Wind stilling-reversal across Sweden: The impact of land-use and large-scale atmospheric circulation changes
This study analyses for the first time the break in the stilling detected by previous research around 2010, with focus in Sweden using homogenized near-surface mean and gust wind speed observations for 1997–2019. During the recent past two decades, both mean and gust wind magnitude and frequency (exceeding the 90th percentile) underwent nonlinear changes, driven by the dominant winter variability. In particular, consistent with previous studies, the significant (p < .05) stilling ceased in 2003, followed by no clear trend afterwards. The detected stilling-reversal is linked to large-scale atmospheric circulation changes, in particular to the North Atlantic Oscillation for both mean and gust wind changes, and the intensity changes of extratropical cyclones passing across Sweden especially for wind gusts. Furthermore, in different wind change phases, the observed wind distribution did not vary uniformly for the various wind speed ranges; instead, strong winds drove most of the changes. In the same way, increases in gust winds are greater compared to changes in mean wind speed conditions. The stilling-reversal is also identified by the ERA5 reanalysis, where large-scale atmospheric circulation changes are captured. But the background slowdown detected in most stations does not appear in the ERA5 data as the observed increase in forest cover is not considered in the reanalysis. This study reveals that, in addition to the large-scale interannual variability, changes in surface roughness (e.g., changes in forest cover) contribute to the observed wind variability across Sweden.
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Format: | artículo biblioteca |
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Royal Meteorological Society (Great Britain)
2022-02
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Subjects: | ERA5, Extratropical cyclones, Mean and gust wind speeds, NAO, Stilling-reversal phenomena, Sweden, |
Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10261/284603 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100011033 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003329 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003566 |
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dig-cide-es-10261-2846032022-12-10T02:18:32Z Wind stilling-reversal across Sweden: The impact of land-use and large-scale atmospheric circulation changes Minola, L. Reese, Heather Lai, Hui-Wen Azorín-Molina, César Guijarro, José A. Son, Seok-Woo Chen, Deliang Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries (South Korea) Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (España) Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (España) Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España) Swedish Research Council ERA5 Extratropical cyclones Mean and gust wind speeds NAO Stilling-reversal phenomena Sweden This study analyses for the first time the break in the stilling detected by previous research around 2010, with focus in Sweden using homogenized near-surface mean and gust wind speed observations for 1997–2019. During the recent past two decades, both mean and gust wind magnitude and frequency (exceeding the 90th percentile) underwent nonlinear changes, driven by the dominant winter variability. In particular, consistent with previous studies, the significant (p < .05) stilling ceased in 2003, followed by no clear trend afterwards. The detected stilling-reversal is linked to large-scale atmospheric circulation changes, in particular to the North Atlantic Oscillation for both mean and gust wind changes, and the intensity changes of extratropical cyclones passing across Sweden especially for wind gusts. Furthermore, in different wind change phases, the observed wind distribution did not vary uniformly for the various wind speed ranges; instead, strong winds drove most of the changes. In the same way, increases in gust winds are greater compared to changes in mean wind speed conditions. The stilling-reversal is also identified by the ERA5 reanalysis, where large-scale atmospheric circulation changes are captured. But the background slowdown detected in most stations does not appear in the ERA5 data as the observed increase in forest cover is not considered in the reanalysis. This study reveals that, in addition to the large-scale interannual variability, changes in surface roughness (e.g., changes in forest cover) contribute to the observed wind variability across Sweden. Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries of Korea, Grant/Award Number: 20210427; Ramon y Cajal, Grant/Award Number: RYC-2017-22830; Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, Grant/Award Number: RTI2018-095749-A-I00; Swedish Research Council, Grant/Award Number: 2017-03780 2022-12-09T14:10:06Z 2022-12-09T14:10:06Z 2022-02 2022-12-09T14:10:06Z artículo doi: 10.1002/joc.7289 issn: 0899-8418 e-issn: 1097-0088 International Journal of Climatology 42(2): 1049-1071 (2022) http://hdl.handle.net/10261/284603 10.1002/joc.7289 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100011033 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003329 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003566 #PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE# #PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE# info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MINECO/RYC-2017-22830 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2017-2020/RTI2018-095749-A-I00/ES/EVALUACION Y ATRIBUCION DE LA VARIABILIDAD DE LA VELOCIDAD MEDIA Y LAS RACHAS MAXIMAS DE VIENTO: CAUSAS DEL FENOMENO STILLING/ Publisher's version http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.7289 Sí open application/pdf Royal Meteorological Society (Great Britain) |
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ERA5 Extratropical cyclones Mean and gust wind speeds NAO Stilling-reversal phenomena Sweden ERA5 Extratropical cyclones Mean and gust wind speeds NAO Stilling-reversal phenomena Sweden |
spellingShingle |
ERA5 Extratropical cyclones Mean and gust wind speeds NAO Stilling-reversal phenomena Sweden ERA5 Extratropical cyclones Mean and gust wind speeds NAO Stilling-reversal phenomena Sweden Minola, L. Reese, Heather Lai, Hui-Wen Azorín-Molina, César Guijarro, José A. Son, Seok-Woo Chen, Deliang Wind stilling-reversal across Sweden: The impact of land-use and large-scale atmospheric circulation changes |
description |
This study analyses for the first time the break in the stilling detected by previous research around 2010, with focus in Sweden using homogenized near-surface mean and gust wind speed observations for 1997–2019. During the recent past two decades, both mean and gust wind magnitude and frequency (exceeding the 90th percentile) underwent nonlinear changes, driven by the dominant winter variability. In particular, consistent with previous studies, the significant (p < .05) stilling ceased in 2003, followed by no clear trend afterwards. The detected stilling-reversal is linked to large-scale atmospheric circulation changes, in particular to the North Atlantic Oscillation for both mean and gust wind changes, and the intensity changes of extratropical cyclones passing across Sweden especially for wind gusts. Furthermore, in different wind change phases, the observed wind distribution did not vary uniformly for the various wind speed ranges; instead, strong winds drove most of the changes. In the same way, increases in gust winds are greater compared to changes in mean wind speed conditions. The stilling-reversal is also identified by the ERA5 reanalysis, where large-scale atmospheric circulation changes are captured. But the background slowdown detected in most stations does not appear in the ERA5 data as the observed increase in forest cover is not considered in the reanalysis. This study reveals that, in addition to the large-scale interannual variability, changes in surface roughness (e.g., changes in forest cover) contribute to the observed wind variability across Sweden. |
author2 |
Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries (South Korea) |
author_facet |
Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries (South Korea) Minola, L. Reese, Heather Lai, Hui-Wen Azorín-Molina, César Guijarro, José A. Son, Seok-Woo Chen, Deliang |
format |
artículo |
topic_facet |
ERA5 Extratropical cyclones Mean and gust wind speeds NAO Stilling-reversal phenomena Sweden |
author |
Minola, L. Reese, Heather Lai, Hui-Wen Azorín-Molina, César Guijarro, José A. Son, Seok-Woo Chen, Deliang |
author_sort |
Minola, L. |
title |
Wind stilling-reversal across Sweden: The impact of land-use and large-scale atmospheric circulation changes |
title_short |
Wind stilling-reversal across Sweden: The impact of land-use and large-scale atmospheric circulation changes |
title_full |
Wind stilling-reversal across Sweden: The impact of land-use and large-scale atmospheric circulation changes |
title_fullStr |
Wind stilling-reversal across Sweden: The impact of land-use and large-scale atmospheric circulation changes |
title_full_unstemmed |
Wind stilling-reversal across Sweden: The impact of land-use and large-scale atmospheric circulation changes |
title_sort |
wind stilling-reversal across sweden: the impact of land-use and large-scale atmospheric circulation changes |
publisher |
Royal Meteorological Society (Great Britain) |
publishDate |
2022-02 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10261/284603 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100011033 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003329 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003566 |
work_keys_str_mv |
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_version_ |
1777665625539215360 |