Assessing adoption potential in a risky environment: the case of perennial pigeonpea
Perennial crops offer the opportunity to harvest from the same plant many times over several years while reducing labor and seed costs, reducing emissions and increasing biomass input into the soil. We use system dynamics modeling to combine data from field experiments, crop modeling and choice experiments to explore the potential for adoption and diffusion of a sustainable agriculture technology in a risky environment with high variability in annual rainfall: the perennial management of pigeonpea in maize-based systems of Malawi. Production estimates from a crop model for the annual intercrop system and data from field experiments on ratooning for the perennial system provided the information to create a stochastic production model. Data from choice experiments posed by a farmer survey conducted in three Malawi districts provide the information for parameters on farmers’ preferences for the attributes of the perennial system. The perennial pigeonpea technology appeared clearly superior in scenarios where average values for maize yield and pigeonpea biomass production were held constant. Adoption was fastest in scenarios where relatively dry growing seasons showcased the benefits of the perennial system, suggesting that perennial management may be appropriate in marginal locations. The potential for adoption was reduced greatly when stochasticity in yields and seasons combine with significant social pressure to conform. The mechanism for this is that low yields suppress adoption and increase disadoption due to the dynamics of trust in the technology. This finding is not unique to perennial pigeonpea, but suggests that a critical factor in explaining low adoption rates of any new agricultural technology is the stochasticity in a technology’s performance. Understanding how that stochasticity interacts with the social dynamics of learning skills and communicating trust is a critical feature for the successful deployment of sustainable agricultural technologies, and a novel finding of our study.
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Elsevier
2019
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Subjects: | AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND BIOTECHNOLOGY, PERENNIALS, CROP MODELLING, SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE, |
Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10883/20064 |
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dig-cimmyt-10883-200642021-08-02T16:40:40Z Assessing adoption potential in a risky environment: the case of perennial pigeonpea Grabowski, P. Schmitt Olabisi, L. Jelili Adebiyi Waldman, K. Richardson, R. Rusinamhodzi, L. Snapp, S.S. AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND BIOTECHNOLOGY PERENNIALS CROP MODELLING SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE Perennial crops offer the opportunity to harvest from the same plant many times over several years while reducing labor and seed costs, reducing emissions and increasing biomass input into the soil. We use system dynamics modeling to combine data from field experiments, crop modeling and choice experiments to explore the potential for adoption and diffusion of a sustainable agriculture technology in a risky environment with high variability in annual rainfall: the perennial management of pigeonpea in maize-based systems of Malawi. Production estimates from a crop model for the annual intercrop system and data from field experiments on ratooning for the perennial system provided the information to create a stochastic production model. Data from choice experiments posed by a farmer survey conducted in three Malawi districts provide the information for parameters on farmers’ preferences for the attributes of the perennial system. The perennial pigeonpea technology appeared clearly superior in scenarios where average values for maize yield and pigeonpea biomass production were held constant. Adoption was fastest in scenarios where relatively dry growing seasons showcased the benefits of the perennial system, suggesting that perennial management may be appropriate in marginal locations. The potential for adoption was reduced greatly when stochasticity in yields and seasons combine with significant social pressure to conform. The mechanism for this is that low yields suppress adoption and increase disadoption due to the dynamics of trust in the technology. This finding is not unique to perennial pigeonpea, but suggests that a critical factor in explaining low adoption rates of any new agricultural technology is the stochasticity in a technology’s performance. Understanding how that stochasticity interacts with the social dynamics of learning skills and communicating trust is a critical feature for the successful deployment of sustainable agricultural technologies, and a novel finding of our study. 89-99 2019-03-02T01:05:11Z 2019-03-02T01:05:11Z 2019 Article Published Version 0313-521X https://hdl.handle.net/10883/20064 10.1016/j.agsy.2019.01.001 English CIMMYT manages Intellectual Assets as International Public Goods. The user is free to download, print, store and share this work. In case you want to translate or create any other derivative work and share or distribute such translation/derivative work, please contact CIMMYT-Knowledge-Center@cgiar.org indicating the work you want to use and the kind of use you intend; CIMMYT will contact you with the suitable license for that purpose. Open Access PDF United Kingdom Elsevier 171 Agricultural Systems |
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AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND BIOTECHNOLOGY PERENNIALS CROP MODELLING SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND BIOTECHNOLOGY PERENNIALS CROP MODELLING SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE |
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AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND BIOTECHNOLOGY PERENNIALS CROP MODELLING SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND BIOTECHNOLOGY PERENNIALS CROP MODELLING SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE Grabowski, P. Schmitt Olabisi, L. Jelili Adebiyi Waldman, K. Richardson, R. Rusinamhodzi, L. Snapp, S.S. Assessing adoption potential in a risky environment: the case of perennial pigeonpea |
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Perennial crops offer the opportunity to harvest from the same plant many times over several years while reducing labor and seed costs, reducing emissions and increasing biomass input into the soil. We use system dynamics modeling to combine data from field experiments, crop modeling and choice experiments to explore the potential for adoption and diffusion of a sustainable agriculture technology in a risky environment with high variability in annual rainfall: the perennial management of pigeonpea in maize-based systems of Malawi. Production estimates from a crop model for the annual intercrop system and data from field experiments on ratooning for the perennial system provided the information to create a stochastic production model. Data from choice experiments posed by a farmer survey conducted in three Malawi districts provide the information for parameters on farmers’ preferences for the attributes of the perennial system. The perennial pigeonpea technology appeared clearly superior in scenarios where average values for maize yield and pigeonpea biomass production were held constant. Adoption was fastest in scenarios where relatively dry growing seasons showcased the benefits of the perennial system, suggesting that perennial management may be appropriate in marginal locations. The potential for adoption was reduced greatly when stochasticity in yields and seasons combine with significant social pressure to conform. The mechanism for this is that low yields suppress adoption and increase disadoption due to the dynamics of trust in the technology. This finding is not unique to perennial pigeonpea, but suggests that a critical factor in explaining low adoption rates of any new agricultural technology is the stochasticity in a technology’s performance. Understanding how that stochasticity interacts with the social dynamics of learning skills and communicating trust is a critical feature for the successful deployment of sustainable agricultural technologies, and a novel finding of our study. |
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Article |
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AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND BIOTECHNOLOGY PERENNIALS CROP MODELLING SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE |
author |
Grabowski, P. Schmitt Olabisi, L. Jelili Adebiyi Waldman, K. Richardson, R. Rusinamhodzi, L. Snapp, S.S. |
author_facet |
Grabowski, P. Schmitt Olabisi, L. Jelili Adebiyi Waldman, K. Richardson, R. Rusinamhodzi, L. Snapp, S.S. |
author_sort |
Grabowski, P. |
title |
Assessing adoption potential in a risky environment: the case of perennial pigeonpea |
title_short |
Assessing adoption potential in a risky environment: the case of perennial pigeonpea |
title_full |
Assessing adoption potential in a risky environment: the case of perennial pigeonpea |
title_fullStr |
Assessing adoption potential in a risky environment: the case of perennial pigeonpea |
title_full_unstemmed |
Assessing adoption potential in a risky environment: the case of perennial pigeonpea |
title_sort |
assessing adoption potential in a risky environment: the case of perennial pigeonpea |
publisher |
Elsevier |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/10883/20064 |
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