Exploring causal pathways in demographic parameter variation: path analysis of mark-recapture data
1. Inference about demographic parameters of animal and plant natural populations is important to evaluate the consequences of global changes on populations. Investigating the factors driving their variation over space and time allows evaluating the relative importance of biotic and abiotic variables in shaping the dynamics of a population. Although numerous studies have identified the factors possibly affecting population dynamics, they have barely formally determined the routes by which these different factors are related to demographic parameters. 2. We focus on mark-recapture (MR) models that provide unbiased estimators of demographic parameters, while explicitly coping with imperfect detection inherent to wild populations.MRmodels allow estimating the effect of covariates on demographic parameters and testing their significance in a regression-like framework. However, these models can only detect correlations and do not inform on causal pathways (e.g. direct vs. indirect effects) in the relationships between demographic parameters and the factors possibly explaining their variability. 3. We develop an integrated model to perform path analysis (PA) of MR data, to examine causal relationships among several (including demographic) variables. This approach is implemented in a Bayesian framework usingMarkov chain Monte Carlo. 4. To motivate our developments, we analyse 17 years of mark-recapture data from Atlantic puffins (Fratercula arctica), to investigate the mechanisms through which environmental conditions have an impact on puffins' adult survival. Using our PA-based MR modelling approach, we found that local climatic conditions had an indirect and lagged impact on puffin survival through their influence on local abundance of herring. Besides, we found no evidence for any lagged effect through an alternative unknown pathway (e.g. abundance of another resource). 5. Our method allows elucidating pathways through which environmental, trophic or densitydependent factors influence demographic parameters, while accounting for detectability <1. This is a critical step to understand the interactions of a species with its environment and to predict the impacts of global change on its viability.
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Subjects: | U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques, L20 - Écologie animale, dynamique des populations, écologie animale, capture animale, modèle, changement climatique, impact sur l'environnement, étude de cas, oiseau aquatique, Clupea harengus, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6111, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_427, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24105, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4881, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24420, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24392, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8331, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1682, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5234, |
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dig-cirad-fr-5646562024-01-28T20:32:27Z http://agritrop.cirad.fr/564656/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/564656/ Exploring causal pathways in demographic parameter variation: path analysis of mark-recapture data. Gimenez Olivier, Anker-Nilssen Tycho, Grosbois Vladimir. 2012. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 3 (2) : 427-432.https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2041-210X.2011.00150.x <https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2041-210X.2011.00150.x> Exploring causal pathways in demographic parameter variation: path analysis of mark-recapture data Gimenez, Olivier Anker-Nilssen, Tycho Grosbois, Vladimir eng 2012 Methods in Ecology and Evolution U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques L20 - Écologie animale dynamique des populations écologie animale capture animale modèle changement climatique impact sur l'environnement étude de cas oiseau aquatique Clupea harengus http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6111 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_427 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24105 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4881 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24420 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24392 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8331 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1682 Norvège http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5234 1. Inference about demographic parameters of animal and plant natural populations is important to evaluate the consequences of global changes on populations. Investigating the factors driving their variation over space and time allows evaluating the relative importance of biotic and abiotic variables in shaping the dynamics of a population. Although numerous studies have identified the factors possibly affecting population dynamics, they have barely formally determined the routes by which these different factors are related to demographic parameters. 2. We focus on mark-recapture (MR) models that provide unbiased estimators of demographic parameters, while explicitly coping with imperfect detection inherent to wild populations.MRmodels allow estimating the effect of covariates on demographic parameters and testing their significance in a regression-like framework. However, these models can only detect correlations and do not inform on causal pathways (e.g. direct vs. indirect effects) in the relationships between demographic parameters and the factors possibly explaining their variability. 3. We develop an integrated model to perform path analysis (PA) of MR data, to examine causal relationships among several (including demographic) variables. This approach is implemented in a Bayesian framework usingMarkov chain Monte Carlo. 4. To motivate our developments, we analyse 17 years of mark-recapture data from Atlantic puffins (Fratercula arctica), to investigate the mechanisms through which environmental conditions have an impact on puffins' adult survival. Using our PA-based MR modelling approach, we found that local climatic conditions had an indirect and lagged impact on puffin survival through their influence on local abundance of herring. Besides, we found no evidence for any lagged effect through an alternative unknown pathway (e.g. abundance of another resource). 5. Our method allows elucidating pathways through which environmental, trophic or densitydependent factors influence demographic parameters, while accounting for detectability <1. This is a critical step to understand the interactions of a species with its environment and to predict the impacts of global change on its viability. article info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal Article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://agritrop.cirad.fr/564656/1/document_564656.pdf application/pdf Cirad license info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess https://agritrop.cirad.fr/mention_legale.html https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2041-210X.2011.00150.x 10.1111/j.2041-210X.2011.00150.x http://catalogue-bibliotheques.cirad.fr/cgi-bin/koha/opac-detail.pl?biblionumber=214913 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1111/j.2041-210X.2011.00150.x info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/purl/https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2041-210X.2011.00150.x |
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U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques L20 - Écologie animale dynamique des populations écologie animale capture animale modèle changement climatique impact sur l'environnement étude de cas oiseau aquatique Clupea harengus http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6111 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_427 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24105 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4881 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24420 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24392 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8331 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1682 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5234 U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques L20 - Écologie animale dynamique des populations écologie animale capture animale modèle changement climatique impact sur l'environnement étude de cas oiseau aquatique Clupea harengus http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6111 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_427 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24105 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4881 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24420 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24392 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8331 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1682 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5234 |
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U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques L20 - Écologie animale dynamique des populations écologie animale capture animale modèle changement climatique impact sur l'environnement étude de cas oiseau aquatique Clupea harengus http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6111 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_427 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24105 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4881 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24420 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24392 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8331 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1682 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5234 U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques L20 - Écologie animale dynamique des populations écologie animale capture animale modèle changement climatique impact sur l'environnement étude de cas oiseau aquatique Clupea harengus http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6111 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_427 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24105 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4881 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24420 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24392 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8331 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1682 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5234 Gimenez, Olivier Anker-Nilssen, Tycho Grosbois, Vladimir Exploring causal pathways in demographic parameter variation: path analysis of mark-recapture data |
description |
1. Inference about demographic parameters of animal and plant natural populations is important to evaluate the consequences of global changes on populations. Investigating the factors driving their variation over space and time allows evaluating the relative importance of biotic and abiotic variables in shaping the dynamics of a population. Although numerous studies have identified the factors possibly affecting population dynamics, they have barely formally determined the routes by which these different factors are related to demographic parameters. 2. We focus on mark-recapture (MR) models that provide unbiased estimators of demographic parameters, while explicitly coping with imperfect detection inherent to wild populations.MRmodels allow estimating the effect of covariates on demographic parameters and testing their significance in a regression-like framework. However, these models can only detect correlations and do not inform on causal pathways (e.g. direct vs. indirect effects) in the relationships between demographic parameters and the factors possibly explaining their variability. 3. We develop an integrated model to perform path analysis (PA) of MR data, to examine causal relationships among several (including demographic) variables. This approach is implemented in a Bayesian framework usingMarkov chain Monte Carlo. 4. To motivate our developments, we analyse 17 years of mark-recapture data from Atlantic puffins (Fratercula arctica), to investigate the mechanisms through which environmental conditions have an impact on puffins' adult survival. Using our PA-based MR modelling approach, we found that local climatic conditions had an indirect and lagged impact on puffin survival through their influence on local abundance of herring. Besides, we found no evidence for any lagged effect through an alternative unknown pathway (e.g. abundance of another resource). 5. Our method allows elucidating pathways through which environmental, trophic or densitydependent factors influence demographic parameters, while accounting for detectability <1. This is a critical step to understand the interactions of a species with its environment and to predict the impacts of global change on its viability. |
format |
article |
topic_facet |
U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques L20 - Écologie animale dynamique des populations écologie animale capture animale modèle changement climatique impact sur l'environnement étude de cas oiseau aquatique Clupea harengus http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6111 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_427 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24105 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4881 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24420 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24392 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8331 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1682 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5234 |
author |
Gimenez, Olivier Anker-Nilssen, Tycho Grosbois, Vladimir |
author_facet |
Gimenez, Olivier Anker-Nilssen, Tycho Grosbois, Vladimir |
author_sort |
Gimenez, Olivier |
title |
Exploring causal pathways in demographic parameter variation: path analysis of mark-recapture data |
title_short |
Exploring causal pathways in demographic parameter variation: path analysis of mark-recapture data |
title_full |
Exploring causal pathways in demographic parameter variation: path analysis of mark-recapture data |
title_fullStr |
Exploring causal pathways in demographic parameter variation: path analysis of mark-recapture data |
title_full_unstemmed |
Exploring causal pathways in demographic parameter variation: path analysis of mark-recapture data |
title_sort |
exploring causal pathways in demographic parameter variation: path analysis of mark-recapture data |
url |
http://agritrop.cirad.fr/564656/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/564656/1/document_564656.pdf |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT gimenezolivier exploringcausalpathwaysindemographicparametervariationpathanalysisofmarkrecapturedata AT ankernilssentycho exploringcausalpathwaysindemographicparametervariationpathanalysisofmarkrecapturedata AT grosboisvladimir exploringcausalpathwaysindemographicparametervariationpathanalysisofmarkrecapturedata |
_version_ |
1792498215447166976 |