Modelling economic and biophysical drivers of agricultural land-use change. Calibration and evaluation of the Nexus Land-Use model over 1961-2006
The central role of land-use change in the Earth System and its implications for food security, biodiversity and climate has spurred the development of global models that combine economical and agro-ecological drivers and constraints. With such a development of integrated approaches, evaluating the performance of global models of landuse against observed historical changes recorded by agricultural data becomes increasingly challenging. The Nexus Land-Use model is an example of land-use model integrating both biophysical and economical processes and constraints. This paper is an attempt to evaluate its ability to simulate historical agricultural land-use changes over 12 large but economically coherent regions of the world since 1961. The evaluation focuses on the intensification vs. extensification response of crop and livestock production in response to changes of socio-economic drivers over time, such as fertiliser price, population and diet. We examine how well the Nexus model can reproduce annual observation-based estimates of cropland vs. pasture areas from 1961 to 2006. Food trade, consumption of fertilisers and food price are also evaluated against historical data. Over the 12 regions considered, the total relative error on simulated cropland area is 2%yr?1 over 1980-2006. During the period 1961-2006, the error is larger (4%yr?1) due to an overestimation of the cropland area in China and Former Soviet Union over 1961-1980. Food prices tend to be underestimated while the performances of the trade module vary widely among regions (net imports are underestimated in Western countries at the expense of Brazil and Asia). Finally, a sensitivity analysis over a sample of input datasets provides some insights on the robustness of this evaluation.
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dig-cirad-fr-5718272024-01-28T21:48:28Z http://agritrop.cirad.fr/571827/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/571827/ Modelling economic and biophysical drivers of agricultural land-use change. Calibration and evaluation of the Nexus Land-Use model over 1961-2006. Souty François, Dorin Bruno, Brunelle Thierry, Dumas Patrice, Ciais Philippe. 2013. GeoScientific Model Development Discussions, 6 : 6975-7046.https://doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-6-6975-2013 <https://doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-6-6975-2013> Modelling economic and biophysical drivers of agricultural land-use change. Calibration and evaluation of the Nexus Land-Use model over 1961-2006 Souty, François Dorin, Bruno Brunelle, Thierry Dumas, Patrice Ciais, Philippe eng 2013 GeoScientific Model Development Discussions E11 - Économie et politique foncières U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques A01 - Agriculture - Considérations générales L01 - Élevage - Considérations générales F01 - Culture des plantes agriculture élevage utilisation des terres terre cultivée pâturages contrôle continu environnement socioéconomique modèle de simulation modèle économétrique modèle mathématique démographie prix engrais conditions météorologiques rendement des cultures http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_203 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8532 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4182 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16212 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5626 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2736 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_26824 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24242 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_10531 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24199 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_10328 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6178 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2867 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_29565 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_10176 The central role of land-use change in the Earth System and its implications for food security, biodiversity and climate has spurred the development of global models that combine economical and agro-ecological drivers and constraints. With such a development of integrated approaches, evaluating the performance of global models of landuse against observed historical changes recorded by agricultural data becomes increasingly challenging. The Nexus Land-Use model is an example of land-use model integrating both biophysical and economical processes and constraints. This paper is an attempt to evaluate its ability to simulate historical agricultural land-use changes over 12 large but economically coherent regions of the world since 1961. The evaluation focuses on the intensification vs. extensification response of crop and livestock production in response to changes of socio-economic drivers over time, such as fertiliser price, population and diet. We examine how well the Nexus model can reproduce annual observation-based estimates of cropland vs. pasture areas from 1961 to 2006. Food trade, consumption of fertilisers and food price are also evaluated against historical data. Over the 12 regions considered, the total relative error on simulated cropland area is 2%yr?1 over 1980-2006. During the period 1961-2006, the error is larger (4%yr?1) due to an overestimation of the cropland area in China and Former Soviet Union over 1961-1980. Food prices tend to be underestimated while the performances of the trade module vary widely among regions (net imports are underestimated in Western countries at the expense of Brazil and Asia). Finally, a sensitivity analysis over a sample of input datasets provides some insights on the robustness of this evaluation. article info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal Article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://agritrop.cirad.fr/571827/1/document_571827.pdf application/pdf Cirad license info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://agritrop.cirad.fr/mention_legale.html https://doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-6-6975-2013 10.5194/gmdd-6-6975-2013 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/gmdd-6-6975-2013 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/purl/https://doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-6-6975-2013 |
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E11 - Économie et politique foncières U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques A01 - Agriculture - Considérations générales L01 - Élevage - Considérations générales F01 - Culture des plantes agriculture élevage utilisation des terres terre cultivée pâturages contrôle continu environnement socioéconomique modèle de simulation modèle économétrique modèle mathématique démographie prix engrais conditions météorologiques rendement des cultures http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_203 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8532 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4182 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16212 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5626 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2736 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_26824 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24242 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_10531 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24199 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_10328 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6178 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2867 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_29565 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_10176 E11 - Économie et politique foncières U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques A01 - Agriculture - Considérations générales L01 - Élevage - Considérations générales F01 - Culture des plantes agriculture élevage utilisation des terres terre cultivée pâturages contrôle continu environnement socioéconomique modèle de simulation modèle économétrique modèle mathématique démographie prix engrais conditions météorologiques rendement des cultures http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_203 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8532 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4182 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16212 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5626 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2736 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_26824 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24242 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_10531 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24199 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_10328 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6178 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2867 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_29565 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_10176 |
spellingShingle |
E11 - Économie et politique foncières U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques A01 - Agriculture - Considérations générales L01 - Élevage - Considérations générales F01 - Culture des plantes agriculture élevage utilisation des terres terre cultivée pâturages contrôle continu environnement socioéconomique modèle de simulation modèle économétrique modèle mathématique démographie prix engrais conditions météorologiques rendement des cultures http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_203 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8532 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4182 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16212 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5626 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2736 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_26824 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24242 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_10531 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24199 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_10328 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6178 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2867 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_29565 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_10176 E11 - Économie et politique foncières U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques A01 - Agriculture - Considérations générales L01 - Élevage - Considérations générales F01 - Culture des plantes agriculture élevage utilisation des terres terre cultivée pâturages contrôle continu environnement socioéconomique modèle de simulation modèle économétrique modèle mathématique démographie prix engrais conditions météorologiques rendement des cultures http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_203 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8532 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4182 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16212 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5626 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2736 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_26824 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24242 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_10531 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24199 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_10328 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6178 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2867 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_29565 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_10176 Souty, François Dorin, Bruno Brunelle, Thierry Dumas, Patrice Ciais, Philippe Modelling economic and biophysical drivers of agricultural land-use change. Calibration and evaluation of the Nexus Land-Use model over 1961-2006 |
description |
The central role of land-use change in the Earth System and its implications for food security, biodiversity and climate has spurred the development of global models that combine economical and agro-ecological drivers and constraints. With such a development of integrated approaches, evaluating the performance of global models of landuse against observed historical changes recorded by agricultural data becomes increasingly challenging. The Nexus Land-Use model is an example of land-use model integrating both biophysical and economical processes and constraints. This paper is an attempt to evaluate its ability to simulate historical agricultural land-use changes over 12 large but economically coherent regions of the world since 1961. The evaluation focuses on the intensification vs. extensification response of crop and livestock production in response to changes of socio-economic drivers over time, such as fertiliser price, population and diet. We examine how well the Nexus model can reproduce annual observation-based estimates of cropland vs. pasture areas from 1961 to 2006. Food trade, consumption of fertilisers and food price are also evaluated against historical data. Over the 12 regions considered, the total relative error on simulated cropland area is 2%yr?1 over 1980-2006. During the period 1961-2006, the error is larger (4%yr?1) due to an overestimation of the cropland area in China and Former Soviet Union over 1961-1980. Food prices tend to be underestimated while the performances of the trade module vary widely among regions (net imports are underestimated in Western countries at the expense of Brazil and Asia). Finally, a sensitivity analysis over a sample of input datasets provides some insights on the robustness of this evaluation. |
format |
article |
topic_facet |
E11 - Économie et politique foncières U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques A01 - Agriculture - Considérations générales L01 - Élevage - Considérations générales F01 - Culture des plantes agriculture élevage utilisation des terres terre cultivée pâturages contrôle continu environnement socioéconomique modèle de simulation modèle économétrique modèle mathématique démographie prix engrais conditions météorologiques rendement des cultures http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_203 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8532 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4182 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16212 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5626 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2736 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_26824 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24242 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_10531 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24199 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_10328 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6178 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2867 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_29565 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_10176 |
author |
Souty, François Dorin, Bruno Brunelle, Thierry Dumas, Patrice Ciais, Philippe |
author_facet |
Souty, François Dorin, Bruno Brunelle, Thierry Dumas, Patrice Ciais, Philippe |
author_sort |
Souty, François |
title |
Modelling economic and biophysical drivers of agricultural land-use change. Calibration and evaluation of the Nexus Land-Use model over 1961-2006 |
title_short |
Modelling economic and biophysical drivers of agricultural land-use change. Calibration and evaluation of the Nexus Land-Use model over 1961-2006 |
title_full |
Modelling economic and biophysical drivers of agricultural land-use change. Calibration and evaluation of the Nexus Land-Use model over 1961-2006 |
title_fullStr |
Modelling economic and biophysical drivers of agricultural land-use change. Calibration and evaluation of the Nexus Land-Use model over 1961-2006 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modelling economic and biophysical drivers of agricultural land-use change. Calibration and evaluation of the Nexus Land-Use model over 1961-2006 |
title_sort |
modelling economic and biophysical drivers of agricultural land-use change. calibration and evaluation of the nexus land-use model over 1961-2006 |
url |
http://agritrop.cirad.fr/571827/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/571827/1/document_571827.pdf |
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