Positive effects of climate change on rice in Madagascar
Food security in many countries is threatened due to rapid population growth. Rising temperatures and carbon dioxide, rainfall irregularity, and global warming may have serious consequences on rice production and hence food security. However, there is limited knowledge on the precise effects of global warming on crops, in particular on rice which is a major staple crop and contributor to food security. Most reports have focused on irrigated rice in India or China but much less is known about rainfed rice cropping systems in Madagascar. In the Malagasy highlands, the most populated part of Madagascar, land pressure has led to saturation of irrigated lands and the adoption of rainfed cropping systems on hilltops. The present article reports the impact of various climate changes on rice productivity in four cropping systems using the CERES-Rice model. The cropping systems include two tillages components, hand-plowed and no-tillage, and two fertilization rates: low and high nitrogen. A locally adapted rice cultivar was calibrated and validated using a dataset based on experiments conducted over a 6-year period. Daily weather data were generated for a set of 90 virtual years, from 2010 to 2099. Our results show that no-tillage systems have no advantage for climate change issues. Nitrogen was a major constraint for crops in hand-plowed and no-tillage systems. We found negative effects of climate change on soil carbon and nitrogen. By contrast, we found positive effects of temperature and increased CO2 on rice growth. The overall effects on rice yields are positive under the most pessimistic climate change scenarios but we demonstrate that the sustainability of these systems is threatened.
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Subjects: | P40 - Météorologie et climatologie, F08 - Systèmes et modes de culture, Oryza, riz pluvial, système de culture, prévision de rendement, modélisation des cultures, changement climatique, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5435, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8076, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1971, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8486, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_9000024, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4510, |
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dig-cirad-fr-5647502024-02-16T19:02:43Z http://agritrop.cirad.fr/564750/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/564750/ Positive effects of climate change on rice in Madagascar. Gérardeaux Edward, Giner Michel, Ramanantsoanirina Alain, Dusserre Julie. 2012. Agronomy for Sustainable Development, 32 (3) : 619-627.https://doi.org/10.1007/s13593-011-0049-6 <https://doi.org/10.1007/s13593-011-0049-6> Positive effects of climate change on rice in Madagascar Gérardeaux, Edward Giner, Michel Ramanantsoanirina, Alain Dusserre, Julie eng 2012 Agronomy for Sustainable Development P40 - Météorologie et climatologie F08 - Systèmes et modes de culture Oryza riz pluvial système de culture prévision de rendement modélisation des cultures changement climatique http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5435 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8076 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1971 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8486 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_9000024 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 Madagascar http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4510 Food security in many countries is threatened due to rapid population growth. Rising temperatures and carbon dioxide, rainfall irregularity, and global warming may have serious consequences on rice production and hence food security. However, there is limited knowledge on the precise effects of global warming on crops, in particular on rice which is a major staple crop and contributor to food security. Most reports have focused on irrigated rice in India or China but much less is known about rainfed rice cropping systems in Madagascar. In the Malagasy highlands, the most populated part of Madagascar, land pressure has led to saturation of irrigated lands and the adoption of rainfed cropping systems on hilltops. The present article reports the impact of various climate changes on rice productivity in four cropping systems using the CERES-Rice model. The cropping systems include two tillages components, hand-plowed and no-tillage, and two fertilization rates: low and high nitrogen. A locally adapted rice cultivar was calibrated and validated using a dataset based on experiments conducted over a 6-year period. Daily weather data were generated for a set of 90 virtual years, from 2010 to 2099. Our results show that no-tillage systems have no advantage for climate change issues. Nitrogen was a major constraint for crops in hand-plowed and no-tillage systems. We found negative effects of climate change on soil carbon and nitrogen. By contrast, we found positive effects of temperature and increased CO2 on rice growth. The overall effects on rice yields are positive under the most pessimistic climate change scenarios but we demonstrate that the sustainability of these systems is threatened. article info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal Article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://agritrop.cirad.fr/564750/1/document_564750.pdf application/pdf Cirad license info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess https://agritrop.cirad.fr/mention_legale.html https://doi.org/10.1007/s13593-011-0049-6 10.1007/s13593-011-0049-6 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s13593-011-0049-6 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/purl/https://doi.org/10.1007/s13593-011-0049-6 |
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P40 - Météorologie et climatologie F08 - Systèmes et modes de culture Oryza riz pluvial système de culture prévision de rendement modélisation des cultures changement climatique http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5435 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8076 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1971 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8486 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_9000024 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4510 P40 - Météorologie et climatologie F08 - Systèmes et modes de culture Oryza riz pluvial système de culture prévision de rendement modélisation des cultures changement climatique http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5435 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8076 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1971 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8486 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_9000024 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4510 |
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P40 - Météorologie et climatologie F08 - Systèmes et modes de culture Oryza riz pluvial système de culture prévision de rendement modélisation des cultures changement climatique http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5435 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8076 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1971 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8486 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_9000024 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4510 P40 - Météorologie et climatologie F08 - Systèmes et modes de culture Oryza riz pluvial système de culture prévision de rendement modélisation des cultures changement climatique http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5435 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8076 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1971 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8486 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_9000024 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4510 Gérardeaux, Edward Giner, Michel Ramanantsoanirina, Alain Dusserre, Julie Positive effects of climate change on rice in Madagascar |
description |
Food security in many countries is threatened due to rapid population growth. Rising temperatures and carbon dioxide, rainfall irregularity, and global warming may have serious consequences on rice production and hence food security. However, there is limited knowledge on the precise effects of global warming on crops, in particular on rice which is a major staple crop and contributor to food security. Most reports have focused on irrigated rice in India or China but much less is known about rainfed rice cropping systems in Madagascar. In the Malagasy highlands, the most populated part of Madagascar, land pressure has led to saturation of irrigated lands and the adoption of rainfed cropping systems on hilltops. The present article reports the impact of various climate changes on rice productivity in four cropping systems using the CERES-Rice model. The cropping systems include two tillages components, hand-plowed and no-tillage, and two fertilization rates: low and high nitrogen. A locally adapted rice cultivar was calibrated and validated using a dataset based on experiments conducted over a 6-year period. Daily weather data were generated for a set of 90 virtual years, from 2010 to 2099. Our results show that no-tillage systems have no advantage for climate change issues. Nitrogen was a major constraint for crops in hand-plowed and no-tillage systems. We found negative effects of climate change on soil carbon and nitrogen. By contrast, we found positive effects of temperature and increased CO2 on rice growth. The overall effects on rice yields are positive under the most pessimistic climate change scenarios but we demonstrate that the sustainability of these systems is threatened. |
format |
article |
topic_facet |
P40 - Météorologie et climatologie F08 - Systèmes et modes de culture Oryza riz pluvial système de culture prévision de rendement modélisation des cultures changement climatique http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5435 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8076 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1971 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8486 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_9000024 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4510 |
author |
Gérardeaux, Edward Giner, Michel Ramanantsoanirina, Alain Dusserre, Julie |
author_facet |
Gérardeaux, Edward Giner, Michel Ramanantsoanirina, Alain Dusserre, Julie |
author_sort |
Gérardeaux, Edward |
title |
Positive effects of climate change on rice in Madagascar |
title_short |
Positive effects of climate change on rice in Madagascar |
title_full |
Positive effects of climate change on rice in Madagascar |
title_fullStr |
Positive effects of climate change on rice in Madagascar |
title_full_unstemmed |
Positive effects of climate change on rice in Madagascar |
title_sort |
positive effects of climate change on rice in madagascar |
url |
http://agritrop.cirad.fr/564750/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/564750/1/document_564750.pdf |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT gerardeauxedward positiveeffectsofclimatechangeonriceinmadagascar AT ginermichel positiveeffectsofclimatechangeonriceinmadagascar AT ramanantsoanirinaalain positiveeffectsofclimatechangeonriceinmadagascar AT dusserrejulie positiveeffectsofclimatechangeonriceinmadagascar |
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