Climate change impact and adaptation of rainfed cereal crops in sub-Saharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa's (SSA) demand for cereals is projected to more than double by 2050. Climate change is generally assumed to add to the future challenges of the needed productivity increase. This study aimed to assess (i) the potential climate change impact on four key rainfed cereals (maize, millet, sorghum and wheat) in ten SSA countries namely Burkina Faso, Ghana, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia using local data and national expertise, and (ii) the potential of cultivar adaptation to climate change for the four crops. We assessed effects on rainfed potential cereal yields per crop and aggregated these to regional level in West (WA), East and Southern Africa (ESA). We made use of a rigorous agronomic dataset for 120 locations in the ten countries and performed simulations of rainfed potential yield (Yw) using bias-corrected climate data from five GCMs, three time periods (1995–2014 as baseline, 2040–2059, and 2080–2099) and two scenarios (SSP3–7.0 as business as usual and SSP5–8.5 as pessimistic). We tested whether better adapted cultivars (taken from the pool of cultivars currently employed in the ten countries) could compensate for climate change. Results showed that climate change decreased aggregated Yw of cereals by around 6% in ESA by 2050, whereas projected impacts in WA were not significant. In 2090, however, the projected impact of climate change in both WA (−24%) and ESA (−9%). was significant. Cultivar adaptation partially compensated the negative impact of climate change. With the adaptation approach, 87% and 82% of potential production in ESA was estimated to occur with higher average Yw and lower variability in, respectively, 2050 and 2090, compared to the baseline period. In WA 67% and 43% of the potential production was estimated to experience such positive effects in 2050 and 2090, respectively. These results highlight remaining adaptation challenges for 13% (2050) and 18% (2090) in ESA and 33% (2050) and 57% (2090) in WA for potential production. In the context of the large yield gaps in SSA, this is likely to further increase challenges to meet cereal self-sufficiency for SSA, especially in WA.
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , |
---|---|
Format: | Article biblioteca |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Elsevier
2024
|
Subjects: | AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND BIOTECHNOLOGY, Cultivar, Maturity Class, Yield Variability, CROP MODELLING, VARIETIES, YIELDS, CLIMATE CHANGE, CEREAL CROPS, Sustainable Agrifood Systems, |
Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10883/23123 |
Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
id |
dig-cimmyt-10883-23123 |
---|---|
record_format |
koha |
spelling |
dig-cimmyt-10883-231232024-04-12T09:00:35Z Climate change impact and adaptation of rainfed cereal crops in sub-Saharan Africa Alimagham, S. Van Loon, M.P. Ramirez Villegas, J. Adjei-Nsiah, S. Baijukya, F. Bala, A. Chikowo, R. Silva, J.V. Abdelkader Mahamane Soulé Taulya, G. Tenorio, F.A. Fantaye, K.T. van Ittersum, M.K. AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND BIOTECHNOLOGY Cultivar Maturity Class Yield Variability CROP MODELLING VARIETIES YIELDS CLIMATE CHANGE CEREAL CROPS Sustainable Agrifood Systems Sub-Saharan Africa's (SSA) demand for cereals is projected to more than double by 2050. Climate change is generally assumed to add to the future challenges of the needed productivity increase. This study aimed to assess (i) the potential climate change impact on four key rainfed cereals (maize, millet, sorghum and wheat) in ten SSA countries namely Burkina Faso, Ghana, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia using local data and national expertise, and (ii) the potential of cultivar adaptation to climate change for the four crops. We assessed effects on rainfed potential cereal yields per crop and aggregated these to regional level in West (WA), East and Southern Africa (ESA). We made use of a rigorous agronomic dataset for 120 locations in the ten countries and performed simulations of rainfed potential yield (Yw) using bias-corrected climate data from five GCMs, three time periods (1995–2014 as baseline, 2040–2059, and 2080–2099) and two scenarios (SSP3–7.0 as business as usual and SSP5–8.5 as pessimistic). We tested whether better adapted cultivars (taken from the pool of cultivars currently employed in the ten countries) could compensate for climate change. Results showed that climate change decreased aggregated Yw of cereals by around 6% in ESA by 2050, whereas projected impacts in WA were not significant. In 2090, however, the projected impact of climate change in both WA (−24%) and ESA (−9%). was significant. Cultivar adaptation partially compensated the negative impact of climate change. With the adaptation approach, 87% and 82% of potential production in ESA was estimated to occur with higher average Yw and lower variability in, respectively, 2050 and 2090, compared to the baseline period. In WA 67% and 43% of the potential production was estimated to experience such positive effects in 2050 and 2090, respectively. These results highlight remaining adaptation challenges for 13% (2050) and 18% (2090) in ESA and 33% (2050) and 57% (2090) in WA for potential production. In the context of the large yield gaps in SSA, this is likely to further increase challenges to meet cereal self-sufficiency for SSA, especially in WA. 2024-04-11T20:30:12Z 2024-04-11T20:30:12Z 2024 Article Published Version https://hdl.handle.net/10883/23123 10.1016/j.eja.2024.127137 English Excellence in Agronomy Climate Resilience CIMMYT manages Intellectual Assets as International Public Goods. The user is free to download, print, store and share this work. In case you want to translate or create any other derivative work and share or distribute such translation/derivative work, please contact CIMMYT-Knowledge-Center@cgiar.org indicating the work you want to use and the kind of use you intend; CIMMYT will contact you with the suitable license for that purpose Open Access Africa South of Sahara Amsterdam (Netherlands) Elsevier 155 1161-0301 European Journal of Agronomy 127137 |
institution |
CIMMYT |
collection |
DSpace |
country |
México |
countrycode |
MX |
component |
Bibliográfico |
access |
En linea |
databasecode |
dig-cimmyt |
tag |
biblioteca |
region |
America del Norte |
libraryname |
CIMMYT Library |
language |
English |
topic |
AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND BIOTECHNOLOGY Cultivar Maturity Class Yield Variability CROP MODELLING VARIETIES YIELDS CLIMATE CHANGE CEREAL CROPS Sustainable Agrifood Systems AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND BIOTECHNOLOGY Cultivar Maturity Class Yield Variability CROP MODELLING VARIETIES YIELDS CLIMATE CHANGE CEREAL CROPS Sustainable Agrifood Systems |
spellingShingle |
AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND BIOTECHNOLOGY Cultivar Maturity Class Yield Variability CROP MODELLING VARIETIES YIELDS CLIMATE CHANGE CEREAL CROPS Sustainable Agrifood Systems AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND BIOTECHNOLOGY Cultivar Maturity Class Yield Variability CROP MODELLING VARIETIES YIELDS CLIMATE CHANGE CEREAL CROPS Sustainable Agrifood Systems Alimagham, S. Van Loon, M.P. Ramirez Villegas, J. Adjei-Nsiah, S. Baijukya, F. Bala, A. Chikowo, R. Silva, J.V. Abdelkader Mahamane Soulé Taulya, G. Tenorio, F.A. Fantaye, K.T. van Ittersum, M.K. Climate change impact and adaptation of rainfed cereal crops in sub-Saharan Africa |
description |
Sub-Saharan Africa's (SSA) demand for cereals is projected to more than double by 2050. Climate change is generally assumed to add to the future challenges of the needed productivity increase. This study aimed to assess (i) the potential climate change impact on four key rainfed cereals (maize, millet, sorghum and wheat) in ten SSA countries namely Burkina Faso, Ghana, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia using local data and national expertise, and (ii) the potential of cultivar adaptation to climate change for the four crops. We assessed effects on rainfed potential cereal yields per crop and aggregated these to regional level in West (WA), East and Southern Africa (ESA). We made use of a rigorous agronomic dataset for 120 locations in the ten countries and performed simulations of rainfed potential yield (Yw) using bias-corrected climate data from five GCMs, three time periods (1995–2014 as baseline, 2040–2059, and 2080–2099) and two scenarios (SSP3–7.0 as business as usual and SSP5–8.5 as pessimistic). We tested whether better adapted cultivars (taken from the pool of cultivars currently employed in the ten countries) could compensate for climate change. Results showed that climate change decreased aggregated Yw of cereals by around 6% in ESA by 2050, whereas projected impacts in WA were not significant. In 2090, however, the projected impact of climate change in both WA (−24%) and ESA (−9%). was significant. Cultivar adaptation partially compensated the negative impact of climate change. With the adaptation approach, 87% and 82% of potential production in ESA was estimated to occur with higher average Yw and lower variability in, respectively, 2050 and 2090, compared to the baseline period. In WA 67% and 43% of the potential production was estimated to experience such positive effects in 2050 and 2090, respectively. These results highlight remaining adaptation challenges for 13% (2050) and 18% (2090) in ESA and 33% (2050) and 57% (2090) in WA for potential production. In the context of the large yield gaps in SSA, this is likely to further increase challenges to meet cereal self-sufficiency for SSA, especially in WA. |
format |
Article |
topic_facet |
AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND BIOTECHNOLOGY Cultivar Maturity Class Yield Variability CROP MODELLING VARIETIES YIELDS CLIMATE CHANGE CEREAL CROPS Sustainable Agrifood Systems |
author |
Alimagham, S. Van Loon, M.P. Ramirez Villegas, J. Adjei-Nsiah, S. Baijukya, F. Bala, A. Chikowo, R. Silva, J.V. Abdelkader Mahamane Soulé Taulya, G. Tenorio, F.A. Fantaye, K.T. van Ittersum, M.K. |
author_facet |
Alimagham, S. Van Loon, M.P. Ramirez Villegas, J. Adjei-Nsiah, S. Baijukya, F. Bala, A. Chikowo, R. Silva, J.V. Abdelkader Mahamane Soulé Taulya, G. Tenorio, F.A. Fantaye, K.T. van Ittersum, M.K. |
author_sort |
Alimagham, S. |
title |
Climate change impact and adaptation of rainfed cereal crops in sub-Saharan Africa |
title_short |
Climate change impact and adaptation of rainfed cereal crops in sub-Saharan Africa |
title_full |
Climate change impact and adaptation of rainfed cereal crops in sub-Saharan Africa |
title_fullStr |
Climate change impact and adaptation of rainfed cereal crops in sub-Saharan Africa |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate change impact and adaptation of rainfed cereal crops in sub-Saharan Africa |
title_sort |
climate change impact and adaptation of rainfed cereal crops in sub-saharan africa |
publisher |
Elsevier |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/10883/23123 |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT alimaghams climatechangeimpactandadaptationofrainfedcerealcropsinsubsaharanafrica AT vanloonmp climatechangeimpactandadaptationofrainfedcerealcropsinsubsaharanafrica AT ramirezvillegasj climatechangeimpactandadaptationofrainfedcerealcropsinsubsaharanafrica AT adjeinsiahs climatechangeimpactandadaptationofrainfedcerealcropsinsubsaharanafrica AT baijukyaf climatechangeimpactandadaptationofrainfedcerealcropsinsubsaharanafrica AT balaa climatechangeimpactandadaptationofrainfedcerealcropsinsubsaharanafrica AT chikowor climatechangeimpactandadaptationofrainfedcerealcropsinsubsaharanafrica AT silvajv climatechangeimpactandadaptationofrainfedcerealcropsinsubsaharanafrica AT abdelkadermahamanesoule climatechangeimpactandadaptationofrainfedcerealcropsinsubsaharanafrica AT taulyag climatechangeimpactandadaptationofrainfedcerealcropsinsubsaharanafrica AT tenoriofa climatechangeimpactandadaptationofrainfedcerealcropsinsubsaharanafrica AT fantayekt climatechangeimpactandadaptationofrainfedcerealcropsinsubsaharanafrica AT vanittersummk climatechangeimpactandadaptationofrainfedcerealcropsinsubsaharanafrica |
_version_ |
1798165277169418240 |