Climate impact and adaptation to heat and drought stress of regional and global wheat production
Wheat (Triticum aestivum) is the most widely grown food crop in the world threatened by future climate change. In this study, we simulated climate change impacts and adaptation strategies for wheat globally using new crop genetic traits (CGT), including increased heat tolerance, early vigor to increase early crop water use, late flowering to reverse an earlier anthesis in warmer conditions, and the combined traits with additional nitrogen (N) fertilizer applications, as an option to maximize genetic gains. These simulations were completed using three wheat crop models and five Global Climate Models (GCM) for RCP 8.5 at mid-century. Crop simulations were compared with country, US state, and US county grain yield and production. Wheat yield and production from high-yielding and low-yielding countries were mostly captured by the model ensemble mean. However, US state and county yields and production were often poorly reproduced, with large variability in the models, which is likely due to poor soil and crop management input data at this scale. Climate change is projected to decrease global wheat production by -1.9% by mid-century. However, the most negative impacts are projected to affect developing countries in tropical regions. The model ensemble mean suggests large negative yield impacts for African and Southern Asian countries where food security is already a problem. Yields are predicted to decline by -15% in African countries and -16% in Southern Asian countries by 2050. Introducing CGT as an adaptation to climate change improved wheat yield in many regions, but due to poor nutrient management, many developing countries only benefited from adaptation from CGT when combined with additional N fertilizer. As growing conditions and the impact from climate change on wheat vary across the globe, region-specific adaptation strategies need to be explored to increase the possible benefits of adaptations to climate change in the future.
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
---|---|
Format: | Article biblioteca |
Language: | English |
Published: |
IOP Publishing
2021
|
Subjects: | AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND BIOTECHNOLOGY, WHEAT, CROP PRODUCTION, CLIMATE CHANGE, HEAT STRESS, DROUGHT STRESS, |
Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10883/21118 |
Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
id |
dig-cimmyt-10883-21118 |
---|---|
record_format |
koha |
spelling |
dig-cimmyt-10883-211182021-05-26T09:00:15Z Climate impact and adaptation to heat and drought stress of regional and global wheat production Pequeno, D.N.L. Hernandez-Ochoa, I.M. Reynolds, M.P. Sonder, K. Molero, A. Robertson, R. da Silva Sabino Lopes, M. Wei Xiong Kropff, M. Asseng, S. AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND BIOTECHNOLOGY WHEAT CROP PRODUCTION CLIMATE CHANGE HEAT STRESS DROUGHT STRESS Wheat (Triticum aestivum) is the most widely grown food crop in the world threatened by future climate change. In this study, we simulated climate change impacts and adaptation strategies for wheat globally using new crop genetic traits (CGT), including increased heat tolerance, early vigor to increase early crop water use, late flowering to reverse an earlier anthesis in warmer conditions, and the combined traits with additional nitrogen (N) fertilizer applications, as an option to maximize genetic gains. These simulations were completed using three wheat crop models and five Global Climate Models (GCM) for RCP 8.5 at mid-century. Crop simulations were compared with country, US state, and US county grain yield and production. Wheat yield and production from high-yielding and low-yielding countries were mostly captured by the model ensemble mean. However, US state and county yields and production were often poorly reproduced, with large variability in the models, which is likely due to poor soil and crop management input data at this scale. Climate change is projected to decrease global wheat production by -1.9% by mid-century. However, the most negative impacts are projected to affect developing countries in tropical regions. The model ensemble mean suggests large negative yield impacts for African and Southern Asian countries where food security is already a problem. Yields are predicted to decline by -15% in African countries and -16% in Southern Asian countries by 2050. Introducing CGT as an adaptation to climate change improved wheat yield in many regions, but due to poor nutrient management, many developing countries only benefited from adaptation from CGT when combined with additional N fertilizer. As growing conditions and the impact from climate change on wheat vary across the globe, region-specific adaptation strategies need to be explored to increase the possible benefits of adaptations to climate change in the future. 2021-01-14T01:20:14Z 2021-01-14T01:20:14Z 2021 Article Published Version https://hdl.handle.net/10883/21118 10.1088/1748-9326/abd970 English CIMMYT manages Intellectual Assets as International Public Goods. The user is free to download, print, store and share this work. In case you want to translate or create any other derivative work and share or distribute such translation/derivative work, please contact CIMMYT-Knowledge-Center@cgiar.org indicating the work you want to use and the kind of use you intend; CIMMYT will contact you with the suitable license for that purpose Open Access United Kingdom IOP Publishing 5 16 1748-9326 Environmental Research Letters 054070 |
institution |
CIMMYT |
collection |
DSpace |
country |
México |
countrycode |
MX |
component |
Bibliográfico |
access |
En linea |
databasecode |
dig-cimmyt |
tag |
biblioteca |
region |
America del Norte |
libraryname |
CIMMYT Library |
language |
English |
topic |
AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND BIOTECHNOLOGY WHEAT CROP PRODUCTION CLIMATE CHANGE HEAT STRESS DROUGHT STRESS AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND BIOTECHNOLOGY WHEAT CROP PRODUCTION CLIMATE CHANGE HEAT STRESS DROUGHT STRESS |
spellingShingle |
AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND BIOTECHNOLOGY WHEAT CROP PRODUCTION CLIMATE CHANGE HEAT STRESS DROUGHT STRESS AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND BIOTECHNOLOGY WHEAT CROP PRODUCTION CLIMATE CHANGE HEAT STRESS DROUGHT STRESS Pequeno, D.N.L. Hernandez-Ochoa, I.M. Reynolds, M.P. Sonder, K. Molero, A. Robertson, R. da Silva Sabino Lopes, M. Wei Xiong Kropff, M. Asseng, S. Climate impact and adaptation to heat and drought stress of regional and global wheat production |
description |
Wheat (Triticum aestivum) is the most widely grown food crop in the world threatened by future climate change. In this study, we simulated climate change impacts and adaptation strategies for wheat globally using new crop genetic traits (CGT), including increased heat tolerance, early vigor to increase early crop water use, late flowering to reverse an earlier anthesis in warmer conditions, and the combined traits with additional nitrogen (N) fertilizer applications, as an option to maximize genetic gains. These simulations were completed using three wheat crop models and five Global Climate Models (GCM) for RCP 8.5 at mid-century. Crop simulations were compared with country, US state, and US county grain yield and production. Wheat yield and production from high-yielding and low-yielding countries were mostly captured by the model ensemble mean. However, US state and county yields and production were often poorly reproduced, with large variability in the models, which is likely due to poor soil and crop management input data at this scale. Climate change is projected to decrease global wheat production by -1.9% by mid-century. However, the most negative impacts are projected to affect developing countries in tropical regions. The model ensemble mean suggests large negative yield impacts for African and Southern Asian countries where food security is already a problem. Yields are predicted to decline by -15% in African countries and -16% in Southern Asian countries by 2050. Introducing CGT as an adaptation to climate change improved wheat yield in many regions, but due to poor nutrient management, many developing countries only benefited from adaptation from CGT when combined with additional N fertilizer. As growing conditions and the impact from climate change on wheat vary across the globe, region-specific adaptation strategies need to be explored to increase the possible benefits of adaptations to climate change in the future. |
format |
Article |
topic_facet |
AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND BIOTECHNOLOGY WHEAT CROP PRODUCTION CLIMATE CHANGE HEAT STRESS DROUGHT STRESS |
author |
Pequeno, D.N.L. Hernandez-Ochoa, I.M. Reynolds, M.P. Sonder, K. Molero, A. Robertson, R. da Silva Sabino Lopes, M. Wei Xiong Kropff, M. Asseng, S. |
author_facet |
Pequeno, D.N.L. Hernandez-Ochoa, I.M. Reynolds, M.P. Sonder, K. Molero, A. Robertson, R. da Silva Sabino Lopes, M. Wei Xiong Kropff, M. Asseng, S. |
author_sort |
Pequeno, D.N.L. |
title |
Climate impact and adaptation to heat and drought stress of regional and global wheat production |
title_short |
Climate impact and adaptation to heat and drought stress of regional and global wheat production |
title_full |
Climate impact and adaptation to heat and drought stress of regional and global wheat production |
title_fullStr |
Climate impact and adaptation to heat and drought stress of regional and global wheat production |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate impact and adaptation to heat and drought stress of regional and global wheat production |
title_sort |
climate impact and adaptation to heat and drought stress of regional and global wheat production |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/10883/21118 |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT pequenodnl climateimpactandadaptationtoheatanddroughtstressofregionalandglobalwheatproduction AT hernandezochoaim climateimpactandadaptationtoheatanddroughtstressofregionalandglobalwheatproduction AT reynoldsmp climateimpactandadaptationtoheatanddroughtstressofregionalandglobalwheatproduction AT sonderk climateimpactandadaptationtoheatanddroughtstressofregionalandglobalwheatproduction AT moleroa climateimpactandadaptationtoheatanddroughtstressofregionalandglobalwheatproduction AT robertsonr climateimpactandadaptationtoheatanddroughtstressofregionalandglobalwheatproduction AT dasilvasabinolopesm climateimpactandadaptationtoheatanddroughtstressofregionalandglobalwheatproduction AT weixiong climateimpactandadaptationtoheatanddroughtstressofregionalandglobalwheatproduction AT kropffm climateimpactandadaptationtoheatanddroughtstressofregionalandglobalwheatproduction AT assengs climateimpactandadaptationtoheatanddroughtstressofregionalandglobalwheatproduction |
_version_ |
1756086943187206144 |