Optimal search in ex situ collections of wheat genetic resources
This paper develops a theoretical model for analyzing gene bank management decisions regarding the search for traits of economic value in ex situ collections of wheat. The model is applied to data on the probability of finding useful sources of resistance to Russian wheat aphid (Diuraphis noxia) and septoria tritici leaf blotch, using Monte Carlo simulations for sampling distributions, simulations of varietal diffusion paths, and actual cost data from searches. Three specific questions are posed and answered: (1) what is the optimal size of search among genetic resources of a given type for a trait of economic value? (2) what is the value of specialized knowledge about which genetic resources are most likely to display resistance? and (3) how should search resources be allocated across types of genetic resources? Results demonstrate the sensitivity of the optimal size of search to the economic importance of the problem, the probability distributions of the trait in different types of genetic resources, and the cost and time lags associated with transferring the trait into usable breeding material. The cost and time lags involved with conventional pre-breeding techniques imply that in some searches, certain categories of genetic resources (such as landraces) will be systematically ignored. The fact that they may be rarely utilized does not imply that collections of landraces have no value, however, as shown in the case of Russian wheat aphid. Though applied here to data on insect and disease resistance, the model can be adapted to search decisions for other types of traits.
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Format: | Book biblioteca |
Language: | English |
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CIMMYT
1998
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Subjects: | AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND BIOTECHNOLOGY, CIMMYT, WHEAT, GENETIC RESOURCES, GERMPLASM, GERMPLASM CONSERVATION, GENE BANKS, GENE POOLS, MANAGEMENT, COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS, ECONOMIC ANALYSIS, SIMULATION MODELS, STATISTICAL METHODS, PLANT BREEDING, PEST RESISTANCE, APHIDOIDEA, DISEASE RESISTANCE, LEAF BLOTCH, |
Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10883/958 |
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dig-cimmyt-10883-9582021-02-09T18:25:21Z Optimal search in ex situ collections of wheat genetic resources Gollin, D. Smale, M. Skovmand, B. AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND BIOTECHNOLOGY CIMMYT WHEAT GENETIC RESOURCES GERMPLASM GERMPLASM CONSERVATION GENE BANKS GENE POOLS MANAGEMENT COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS ECONOMIC ANALYSIS SIMULATION MODELS STATISTICAL METHODS PLANT BREEDING PEST RESISTANCE APHIDOIDEA DISEASE RESISTANCE LEAF BLOTCH This paper develops a theoretical model for analyzing gene bank management decisions regarding the search for traits of economic value in ex situ collections of wheat. The model is applied to data on the probability of finding useful sources of resistance to Russian wheat aphid (Diuraphis noxia) and septoria tritici leaf blotch, using Monte Carlo simulations for sampling distributions, simulations of varietal diffusion paths, and actual cost data from searches. Three specific questions are posed and answered: (1) what is the optimal size of search among genetic resources of a given type for a trait of economic value? (2) what is the value of specialized knowledge about which genetic resources are most likely to display resistance? and (3) how should search resources be allocated across types of genetic resources? Results demonstrate the sensitivity of the optimal size of search to the economic importance of the problem, the probability distributions of the trait in different types of genetic resources, and the cost and time lags associated with transferring the trait into usable breeding material. The cost and time lags involved with conventional pre-breeding techniques imply that in some searches, certain categories of genetic resources (such as landraces) will be systematically ignored. The fact that they may be rarely utilized does not imply that collections of landraces have no value, however, as shown in the case of Russian wheat aphid. Though applied here to data on insect and disease resistance, the model can be adapted to search decisions for other types of traits. 34 pages 2012-01-06T05:08:31Z 2012-01-06T05:08:31Z 1998 Book 0258-8587 http://hdl.handle.net/10883/958 English CIMMYT Economics Working Paper CIMMYT manages Intellectual Assets as International Public Goods. The user is free to download, print, store and share this work. In case you want to translate or create any other derivative work and share or distribute such translation/derivative work, please contact CIMMYT-Knowledge-Center@cgiar.org indicating the work you want to use and the kind of use you intend; CIMMYT will contact you with the suitable license for that purpose. Open Access PDF Mexico CIMMYT |
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AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND BIOTECHNOLOGY CIMMYT WHEAT GENETIC RESOURCES GERMPLASM GERMPLASM CONSERVATION GENE BANKS GENE POOLS MANAGEMENT COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS ECONOMIC ANALYSIS SIMULATION MODELS STATISTICAL METHODS PLANT BREEDING PEST RESISTANCE APHIDOIDEA DISEASE RESISTANCE LEAF BLOTCH AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND BIOTECHNOLOGY CIMMYT WHEAT GENETIC RESOURCES GERMPLASM GERMPLASM CONSERVATION GENE BANKS GENE POOLS MANAGEMENT COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS ECONOMIC ANALYSIS SIMULATION MODELS STATISTICAL METHODS PLANT BREEDING PEST RESISTANCE APHIDOIDEA DISEASE RESISTANCE LEAF BLOTCH |
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AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND BIOTECHNOLOGY CIMMYT WHEAT GENETIC RESOURCES GERMPLASM GERMPLASM CONSERVATION GENE BANKS GENE POOLS MANAGEMENT COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS ECONOMIC ANALYSIS SIMULATION MODELS STATISTICAL METHODS PLANT BREEDING PEST RESISTANCE APHIDOIDEA DISEASE RESISTANCE LEAF BLOTCH AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND BIOTECHNOLOGY CIMMYT WHEAT GENETIC RESOURCES GERMPLASM GERMPLASM CONSERVATION GENE BANKS GENE POOLS MANAGEMENT COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS ECONOMIC ANALYSIS SIMULATION MODELS STATISTICAL METHODS PLANT BREEDING PEST RESISTANCE APHIDOIDEA DISEASE RESISTANCE LEAF BLOTCH Gollin, D. Smale, M. Skovmand, B. Optimal search in ex situ collections of wheat genetic resources |
description |
This paper develops a theoretical model for analyzing gene bank management decisions regarding the search for traits of economic value in ex situ collections of wheat. The model is applied to data on the probability of finding useful sources of resistance to Russian wheat aphid (Diuraphis noxia) and septoria tritici leaf blotch, using Monte Carlo simulations for sampling distributions, simulations of varietal diffusion paths, and actual cost data from searches. Three specific questions are posed and answered: (1) what is the optimal size of search among genetic resources of a given type for a trait of economic value? (2) what is the value of specialized knowledge about which genetic resources are most likely to display resistance? and (3) how should search resources be allocated across types of genetic resources? Results demonstrate the sensitivity of the optimal size of search to the economic importance of the problem, the probability distributions of the trait in different types of genetic resources, and the cost and time lags associated with transferring the trait into usable breeding material. The cost and time lags involved with conventional pre-breeding techniques imply that in some searches, certain categories of genetic resources (such as landraces) will be systematically ignored. The fact that they may be rarely utilized does not imply that collections of landraces have no value, however, as shown in the case of Russian wheat aphid. Though applied here to data on insect and disease resistance, the model can be adapted to search decisions for other types of traits. |
format |
Book |
topic_facet |
AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND BIOTECHNOLOGY CIMMYT WHEAT GENETIC RESOURCES GERMPLASM GERMPLASM CONSERVATION GENE BANKS GENE POOLS MANAGEMENT COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS ECONOMIC ANALYSIS SIMULATION MODELS STATISTICAL METHODS PLANT BREEDING PEST RESISTANCE APHIDOIDEA DISEASE RESISTANCE LEAF BLOTCH |
author |
Gollin, D. Smale, M. Skovmand, B. |
author_facet |
Gollin, D. Smale, M. Skovmand, B. |
author_sort |
Gollin, D. |
title |
Optimal search in ex situ collections of wheat genetic resources |
title_short |
Optimal search in ex situ collections of wheat genetic resources |
title_full |
Optimal search in ex situ collections of wheat genetic resources |
title_fullStr |
Optimal search in ex situ collections of wheat genetic resources |
title_full_unstemmed |
Optimal search in ex situ collections of wheat genetic resources |
title_sort |
optimal search in ex situ collections of wheat genetic resources |
publisher |
CIMMYT |
publishDate |
1998 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10883/958 |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT gollind optimalsearchinexsitucollectionsofwheatgeneticresources AT smalem optimalsearchinexsitucollectionsofwheatgeneticresources AT skovmandb optimalsearchinexsitucollectionsofwheatgeneticresources |
_version_ |
1756086333572382720 |