lesnoff, Matthieu eng 2015 Animal (Cambridge) L01 - Élevage - Considérations générales P40 - Météorologie et climatologie U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques L52 - Physiologie animale - Croissance et développement élevage zone aride bovin troupeau domestique productivité modèle mathématique tolérance à la chaleur climat tropical taux de croissance méthode statistique http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8532 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_613 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1391 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3569 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6210 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24199 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_11486 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7973 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16130 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7377 Afrique au sud du Sahara Afrique centrale Afrique occidentale http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_166 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1432 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8355 This article presents an uncertainty analysis of the productivity of cattle herds in traditional farming systems of West and Central African drylands. The study focused on productivity rates in animal numbers (RN) and meat weights (RW) estimated from a herd growth model, which were compared with FAOSTAT-based estimates. The uncertainty analysis contained the following two steps: uncertainty propagation and a global sensitivity analysis. The analysis was based on a state-of-the-art of the current knowledge and a set of available data on the herd performances. The calculations used Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the 95% confidence intervals (CI) of RN and RW and the standardized regression coefficients method to estimate the contribution of the input variables to the outputs variances. The mean rate RN was estimated to 0.127 animal/animal-year with a 95% CI of (0.091, 0.163) and the mean rate RW to 11.7 kg/animal-year with a 95% CI of (8.8, 14.7), corresponding to relative variation around the mean of about ±29% and ±25%, respectively. The input variables that contributed most to the variance of RN (almost 76% of the output variance) were the calving rate, the adult female mortality rate and the female proportion in the population (determined by the pattern of the male offtake in the herds). The input variables that contributed most to the variance of RW were the same as those for RN plus the adult live weights. The CI ranges that were estimated in this article indicate that productivity rates based on literature data or expert estimations of the herd performances should be considered with caution. Research efforts based on gold-standard herd monitoring protocols accounting for temporal and spatial variations should be undertaken in future to decrease the knowledge gaps on the input variables that contribute most to these ranges. article info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal Article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://agritrop.cirad.fr/577139/7/577139_version_editee.pdf text cc_by_nc_nd info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ https://doi.org/10.1017/S175173111500124X 10.1017/S175173111500124X info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1017/S175173111500124X info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/purl/https://doi.org/10.1017/S175173111500124X |
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L01 - Élevage - Considérations générales P40 - Météorologie et climatologie U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques L52 - Physiologie animale - Croissance et développement élevage zone aride bovin troupeau domestique productivité modèle mathématique tolérance à la chaleur climat tropical taux de croissance méthode statistique http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8532 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_613 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1391 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3569 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6210 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24199 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_11486 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7973 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16130 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7377 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_166 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1432 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8355 L01 - Élevage - Considérations générales P40 - Météorologie et climatologie U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques L52 - Physiologie animale - Croissance et développement élevage zone aride bovin troupeau domestique productivité modèle mathématique tolérance à la chaleur climat tropical taux de croissance méthode statistique http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8532 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_613 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1391 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3569 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6210 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24199 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_11486 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7973 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16130 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7377 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_166 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1432 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8355 |
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L01 - Élevage - Considérations générales P40 - Météorologie et climatologie U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques L52 - Physiologie animale - Croissance et développement élevage zone aride bovin troupeau domestique productivité modèle mathématique tolérance à la chaleur climat tropical taux de croissance méthode statistique http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8532 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_613 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1391 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3569 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6210 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24199 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_11486 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7973 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16130 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7377 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_166 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1432 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8355 L01 - Élevage - Considérations générales P40 - Météorologie et climatologie U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques L52 - Physiologie animale - Croissance et développement élevage zone aride bovin troupeau domestique productivité modèle mathématique tolérance à la chaleur climat tropical taux de croissance méthode statistique http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8532 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_613 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1391 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3569 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6210 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24199 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_11486 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7973 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16130 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7377 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_166 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1432 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8355 Lesnoff, Matthieu Uncertainty analysis of the productivity of cattle populations in tropical drylands |
description |
This article presents an uncertainty analysis of the productivity of cattle herds in traditional farming systems of West and Central African drylands. The study focused on productivity rates in animal numbers (RN) and meat weights (RW) estimated from a herd growth model, which were compared with FAOSTAT-based estimates. The uncertainty analysis contained the following two steps: uncertainty propagation and a global sensitivity analysis. The analysis was based on a state-of-the-art of the current knowledge and a set of available data on the herd performances. The calculations used Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the 95% confidence intervals (CI) of RN and RW and the standardized regression coefficients method to estimate the contribution of the input variables to the outputs variances. The mean rate RN was estimated to 0.127 animal/animal-year with a 95% CI of (0.091, 0.163) and the mean rate RW to 11.7 kg/animal-year with a 95% CI of (8.8, 14.7), corresponding to relative variation around the mean of about ±29% and ±25%, respectively. The input variables that contributed most to the variance of RN (almost 76% of the output variance) were the calving rate, the adult female mortality rate and the female proportion in the population (determined by the pattern of the male offtake in the herds). The input variables that contributed most to the variance of RW were the same as those for RN plus the adult live weights. The CI ranges that were estimated in this article indicate that productivity rates based on literature data or expert estimations of the herd performances should be considered with caution. Research efforts based on gold-standard herd monitoring protocols accounting for temporal and spatial variations should be undertaken in future to decrease the knowledge gaps on the input variables that contribute most to these ranges. |
format |
article |
topic_facet |
L01 - Élevage - Considérations générales P40 - Météorologie et climatologie U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques L52 - Physiologie animale - Croissance et développement élevage zone aride bovin troupeau domestique productivité modèle mathématique tolérance à la chaleur climat tropical taux de croissance méthode statistique http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8532 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_613 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1391 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3569 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6210 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24199 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_11486 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7973 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16130 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7377 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_166 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1432 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8355 |
author |
Lesnoff, Matthieu |
author_facet |
Lesnoff, Matthieu |
author_sort |
Lesnoff, Matthieu |
title |
Uncertainty analysis of the productivity of cattle populations in tropical drylands |
title_short |
Uncertainty analysis of the productivity of cattle populations in tropical drylands |
title_full |
Uncertainty analysis of the productivity of cattle populations in tropical drylands |
title_fullStr |
Uncertainty analysis of the productivity of cattle populations in tropical drylands |
title_full_unstemmed |
Uncertainty analysis of the productivity of cattle populations in tropical drylands |
title_sort |
uncertainty analysis of the productivity of cattle populations in tropical drylands |
url |
http://agritrop.cirad.fr/577139/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/577139/7/577139_version_editee.pdf |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT lesnoffmatthieu uncertaintyanalysisoftheproductivityofcattlepopulationsintropicaldrylands |
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