Modeling potential equilibrium states of vegetation and terrestrial water cycle of Mesoamerica under climate change scenarios
The likelihood and magnitude of the impacts of climate change on potential vegetation and the water cycle in Mesoamerica is evaluated. Mesoamerica is a global biodiversity hotspot with highly diverse topographic and climatic conditions and is among the tropical regions with the highest expected changes in precipitation and temperature under future climate scenarios. The biogeographic soil-vegetation-atmosphere model Mapped Atmosphere Plant Soil System (MAPSS) was used for simulating the integrated changes in leaf area index (LAI), vegetation types (grass, shrubs, and trees), evapotranspiration, and runoff at the end of the twenty-first century. Uncertainty was estimated as the likelihood of changes in vegetation and water cycle under three ensembles of model runs, one for each of the groups of greenhouse gas emission scenarios (low, intermediate, and high emissions), for a total of 136 runs generated with 23 general circulation models (GCMs). LAI is likely to decrease over 77%-89% of the region, depending on climate scenario groups, showing that potential vegetation will likely shift from humid to dry types. Accounting for potential effects of CO2 on water use efficiency significantly decreased impacts on LAI. Runoff will decrease across the region even in areas where precipitation increases (even under increased water use efficiency), as temperature change will increase evapotranspiration. Higher emission scenarios show lower uncertainty (higher likelihood) in modeled impacts. Although the projection spread is high for future precipitation, the impacts of climate change on vegetation and water cycle are predicted with relatively low uncertainty.
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dig-cirad-fr-564902 |
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CIRAD FR |
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Francia |
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Bibliográfico |
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Europa del Oeste |
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Biblioteca del CIRAD Francia |
language |
eng |
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F60 - Physiologie et biochimie végétale U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques B10 - Géographie P40 - Météorologie et climatologie P01 - Conservation de la nature et ressources foncières changement climatique cycle hydrologique impact sur l'environnement modèle de simulation modèle mathématique relevé (des données) relation plante sol relation plante eau ruissellement surface foliaire évapotranspiration précipitation température gaz à effet de serre végétation http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_11670 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24420 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24242 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24199 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7536 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16146 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16147 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_35388 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16110 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2741 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6161 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7657 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_34841 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8176 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1434 F60 - Physiologie et biochimie végétale U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques B10 - Géographie P40 - Météorologie et climatologie P01 - Conservation de la nature et ressources foncières changement climatique cycle hydrologique impact sur l'environnement modèle de simulation modèle mathématique relevé (des données) relation plante sol relation plante eau ruissellement surface foliaire évapotranspiration précipitation température gaz à effet de serre végétation http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_11670 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24420 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24242 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24199 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7536 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16146 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16147 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_35388 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16110 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2741 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6161 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7657 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_34841 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8176 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1434 |
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F60 - Physiologie et biochimie végétale U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques B10 - Géographie P40 - Météorologie et climatologie P01 - Conservation de la nature et ressources foncières changement climatique cycle hydrologique impact sur l'environnement modèle de simulation modèle mathématique relevé (des données) relation plante sol relation plante eau ruissellement surface foliaire évapotranspiration précipitation température gaz à effet de serre végétation http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_11670 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24420 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24242 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24199 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7536 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16146 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16147 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_35388 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16110 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2741 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6161 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7657 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_34841 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8176 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1434 F60 - Physiologie et biochimie végétale U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques B10 - Géographie P40 - Météorologie et climatologie P01 - Conservation de la nature et ressources foncières changement climatique cycle hydrologique impact sur l'environnement modèle de simulation modèle mathématique relevé (des données) relation plante sol relation plante eau ruissellement surface foliaire évapotranspiration précipitation température gaz à effet de serre végétation http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_11670 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24420 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24242 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24199 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7536 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16146 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16147 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_35388 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16110 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2741 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6161 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7657 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_34841 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8176 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1434 Imbach, Pablo Molina, Luis Guillermo Locatelli, Bruno Roupsard, Olivier Mahé, Gil Neilson, Ronald Corrales, Lenin Scholze, Marko Ciais, Philippe Modeling potential equilibrium states of vegetation and terrestrial water cycle of Mesoamerica under climate change scenarios |
description |
The likelihood and magnitude of the impacts of climate change on potential vegetation and the water cycle in Mesoamerica is evaluated. Mesoamerica is a global biodiversity hotspot with highly diverse topographic and climatic conditions and is among the tropical regions with the highest expected changes in precipitation and temperature under future climate scenarios. The biogeographic soil-vegetation-atmosphere model Mapped Atmosphere Plant Soil System (MAPSS) was used for simulating the integrated changes in leaf area index (LAI), vegetation types (grass, shrubs, and trees), evapotranspiration, and runoff at the end of the twenty-first century. Uncertainty was estimated as the likelihood of changes in vegetation and water cycle under three ensembles of model runs, one for each of the groups of greenhouse gas emission scenarios (low, intermediate, and high emissions), for a total of 136 runs generated with 23 general circulation models (GCMs). LAI is likely to decrease over 77%-89% of the region, depending on climate scenario groups, showing that potential vegetation will likely shift from humid to dry types. Accounting for potential effects of CO2 on water use efficiency significantly decreased impacts on LAI. Runoff will decrease across the region even in areas where precipitation increases (even under increased water use efficiency), as temperature change will increase evapotranspiration. Higher emission scenarios show lower uncertainty (higher likelihood) in modeled impacts. Although the projection spread is high for future precipitation, the impacts of climate change on vegetation and water cycle are predicted with relatively low uncertainty. |
format |
article |
topic_facet |
F60 - Physiologie et biochimie végétale U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques B10 - Géographie P40 - Météorologie et climatologie P01 - Conservation de la nature et ressources foncières changement climatique cycle hydrologique impact sur l'environnement modèle de simulation modèle mathématique relevé (des données) relation plante sol relation plante eau ruissellement surface foliaire évapotranspiration précipitation température gaz à effet de serre végétation http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_11670 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24420 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24242 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24199 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7536 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16146 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16147 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_35388 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16110 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2741 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6161 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7657 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_34841 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8176 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1434 |
author |
Imbach, Pablo Molina, Luis Guillermo Locatelli, Bruno Roupsard, Olivier Mahé, Gil Neilson, Ronald Corrales, Lenin Scholze, Marko Ciais, Philippe |
author_facet |
Imbach, Pablo Molina, Luis Guillermo Locatelli, Bruno Roupsard, Olivier Mahé, Gil Neilson, Ronald Corrales, Lenin Scholze, Marko Ciais, Philippe |
author_sort |
Imbach, Pablo |
title |
Modeling potential equilibrium states of vegetation and terrestrial water cycle of Mesoamerica under climate change scenarios |
title_short |
Modeling potential equilibrium states of vegetation and terrestrial water cycle of Mesoamerica under climate change scenarios |
title_full |
Modeling potential equilibrium states of vegetation and terrestrial water cycle of Mesoamerica under climate change scenarios |
title_fullStr |
Modeling potential equilibrium states of vegetation and terrestrial water cycle of Mesoamerica under climate change scenarios |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modeling potential equilibrium states of vegetation and terrestrial water cycle of Mesoamerica under climate change scenarios |
title_sort |
modeling potential equilibrium states of vegetation and terrestrial water cycle of mesoamerica under climate change scenarios |
url |
http://agritrop.cirad.fr/564902/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/564902/1/document_564902.pdf |
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dig-cirad-fr-5649022024-01-28T20:36:26Z http://agritrop.cirad.fr/564902/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/564902/ Modeling potential equilibrium states of vegetation and terrestrial water cycle of Mesoamerica under climate change scenarios. Imbach Pablo, Molina Luis Guillermo, Locatelli Bruno, Roupsard Olivier, Mahé Gil, Neilson Ronald, Corrales Lenin, Scholze Marko, Ciais Philippe. 2012. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 13 (2) : 665-680.https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-11-023.1 <https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-11-023.1> Modeling potential equilibrium states of vegetation and terrestrial water cycle of Mesoamerica under climate change scenarios Imbach, Pablo Molina, Luis Guillermo Locatelli, Bruno Roupsard, Olivier Mahé, Gil Neilson, Ronald Corrales, Lenin Scholze, Marko Ciais, Philippe eng 2012 Journal of Hydrometeorology F60 - Physiologie et biochimie végétale U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques B10 - Géographie P40 - Météorologie et climatologie P01 - Conservation de la nature et ressources foncières changement climatique cycle hydrologique impact sur l'environnement modèle de simulation modèle mathématique relevé (des données) relation plante sol relation plante eau ruissellement surface foliaire évapotranspiration précipitation température gaz à effet de serre végétation http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_11670 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24420 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24242 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24199 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7536 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16146 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16147 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_35388 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16110 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2741 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6161 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7657 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_34841 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8176 Amérique centrale http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1434 The likelihood and magnitude of the impacts of climate change on potential vegetation and the water cycle in Mesoamerica is evaluated. Mesoamerica is a global biodiversity hotspot with highly diverse topographic and climatic conditions and is among the tropical regions with the highest expected changes in precipitation and temperature under future climate scenarios. The biogeographic soil-vegetation-atmosphere model Mapped Atmosphere Plant Soil System (MAPSS) was used for simulating the integrated changes in leaf area index (LAI), vegetation types (grass, shrubs, and trees), evapotranspiration, and runoff at the end of the twenty-first century. Uncertainty was estimated as the likelihood of changes in vegetation and water cycle under three ensembles of model runs, one for each of the groups of greenhouse gas emission scenarios (low, intermediate, and high emissions), for a total of 136 runs generated with 23 general circulation models (GCMs). LAI is likely to decrease over 77%-89% of the region, depending on climate scenario groups, showing that potential vegetation will likely shift from humid to dry types. Accounting for potential effects of CO2 on water use efficiency significantly decreased impacts on LAI. Runoff will decrease across the region even in areas where precipitation increases (even under increased water use efficiency), as temperature change will increase evapotranspiration. Higher emission scenarios show lower uncertainty (higher likelihood) in modeled impacts. Although the projection spread is high for future precipitation, the impacts of climate change on vegetation and water cycle are predicted with relatively low uncertainty. article info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal Article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://agritrop.cirad.fr/564902/1/document_564902.pdf application/pdf Cirad license info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess https://agritrop.cirad.fr/mention_legale.html https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-11-023.1 10.1175/JHM-D-11-023.1 http://catalogue-bibliotheques.cirad.fr/cgi-bin/koha/opac-detail.pl?biblionumber=13156 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/JHM-D-11-023.1 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/purl/https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-11-023.1 |